China Fund News Taylor
On the evening of the 14th, we will pay attention to the situation in the United States, China and Ukraine.
Chinese stocks continued to fall
Let's show you a picture.
During the day, A-shares fell sharply, while European stocks and US stocks were rising. European stocks continued to rally, with germany's DAX up 2.5%, Europe's Stoxx 50 up 1.8%, and France's CAC40 up 1.9%. The U.S. Dow rose nearly 1 percent.
Only A shares and Hong Kong stocks feel hurt.
JPMorgan analyst Alex Yao will put Alibaba (BABA. US) rating was downgraded from overweight to underweight, with the target price downgraded to $65 from $180. The analyst said a large number of global investors are reducing their investment in China's internet industry due to rising geopolitics and macro risks. Alibaba, one of the most widely held stocks in China's Internet sector, will continue to face selling pressure in the near future.
Fundamentally, Yao has also become more cautious about Alibaba's short- and medium-term business outlook due to rising inflation and the potential negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, saying the company's core commercial business is under increasing pressure.
For this round of A-share plunge, as well as the sharp outflow of funds from the north, Industrial Securities analysis said that on the one hand, due to the intensification of overseas market volatility, stagflation risk led to the Fed's continued hawkishness and other factors, but on the other hand, more importantly, under the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict, geopolitical risks and the intensification of great power confrontation and game, or become the root cause of the sharp outflow of foreign capital and overseas "long money".
On the one hand, the intensification of volatility in overseas markets and the risk of stagflation have led to the continuous hawkishness of the Federal Reserve, resulting in the phased withdrawal of foreign capital from A shares.
1) Recent sharp fluctuations and drawdowns in overseas markets have further suppressed market risk appetite. Historically, whenever the market panic spreads, foreign capital flows out significantly, and the scale of net inflows of funds from the north has a significant negative correlation with the VIX index.
2) Surge in large prices triggers the risk of U.S. stagflation, or leads to continued hawkishness in the Federal Reserve and increased pressure on capital outflows. Taking history as a lesson, on the eve of the Fed's tightening, funds are likely to flow out of the stock markets of emerging countries. Before the start of the two rate hike cycles in mid-2004 and the end of 2015, we found that before the first rate hike, funds flowed out significantly out of emerging markets, and considering that the march rate hike was imminent, the pressure on foreign outflows increased.
On the other hand, more importantly, under the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict, geopolitical risks and the intensification of great power confrontation and game may become the root cause of the sharp outflow of foreign capital and overseas "long money".
Looking back at the net inflow of allocation orders in the past two years, it is often only when there is a systemic risk or policy risk intensified in the market that the allocation type of foreign capital will have a rare continuous reduction. Since 2019, allocation-oriented foreign capital has flowed steadily, and only when systemic risks and policy risks have intensified in markets such as the outbreak of the new crown epidemic and the deterioration of Sino-US relations, and policy risks have continued to occur sharply, even when the market is sharply adjusted in July 2020 and March 2021, allocation foreign investment has only slowed down or slightly outflowed.
Recently, the confrontation and game between major powers have intensified, the international order has become increasingly complex, and A-shares are facing more severe external environment and policy risks, or the root cause of the recent sharp outflow of foreign capital allocation. Since the Fed's Taper last November, the marginal flow of overseas liquidity has tightened, but the renminbi has remained strong, and the allocation of foreign capital has continued to flow in, which has been relatively little affected. However, since the black swan event of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the confrontation and game between global powers has become increasingly fierce, whether it is Putin's special military action against Ukraine or the extreme bottomlessness embodied in Western sanctions, it has broken many basic consensuses in the international order after World War II, and the global political and economic environment has become increasingly complex, which does not rule out the possibility of us sanctions against Russia spreading to China. A shares face more severe external environment and policy risks, or become the root cause of the irrational panic and continuous outflow of recent allocation funds.
