A very important meeting, a key high-level statement.
At 3 p.m. yesterday, the meeting of the Financial Commission of the State Council was held, releasing a large amount of information about the stock market, the property market, the financial market, etc., among which the news about the property market made the property market breathe a sigh of relief.
Within two hours of the announcement, both A-shares and Hong Kong real estate stocks were fully red, and even many real estate stocks in Hong Kong stocks rose by more than 20%.
The confidence of the macro market is back, and the most difficult days of the property market are about to pass.
01
A high-profile meeting with fairly rare words, unprecedented
Judging from the participants, the standard of this financial meeting was quite high, and it was presided over by Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and director of the Financial Commission.
Among them, I think it is more important to make statements on macroeconomics, real estate enterprises, Chinese stocks, Hong Kong financial markets, and platform economic governance, and I have compiled the original text into a table and listed them for everyone to see.
At the end of the meeting, there is another sentence that is very, very critical and very direct: actively introduce policies that are beneficial to the market, and cautiously introduce contractionary policies.
This is a strong tone set for the macro market throughout this year.
In addition, some of the words used in the meeting are also worthy of in-depth study, which is quite severe, which is really rare.
(Source: Financial Associated Press)
Judging from the briefing, the words "prudent", "must", "resolute" appear many times, and even more "effectively assume their own responsibilities" and "accountability when necessary", all of which are very serious expressions.
The Financial Commission also offered accountability when necessary, and in this harsh language, the views expressed at the meeting were very clear and unambiguous.
In today's market environment, the relevant departments must study and introduce policies that are beneficial to the market.
We cannot do nothing to ensure the stable operation of the financial environment.
02
After such a serious statement, it was the departments that quickly followed up.
All departments united in their determination to line up and make military orders, starting with the central bank
(Source: Chinese Bank)
The first time to organize the meeting to convey the spirit of the meeting, and mentioned the study and deployment of the implementation of the work, the statement was very rapid.
In the past, the central bank's circular on the meeting was very peaceful, but this time the speed of its own meeting and the attitude reflected in the content emphasized at the meeting show the central bank's attitude of attaching importance to it.
(Source: Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission)
The Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission is the same, and it also held a meeting with a very important attitude to convey the spirit of the meeting and expressed its own attitude.
Look at the words "two establishments" and "two maintenance", which have already risen to the highest height.
Similarly, the SFC conveyed the spirit of the meeting.
We pay attention to these words, these three institutions, the attitude is very important and resolute, the tone used is very strong, indicating that they really recognize the importance of this meeting, but also came up with their own attitude, the following is the good.
In addition to the central bank, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Securities Regulatory Commission, and other departments, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and other departments are also strictly conveying the spirit of the meeting.
Even, last year's boiling real estate tax pilot, the Ministry of Finance also showed yesterday that this year does not have the conditions to expand the real estate tax point reform city.
Maybe there will be in the future, but this year is not suitable for any more contractionary policies.
This shows that this meeting is more influential and far-reaching than we believe.
It can be said that it is a collective rescue of the macro economy and a major meeting to implement the will of the top level.
03
The recent dismal market, which is rare in history, needs a cardiotonic agent
Why there are such rare meetings and quick follow-up of various departments is mainly because of the recent complex international context and economic environment.
Affected by the international situation, the economic environment has deteriorated visible to the naked eye, and there are also unstable voices.
The bigger background is that since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares have fallen far more than other stock markets around the world.
(Source: Chinese stocks that led the decline on March 12)
Who fell the hardest? It is actually a Chinese stock listed in the United States.
Chinese stocks are experiencing an unprecedented market cap drawdown, represented by Internet technology, including real estate stocks. Many Chinese-listed companies have rumored layoffs, and some layoffs have reached 30%.
Chinese stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A shares are all falling, such an abnormal decline, have to make people suspect that some short-selling forces behind the collective action, note, is a collective.
Of course, A shares are not allowed to be short, and as a result, the funds in the north, that is, foreign capital, are directly withdrawn for several days, and the amount of funds withdrawn every day is more than 10 billion yuan.
The whole stock market was in mourning, very tragic.
We do not analyze the reasons for the decline in stocks, only to say a little, if the expectations are good, who dares to go short?
The particularity of the international situation, as well as our previous financial policy was too tight, let foreign capital short us too much, listed companies are all facing a crisis.
