People in the jianghu, involuntarily?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its 22nd day, and the Japanese government has followed the pace of the United States deadly on the matter of "anti-Russia." Many people think that this is just a request from Washington, but they don't know that Tokyo has its own demands.
For example, the new prime minister, Fumio Kishida, who has been in office for less than half a year, and Shinzo Abe, Japan's former prime minister who served the longest term after the war, have different views on the "Russian-Japanese territorial dispute."
The turmoil in Ukraine has given Kishida Fumio the opportunity to "break the situation".
As early as 2016, in order to solve the problem of the four northern islands (russia known as the South Kuril Islands) as soon as possible, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took the initiative to propose 8 economic cooperation plans with Putin at the Russia-Japan summit.
With the implementation of the plan, the Russian side has gradually relaxed on the issue of territorial disputes. In 2018, Putin gave Abe a promise that Russia could "return" two of the four islands and conclude a peace treaty between the two countries.
However, the plan can not catch up with the change, Abe Shinzo resigned "due to illness" in the context of the epidemic, and the Russian side does not seem to recognize the successor Suga government, the previous commitment can not be discussed, Moscow even said in a tougher posture: there is no negotiation on the territorial issue!
As a result, the former 8 economic cooperation programs have become "loss-making transactions", and Kishida Fumio has long wanted to cancel them all. However, Abe is now the president of the LDP's largest faction, the QingheHui, and his forces still want to continue the political gains of that year.
After all, Abe still has ambitions for the "three entrances to the palace", and he hopes that when he comes to power again, he will be able to take back the two islands, conclude a contract, and complete the most glorious achievement of his political career.
But the Russian-Ukrainian conflict allows Kishida Fumio to sanction Russia in a just manner, which can not only "please" Washington, but also make economic cooperation stop losses in time, and also erase Abe's political achievements, so as to achieve the purpose of balancing the government and the opposition.
Heaven forbid, you can kill three eagles with one stone, why not Kishida Fumio?
However, the Russian side has also invested a lot of money in these economic cooperation projects, and Japan will not do it if it does not do it, so who will make up for these losses?
What's more, Tokyo's "fox fake tiger power" has to add sanctions many times on the grounds of "G7 countries advancing and retreating together", and Moscow cannot swallow this breath.
Thus, on March 15 and 16, the Russian Navy, with a total of four landing ships, crossed the Tsugaru Strait in two groups for two consecutive days. Moreover, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force observed that the decks of these warships were loaded with a large number of military vehicles.
From the map, the Tsugaru Strait, located between the Japanese islands of Honshu and Hokkaido, is an important passage from the Sea of Japan to the Pacific Ocean and an important part of the so-called "first island chain", and its geostrategic value need not be said.
But the Russians wanted to wear it, and more than twice. As early as March 10, 10 ships of the Russian Navy passed through the Tsugaru Strait and entered the Sea of Japan from the Pacific Ocean.
In addition, six Russian Navy ships crossed the Soya Strait, which is as important as the Tsugaru Strait, on March 14. In this way, the Russian Navy has broken through the first island chain four times in front of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces in about half a month.
With such fanfare, Russia conveyed 3 signals.
First, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has nothing to do with Japan, and whether the Russian Navy is increasing its troops to Ukraine is also not the turn of the Japanese government to "point fingers." Since Japan has designated these straits as international shipping lanes, the US military can cross them, and the Russian army can also cross them.
At the same time, the Russian military demonstrated its military transport capabilities, which can increase troops to Ukraine across the ocean, and can also send troops around Japan at a critical moment.
Second, the movement of the Russian military is not afraid of the "snooping" of the relevant countries, and what can be seen is nothing more than surface ships, but who can see the movement of strategic nuclear submarines? This is an invisible pressure to warn certain countries not to act rashly.
Third, Japan's sanctions against Russia are becoming more and more excessive, and at the same time, contacts with the Zelensky government are becoming more and more frequent, which are all "public opinion wars" in cooperation with the United States and Ukraine, and are also provocations that Moscow cannot tolerate.