30 billion chip shares: liang jun, a core technical personnel, left his post
Cambrian announced on the evening of March 14 that Liang Jun, the company's core technical personnel, notified the company to terminate the labor contract due to differences with the company. The company has recently completed the relevant resignation procedures for him; after leaving the company, Liang Jun will no longer hold any position in the company. The announcement said that Liang Jun's departure will have a certain impact on the company's research and development management. However, the announcement also said that the company has established a complete research and development system, Liang Jun's departure will not affect the company's technological innovation, will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's overall research and development strength.
The company said that Liang Jun joined the company in 2017 and was one of the company's core technical personnel before leaving. During his tenure in the Company, Mr. Liang Jun played an active role in the construction of the Company's product innovation and R&D system. The Company and the Board would like to express our sincere gratitude to Mr. Liang Jun for his contribution to the Company during his tenure of office.
As of the latest, Cambrian's market capitalization exceeds 30 billion.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine is up to date
The United States will invite Ukrainian President Zelens to deliver a video speech on the 16th
On the 14th local time, the Senate and house of the US Congress issued an invitation letter to Ukrainian President Zelensky, inviting Zelensky to deliver a video speech in the US Congress on the 16th.
On the 14th, Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives, and Senate Majority Leader Schumer issued a joint invitation letter, inviting all members of the Senate and the House of Representatives to hold an online meeting with Ukrainian President Zelens on the morning of the 16th. Pelosi and Schumer wrote in their letters that the U.S. Congress will stand firm in its support for Ukraine and pass legislation to sanction Russia and provide aid to Ukraine.
Adviser to the Director of the Office of the President of Ukraine: The technical suspension of the fourth round of Ukrainian-Russian negotiations is expected to continue on the 15th
On the 14th local time, Podolyak, an adviser to the director of the office of the President of Ukraine, said on social media that the fourth round of Ukrainian-Russian negotiations has entered a state of technical suspension, and the corresponding working group will complete a series of supplementary work, and it is expected that the negotiations will continue on the 15th.
Russia responded to the attack on Donetsk: It is not excluded to control large Ukrainian settlements to ensure the safety of local residents
On the 14th local time, Russian presidential press secretary Peskov said that the incident in which the Ukrainian side used polka-U missiles to attack Donetsk on the same day showed that Ukrainian nationalists were acting in accordance with the instructions of some overseas forces. He also said that from now on, the possibility that the Russian armed forces will control large Ukrainian settlements is not ruled out to maximize the safety of local residents.
Peskov pointed out that when the Russian side launched a special military operation, Putin had ordered that cities, including Kiev, should not be rushed, because the Ukrainian armed forces have deployed a large number of weapons and equipment in these cities, and rushing to attack large cities will lead to casualties among residents.
A Dot U missile was intercepted near the Donetsk government building, causing 20 deaths and 9 injuries
On the 14th, a Dot U missile was intercepted near the Donetsk government building, causing damage to some buildings and catching fire.
Preliminary analysis said that the missile was intercepted by the Donetsk air defense system, but the missile engine and some of the cluster munitions it carried fell into the city center and caused damage.
Donetsk Local Defense Command said fragments of the Dot U missile killed at least 20 people and wounded 9 others.
In response to the Ukrainian armed forces missile attack on Donetsk, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement on the 14th local time, saying that the Ukrainian side used the dot-U missile of cluster munitions to strike Donetsk, indicating that the Ukrainian side tried to cause as many civilian casualties as possible.
The Russian side believes that the use of dot-U missiles against Donetsk, which has no firepower positions, is a military crime.
The Russian Federal Investigation Commission decided to file a criminal case against the Ukrainian side for using the Dot-U missile to attack Donetsk
On the 14th local time, the Investigation Commission of the Russian Federation decided to file a criminal case against the Ukrainian army's use of dot-U missiles to attack Donetsk. The Commission has begun to work on identifying those responsible for the illegal order to launch missiles to Ukrainian military personnel.
Earlier, russia's defense ministry said it was a military crime for Ukrainian armed forces to use dot-U missiles against Donetsk, which had no firepower positions.
