preface:
Happiness is a feeling, it does not depend on the state of life of people, but on the state of mind of the person. When you feel happy, everything looks so good, accepting loneliness, accepting loss, accepting that you are incomplete, and occasionally being defeated by change. Maybe acceptance is difficult to swallow, but when you can't bear it, learn to let yourself go. There are only people in the world who can't think straight, and there is no road that can't be walked.
Technical Analysis:
No one cares how you cry in the middle of the night, and no one cares how many autumns you have to toss and turn. Outsiders only look at the results and support the process alone. When we all understand this truth, we will no longer be in front of people, talk around for comfort, do not have to be afraid of sleek people to say that you are not mature enough, do not care about smart people to say that you are not wise enough, do not accept the life recommended to you by others as it is, choose to stick to it, choose to ideals, choose to listen to the call of the heart, in order to have the fullest life.
At present, the geopolitical situation is about to enter the third week, uncertainties shroud the trend of market interference, gold and crude oil and safe-haven assets such as the US dollar can be said to have ushered in a bullish spring, but with the moderate progress of negotiations, the next week's war situation will challenge the safe-haven bulls, gold prices have been unstable for two thousand mark, and the relaxation of the weekend has also allowed market investors to watch cautiously whether inflation can regain its protagonist aura.
Gold's geopolitical risk premium is now fading fairly quickly, settling at $2,043.30 on Tuesday, the highest level in about 19 months, and a record high of $2,069.40 on August 6, 2020, after all, the Fed's expectations of a rate hike next week also limited gold prices, with 94% of people betting that the central bank would raise the benchmark overnight rate by at least 25 basis points on March 16, with the impact of gold prices now concentrated on next Wednesday's Fed monetary policy The meeting is expected to bring some volatility to the dollar, which in turn will affect the pattern of gold prices, and the market is currently expecting a 95.1% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Recent inflation data further reinforced those expectations, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 7.9 percent in February, a 40-year high.
There was a big turn in investor assessments because of the impact of the geopolitical situation on future monetary policy in the United States, as the market briefly thought that the economic cost of war would make the path of rate hikes more dovish, but this expectation quickly reversed, the February CPI data further reminded people that inflation has penetrated almost all major categories of goods and services, and the Fed chairman also said last week that he supported the traditional 25 basis point hike at the March meeting, and gold prices fell back after hitting 2000, Many people are confused about where to go in the future, gold prices after breaking through 2050, the big diving below the 2000 mark for consolidation, is a good thing for gold prices, because the long-short game is also testing the strength of the market, while next week's interest rate hike will hurt the market bullish sentiment, after all, diving is a good direction of the long-short game, gold prices in the short term has been difficult to concentrate the advantage of the rally can move, is currently waiting for the geopolitical relaxation and peace talks, once the geopolitical peace talks ease, the follow-up big diving will not be less, after all, the current geopolitical turning point has arrived.
Observing this week's trend, among precious metal assets, big brother gold's gains have outperformed nickel. London nickel futures after two trading days soared nearly 250% of the astonishing market, the London Metal Exchange (LME) emergency suspension of trading, and announced that it will not resume trading before March 11, causing a high degree of discussion and focus in the market, non-ferrous nickel is widely used in stainless steel and new energy vehicle power battery production, data show that Russia is a nickel producer, supplying about 6% of the world's nickel metal. More than 70% of the world's nickel is used to make stainless steel, and another 7% is in the field of electric vehicle batteries.
Although inflation is currently at a high level, but consumer information and spending is still promoting the market economy, economic growth will not slow down, gold prices in this environment, will slowly fade the high yellow robe, while the gold price market faces some negative factors The main source is still the Fed's interest rate hike, the market expects that the federal funds rate will reach at least 2.25% at the end of this year, this environment will further push up the dollar to strengthen, while bringing pressure to gold, although the weekly line has not been able to close the shade, but the lightning rod has experienced a lifetime, The daily level of dark clouds covers the entire top, boll overall rapid contraction, the daily bottom MACD indicator and the K line form a top divergence, suggesting that the technical side has begun to slide downwards, we are building a position near 2050, currently close to hundreds of points of profit, next Monday 1980 ~ 2000 range for the first position defense, the second look near 2000 ~ 2020, next week first look at the 1970 support, then look at the 1950 small support, and then 1930 ~ 1900 is a joint defense, How strong the upward outbreak is, how big the downward pace will be, do not use your vision to measure the trend of the global market.
Silver brother's words, although the overall decline is not too big, good villains are also sliding down to 25.8 freeze frame near 27, the current weekly line compared to big brother really charge a yin line lightning rod, next week once the gap is opened, then the strength of the weekly line form dusk star, not three words can be said clearly, at least we can see the 23 ~ 22 range, so we build a defensive position near 26.5, you can slowly look at the bottom support, next week near some first look at the 24.7 ~ 24.3 range, after looking at 23.7 ~ 22.5 range, time for space trend, what is needed is extraordinary patience, as well as a unique vision, maybe you can see five steps and ten steps, but the market is far from enough, the more steps to see, you can understand the ideas in the text.
Data and events to watch next week: Next Tuesday: PPI, New York State Manufacturing Index Next Wednesday: Retail Sales, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Powell's Press Conference Next Thursday: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production Next Friday: Existing Home Sales.
What causes the most suffering is often not the misfortune of the market, but the disillusionment of your hopes; the most desperate thing is often not the blow of setbacks, but the death of your soul.