Real estate stocks, which have fallen overall in recent days, rose rapidly in the afternoon of March 16, ushering in a big rise, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) rose by 3.02% by the close.
At the news level, a number of heavy statements are crucial to stabilizing the confidence of the real estate market at present.
The Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting and proposed that monetary policy should be actively responded to, and new loans should maintain moderate growth. Regarding real estate enterprises, it is necessary to study and propose effective prevention and mitigation of risk response plans in a timely manner, and propose supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model.
There is also an update on the real estate tax, which is of great concern to the market. The Ministry of Finance has made it clear that some cities have carried out investigations and preliminary studies, comprehensively considering the situation in all aspects, and do not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year.
In addition, the central bank, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange all made statements on the same day to prevent and resolve real estate market risks, actively promote the transformation of the real estate industry to change the development mode, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
A statement at a critical moment is conducive to restoring industry confidence
For the current real estate industry, confidence is more important than gold.
The living environment of the real estate industry cannot be ignored, since the second half of 2021, the real estate market has continued to cool, the growth rate of commercial housing sales has slid to negative growth, and the overall decline in house prices. Since the beginning of 2022, the sales performance of the real estate market can be described as the worst start year of the year. Among them, the growth rate of sales and investment has dropped to the lowest in the past 7 years, the land acquisition area fell by 42% year-on-year, and hit the largest decline in history, the real estate industry is still in a downward trend, and the industry confidence needs to be reshaped.
In addition, the real estate market is a wait-and-see mood, and the demand side is weak. In February 2022, medium- and long-term loans to the household sector fell by 45.9 billion yuan, the first time in history that there was negative growth. Among the funds in place for real estate development enterprises, personal mortgage loans in January and February 2022 fell by 16.9% year-on-year, an increase of 8.9 percentage points over the end of 2021.
In this context, the Financial Commission held a special meeting to express its position, which is extremely important and timely for the recovery of industry confidence, and it is also worth looking forward to the subsequent policy relaxation and market activation.
At present, the policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom has not really arrived, with the gradual recovery of market confidence, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other core first- and second-tier city markets are expected to take the lead in heating, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Xuzhou and other weak second-tier and strong third-tier city markets or will take turns to recover.
The pilot work of real estate tax reform will be postponed
For the real estate tax that everyone cares about, the Ministry of Finance has given a reassurance, that is, it does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of the real estate tax reform this year.
From the current environment, the macro-economy and social economy and the real estate market are facing greater downward pressure, the purchasing power of the consumer market is overdrawn, and the space for residents to continue to add leverage to buy houses is significantly limited, at this time, it is not the time window period for landing real estate tax.
Considering that the government work report of the two sessions also does not mention real estate tax, this year's real estate tax may be temporarily stranded, and the pilot work in some cities will be postponed.
In the short term, monetary policy focuses on stabilizing real estate
The Financial Commission held a special meeting to propose that monetary policy should be actively responded to, new loans should maintain moderate growth, and proposed to timely study and propose a strong and effective risk prevention and resolution plan; at the same time, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that it would actively promote the transformation of the development mode of the real estate industry, encourage institutions to carry out M&A loans in a sound and orderly manner, focus on supporting high-quality housing enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult housing enterprises, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
In the short term, the overall monetary policy will continue to be loose, and the implementation of monetary policy will be increased, and the RRR cut and interest rate cut will continue to help the economy grow steadily in the future.
For the real estate industry, monetary policy focuses on stabilizing real estate and enterprises in the short term.
On the one hand, the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises will be supported, and high-quality enterprises will be supported to carry out M&A loan financing, and state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and high-quality private enterprises may benefit more. The problem housing enterprises are cleared in an orderly manner, and practical solutions are given, and the policy bottom line of "guaranteeing the delivery of the building" cannot be broken, so as to protect the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers to the greatest extent.
On the other hand, due to the city's policies to promote a virtuous circle in the industry, the implementation of differentiated housing credit policies, to ensure that just need to meet the needs of improvement and new citizens to buy houses, the focus is on moderately reducing the down payment ratio, reducing mortgage interest rates, shortening the lending cycle, etc.
Promote the industry to explore new development models
The Financial Commission also mentioned a very important key point, that is, to propose supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model.
Previously, the government work report of the two sessions clearly proposed to explore a new development model, improve the housing market and security system, and accelerate the construction of a high-end market and low-end guaranteed housing system.
In the long run, it is necessary to explore and actively build a new development model for the industry, improve the housing market system and security system, and establish a linkage mechanism between people, housing and land. For example, in large and medium-sized cities with sustained net population inflows, vigorously develop the housing rental market, especially affordable rental housing, to better solve the housing problems of new citizens and new youth.
Through this round of in-depth adjustment of the real estate industry, it will change the original high-leverage model of excessive dependence on finance, resolutely curb the financialization of real estate bubbles, and truly reduce the debt ratio of enterprises and residents to a relatively safe level.
epilogue
This rare statement by many ministries and commissions has released a positive signal and boosted industry confidence at a critical moment. However, the central credit policy is moderately unbundled rather than comprehensively stimulated, not only to support residents' self-occupation and improved housing consumption, to support the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises, but also to resolutely curb the resurgence of the problem of real estate bubble financialization, after the adjustment of the real estate industry, the industry will bid farewell to the past high-leverage development model, explore new development model transformation, and achieve a virtuous circle.
Article source: Ding Zuyu commented on the property market
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