Representative of the Russian-Ukrainian side of the Negotiations: The Fourth Round of Negotiations Begins Communication between the two sides is difficult but continues
On the 14th local time, Podoriak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Russian-Ukrainian negotiating side, said on his social media that the fourth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has begun. Both Ukraine and Russia have actively expressed their respective positions, and the two sides are still in communication.
At the same time, he pointed out that the negotiations were difficult, and what led to the differences between the two sides was the differences in the political system of Ukraine and Russia.
Wu Zunyou sent a long article: The national epidemic situation will definitely be significantly controlled in the next few weeks
On March 14, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, posted a weibo post to analyze why there has been a multi-point cluster of epidemics recently and make the latest judgments on the epidemic situation.
Full text of Wu Zunyou's Weibo:
On March 13, there were 1,337 new locally confirmed CASEs of COVID-19 nationwide, involving 16 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, including Jilin, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hebei, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Gansu, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Beijing, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Yunnan and Guangxi. The epidemic situation is very serious.
The emergence of this local cluster of epidemics at the same time at multiple points is affected by the high incidence of the epidemic in the world, especially in Asia. Since January 2022, the mainland has reported a marked increase in local clusters, with an average number of outbreaks per month about ten times higher than last year and the previous year. Imported cases are mainly from neighboring countries and regions, such as Vietnam, South Korea, Myanmar, Laos, Russia, Hong Kong SAR, etc.
Second, it is highly contagious by the Aomi Kerong mutant strain. The new crown cases reported by the recent outbreak in the mainland are mainly the Omikerong variant, accounting for about 80%. Omikeron is divided into four genotypes, and the main popular ones on the mainland are BA.2 and BA.1.1. The Omiljun strain BA.1 spreads about 70% faster than the Delta strain, and BA.2 spreads more than 60% faster than BA.1.
Third, most of the covid-19 infected people affected by the recent epidemic are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms that make it difficult to detect. Since about 90% of people have completed the new crown vaccination, the population already has a certain immunity, and at the same time, the Omiljung strain is relatively weak, which makes a considerable proportion of infected people have no symptoms or symptoms are particularly mild, which makes it difficult to find the epidemic prevention and control. Therefore, this requires that our prevention and control measures be able to catch outbreaks more sensitively and respond more quickly and accurately.
Source: Wu Zunyou
"Dynamic zero clearance" is still our general policy to control this epidemic, requiring all localities to detect the epidemic in time, block the transmission in time, and treat patients in time, so as to find, control and eliminate together. At present, the main measures for the detection of the epidemic include: isolation and observation of inbound personnel, daily monitoring of personnel involved in overseas cold chain and freight, isolation and observation of close contacts, nucleic acid testing of patients with fever or suspected colds, nucleic acid testing of local populations of a certain scale or multiple rounds of local nucleic acid testing after the outbreak of the epidemic, and so on. These measures to detect the epidemic must be implemented early, quickly and accurately in order to contain the epidemic in the bud. Measures to interrupt transmission mainly include: personal protective measures such as wearing masks, hand hygiene and social distancing, restricting the movement of people in local confinement during the outbreak of the epidemic, isolating close contacts or sub-close contacts, and treating COVID-19 patients. Treatment measures mainly include: traditional Chinese medicine treatment, convalescent plasma or neutralizing antibody application, symptomatic treatment, special drugs, psychological rehabilitation treatment, etc.
The comprehensive application of measures such as finding the epidemic, blocking transmission, and treating patients constitutes the core content of "dynamic zeroing". The soul of "dynamic zero clearance" is to cut off the transmission chain in a timely, accurate and completely clean manner, so as not to let the virus continue to spread in the population and eliminate the virus at the location of the epidemic.
Although the current epidemic situation facing the mainland is very severe, compared with the sharp increase in the number of new cases and the continued increase in deaths in a single day when the Aumicron strain attacked European and American countries and neighboring countries, we have achieved great success in epidemic prevention and control. Under the guidance of the general policy of "dynamic zero clearance", as long as we overcome the paralyzing thinking, continue to work hard, adhere to strict prevention and control, and solidly implement various epidemic prevention and control measures for normalization and prevention, the national epidemic situation will certainly be significantly controlled in the coming weeks.
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