On the 16th, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi and Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov held video talks and said that they would provide support to the Ukrainian side. Zelenskiy also wanted to make a video address to the Japanese Parliament, and Kishida Fumio had already responded positively.
It is worth mentioning that Zelenskiy just held a video speech in the US Congress yesterday, and hundreds of US congressmen at the scene stood up to applaud and even symbolically left a vacant seat in the first row, giving Zelenskiy, the "one-man" actor, the greatest "respect".
I have to say that the political arena is like a drama stage, politicians fight for acting skills, and international public opinion is clearly understood by the West.
Speaking of Japan, even if it is not a question of the situation between Russia and Ukraine or Russian-Japanese relations, the "struggle" between Kishida Fumio and Shinzo Abe has not stopped.
On the 16th local time, a source revealed that Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party held a security investigation meeting and began to discuss the appropriate form of "nuclear deterrence".
It is reported that the meeting invited relevant experts to assess whether the "nuclear sharing" policy of US nuclear weapons can be deployed and applied within the territory of Japan.
On this issue, on February 27, Shinzo Abe trumpeted the "nuclear sharing" argument on Japanese television, on the grounds that the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has made Japan doubt the existing security system.
However, Abe's statement has caused an uproar in international public opinion.
As the only country in the world that has suffered atomic bombing, Japan itself adheres to the three principles of "no possession, no manufacture, and no introduction of nuclear weapons", but now it wants to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory, which is definitely a dangerous and crazy idea.
Under the concern of neighboring countries, the Kishida government has repeatedly rejected the proposal to start a "nuclear sharing" discussion, and Japan's defense minister, Nobuo Kishi, also stated his position on March 1: Japan's idea of adhering to the "three principles of non-nuclear weapons" has not changed.
It is not difficult to see that with the background of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the issue of "nuclear sharing" has become the focus of struggle within the Japanese ruling party. As a big man in the party and without a real job, Abe only makes eye-catching remarks and does not care about the pressure of the Kishida government.
What do you think about that?
First, Kishida's choice of response is to adhere to the "Three Principles of Non-Nuclear-Weapon", but still allow political parties and private sectors to discuss "nuclear sharing", which is essentially a "peace and mud" initiative.
In particular, can the Liberal Democratic Party, as the ruling party, be generalized with other political parties? Moreover, Abe has deep roots and many fans within the Liberal Democratic Party, and such discussions will only increase Abe's reputation.
Second, judging from the current development trend of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Japan's discussion of the "nuclear sharing" issue may exacerbate tensions.
On the 14th of this month, Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng also publicly stated that if a nuclear leak occurs in Ukraine, the Japanese side is willing to help deal with it. In essence, Japan is still condemning the Russian occupation of Ukrainian nuclear facilities.
What's more, if Japan deploys nuclear weapons, the first to be threatened is its neighboring countries, and the security guarantees in the eastern region of Russia's transportation will be impossible to talk about. So to speak, it will still involve Russian-Japanese relations.
Finally, we have to talk about "nuclear safety". The tragic fukushima accident is still vivid, and the Japanese government has not dealt with the consequences of the nuclear power plant leak in the past 11 years.
In such an earthquake-prone country, the consequences would be unimaginable if nuclear weapons were damaged.
At 23:36 on the evening of the 16th, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred in the waters near Fukushima Prefecture in Japan. Subsequently, at 0:28 on the 17th, another earthquake of magnitude 3.9 occurred in the area. After 24 minutes, another 5.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in the surrounding area.
In just one and a half hours, three earthquakes occurred off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, and tsunami warnings were issued in many surrounding areas, which have killed 4 people and injured 107 people. Affected by the earthquake, there was a widespread power outage in the Kanto region, and a Shinkansen train was also derailed.
In such an environment, the normal maintenance of the operation of nuclear power plants requires fear, let alone the deployment of nuclear weapons. In this regard, it is still hoped that the Japanese government will have a clear understanding of the reality and stop doing things that are not conducive to regional peace and the well-being of the people.