That is why this crucial meeting is being convened at this very moment, the environment is encircling us and we must break through.
04
In the macro environment, there is also the real estate industry
The real estate data released by the National Bureau of Statistics for January and February this year looks relatively good overall.
When housing enterprises are busy repaying debts, the growth rate of development investment can actually be positive, which is actually not easy.
However, the data after that is not optimistic.
(Source: National Bureau of Statistics)
In January and February, the sales area and sales of commercial housing are declining, and the decline is more obvious, the sales area of commercial housing has dropped to -9.6%, and the sales of commercial housing have fallen by nearly 20%.
The inability to sell houses is also directly reflected in the shrinking of medium- and long-term loans for residents, which has negative growth for the first time in nearly 15 years
Medium and long-term loans, mainly refer to housing loans, especially personal mortgage loans, that is, the money borrowed has become less, and the money has become more, so there has been a negative growth, which directly shows that people's demand for housing has dropped to a very low position.
Although banks have actively implemented the "two red lines" policy before, resulting in a particularly slow lending rate, although credit has been significantly loose in these months, the market is still sluggish.
The downturn in real estate stocks has made the life of housing enterprises worse.
Let's take a look at the situation of Hong Kong-listed mainland real estate enterprises before this meeting.
On March 15, the real estate sector fell sharply for two consecutive days, and some media calculated that there were only 7 housing enterprises with a market value of 100 billion.
This was actually affected by the broader market at that time, and malicious shorting after being overly suppressed, which directly affected the overseas financing of housing enterprises.
The property market has now reached the time when it is necessary for the top level to rescue the market from the macro level, and it is necessary to release some dividends to boost expectations and confidence.
05
After waiting too long, the property market has never had such a good signal
Implemented in the real estate industry, in addition to the meeting directly proposed to the housing enterprises to resolve the risk of the response plan, to the housing enterprises of the new development model transformation of the supporting.
The follow-up policies of various departments also target the current pain points of housing enterprises
The traditional high debt and high turnover model of Evergrande and other housing enterprises is impossible to continue, and various departments will help housing enterprises to change in the direction of the new model, not just rely on the transformation of housing enterprises themselves.
Various departments have given some countermeasures to help housing enterprises transform at the meeting:
For example, the credit difficulties of housing enterprises will be solved by the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.
The CbRC directly addressed the pain point of the difficulty of credit for housing enterprises, and clearly stated that it would carry out M&A loans and support mergers and acquisitions projects of high-quality housing enterprises.
That is to say, it is necessary to relax on the credit side, and it should be easier for housing enterprises to apply for credit in the future, and the review of qualifications will also be relaxed a lot.
The financing difficulties of housing enterprises are solved by the CSRC.
The CSRC expressed the need to support the reasonable financing of housing enterprises, and its attitude in financing has become loose and very positive.
This means that in the future, when housing enterprises issue corporate bonds, the CSRC may relax the conditions to give the green light, including but not limited to green channels, rapid approval, etc., to help housing enterprises get financing for development as soon as possible.
As mentioned earlier, the Ministry of Finance said that it would not increase the property tax pilot city, which was relaxed on the demand side, pointing to the decline in residents' demand for housing purchases, to enhance residents' willingness to buy houses and boost market confidence.
Whether it is the central bank or the foreign exchange bureau, although they have not explicitly proposed specific measures for real estate, they have mentioned that they should coordinate policies with other departments to resolve the risks of real estate enterprises and promote the healthy development of the market.
They can standardize financing and control housing enterprises in the early stage, so that they will not have financial risks in the later stage.
To sum up, the benefits for housing enterprises mainly include: supporting mergers and acquisitions, credit relaxation, supporting reasonable financing needs, boosting the market, and helping housing enterprises resolve risks.
All of them are helping housing enterprises to resolve the risks they are now facing, and let high-quality housing enterprises get more dividends in this time when various departments join forces.
All policies, all statements, all that is given is confidence.
In just one day, the market rebound was also very obvious, and many Chinese stocks rose by more than 30% in a single day.
Real estate stocks are also red across the board, Xuhui rose 23.25%, Longguang Group, China Aoyuan rose more than 20%, it can be said that there was a rapid counterattack.
The development of the property market has been until now, and similar positives have been heard before, but the signal has never been so strong and direct as it is now.
It also makes us more confident and looks forward to the development of the industry in the future.