Gold latest trend analysis:
The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as widely expected by the market, and after the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate hike, the short-term price of gold pulled higher, closing at $1928 an ounce, according to the latest dot plot, the Fed will raise interest rates six more times this year. In the following 30 minutes, Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference, saying that considering inflation and the situation in Russia and Ukraine, it is appropriate to continue to raise interest rates, and expressed expectations of economic optimism, so that US stocks rose again.
The amazing thing is that the 7 rate hikes in the whole of 2022 are exactly what the market has been saying, but today after the Fed confirmed that the market was correct, the odds of raising interest rates fell sharply. Why? Because as the latest economic expectations indicate, even the Fed is now predicting a sharp slowdown in economic growth while inflation will soar. The most likely outcome now is stagflation. This is immediately reflected in the plunge in the 30-year US Treasury yield. The whole yield curve looks torturous.
On the Russian-Ukrainian side, the fourth round of negotiations resumed on the 15th due to technical suspension, and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov both said on the 16th: The negotiations are very difficult, but there is hope of reaching a compromise, and the current market interpretation of the Russian-Ukrainian situation is expected to ease.
Technical: Wednesday gold prices bottomed out, the highest price broke through and closed at the opening price of 1923, looking back at Wednesday's trend, gold because of the arrival of the Federal Reserve meeting, the Asian disk and the European session trend are very cautious, showing a volatile trend, the range of 1926-1912, after the Fed announced the results, gold began a sharp rebound. From the daily point of view alone, gold will likely continue to continue to rise in the short term.
On the 4-hour chart, a pullback pattern has also been opened, and there is also a little distance from the pressure level of the nearest golden section of 38.2%, and gold will test this position with a high probability. If once the position of 1943 is broken, the next target will see the 1955 line, gold above the pressure 1943-1955-1966, below the support 1920-1910-1890; on the hourly chart, the short-term gold price bottoming rebound formed a relatively strong bottom reversal pattern, the current gold price is in the hourly line 60-day moving average Technical indicators Pressure level narrow sideways, short-term high sideways cycle extension will further weaken the technical indicator pressure level of technical indicators To form a short-term increase The probability of further expansion is higher. On the whole, the Fed interest rate decision landed as scheduled, gold prices bottomed out and rebounded short-term bottom reversal, cautiously maintaining a biased range operation idea during the day, points, above the 1955 first-line resistance, below the 1920 first-line support.
Gold Exclusive Strategy:
Long strategy: it is recommended to retrace the 1923-26 area to enter the market, target 1930-1935-1947; stop loss to see below 1912 (today's main idea)
Analysis of the latest trend of crude oil:
The EIA report showed that commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 4.345 million barrels to 415.9 million barrels, an increase of 1.1%, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 514,000 barrels/day to 2,936,000 barrels per day last week, the average four-week supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21,044,000 barrels/day, an increase of 12.2% from the same period last year, and U.S. strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) inventories decreased by 1,983,000 barrels to 575.5 million barrels last week, a decrease of 0.34%, Excluding commercial crude oil from strategic reserves, imports of 6.395 million b/d last week, up 76,000 b/d from the previous week, and U.S. domestic crude oil production fell by 0 million bpd to 11.6 million b/d last week.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that more oil supplies would be disrupted if the war continued. The IEA said 3 million barrels of Russian oil and petroleum products per day may not be able to enter the market from April due to the impact of sanctions and buyers' circumvention. The IEA also said that demand will fall, but not as much as the potential decline in Russian supplies.
In addition, Libya has called on OPEC to speed up crude oil production; British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said after meeting with the Saudi crown prince that he was optimistic that the country might increase production, but there was no guarantee that it would do so.
Technical: Crude oil yesterday small cross K line narrow range shock, low lateral finishing is weak, after the rebound is powerless to close higher, and finally closed at the 95.0 low after being under pressure near 99.10. The daily cross is still relatively low. Did not completely stop falling, combined with this wave of gold trend, gold's rapid downward exploration to complete the stop, and the current crude oil is still at a low level of lateral consolidation. There is a slight divergence here, and it may also be accompanied by a wave of downward play approaching the previous rising point between 90.0-88.0, and then quickly rebounding and rebounding. Of course, the space and form should be combined with the pro disk. It's just an expectation at the moment.
The 4-hour chart maintains oscillations near the moving average, whether it is currently a stable rebound or a weak finishing and then falling, it remains to be seen, 90.0 This level is a point of contention. Two ways of moving are also common, one is to re-select the direction of the stop-down rebound, and the other is to start a stable rebound after the inertia dip, referring to the gold's move yesterday. The current pattern is in the process of conversion. A little more stable intraday short-term first wait and see. Here the weak downward exploration is also feasible, if it is directly sorted out and stabilized, the rebound space will also be large, so the operation will be slightly hesitant. There are signs of oscillations in the local area, and there will be repeated after the support of the approaching 90.0-89.0 area, so try not to chase the short in the support belt, so as not to reverse the sweep loss. On the whole, crude oil is recommended to focus on the 99.0-100 first-line resistance above and the 90.0-89.0 first-line support below.
Crude Oil Exclusive Strategy today: Suggest a rebound in the 98.5 area short entry, stop loss 99.5, target 95.5-93.5;
Pound Daily Price Action Analysis:
Pound wednesday again broke high, shock upwards, the lowest 154 of the day, the highest 156.1, the daily line of the sun closed at the high of 156.1, from the daily line today will continue to rise, above the attention of 157 and 157.5, four-hour line, hour line, moving average are upward, the pair is oscillating upwards, review of the day to pull back more, look at the shock upward, below the attention of 155 and 155.5
Pound Day Exclusive Strategy:
Long strategy: 155.3-155.5 long, stop loss 0.4, target 156-156.5
Short order strategy: 157.5 initial short once, stop loss 0.4, target 156.8-156.5
Li Xiaohan is committed to the analysis of international gold, crude oil, silver and other market trends analysis, is good at the use of large structure trends, wave theory, K line pattern and moving average system for trend prediction, the middle of the day wavy line and short-term spot price single layout, the overall success rate of 95%.
