Per reporter: Huang Xiaocong Per editor: Xiao Ruidong
After entering 2022, the A-share market continued to adjust, from above 3600 points on January 4 to 3147.68 lows on March 9, with an amplitude of more than 15%. Affected by this, the drawdown of many funds has also been relatively large since the beginning of the year, and the drawdown of many equity funds has exceeded 20%.
On the one hand, many fund investors in this wave of adjustment, floating losses are more obvious, deeply feel the risk of the market; but on the other hand, with the continuous adjustment of the market, many industries and individual stocks have returned to a relatively low position, and the overall valuation cost performance is more prominent.
As fund managers, fund companies and fund managers have also continued to speak out recently, and many have also launched self-purchase plans and relaxed subscription limits.
As the top fund manager of the market, Xie Zhiyu of Industrial Securities Global Fund recently talked very rarely about his views on the market. "There has been a structural overvaluation problem in the market over the past few years, but with the recent decline in the market, the market valuation has dropped significantly, and some of the high valuations have been digested in a very short period of time," he said. Of course, I may not be able to rule out that there are individual industries, and individual companies may still be in a relatively high position, but overall, I think the overall valuation level is relatively reasonable. ”
Xie Zhiyu also said, "We have also made a simple comparison, that is, from the perspective of the CSI 300, SSE 500, and CSI 800, if you use the five-year quantile, it is about 10% to 20% of the level, this level should not be a particularly high level, which is a problem to consider from the perspective of valuation." ”
In addition, Xie Zhiyu also admitted, "My way is to buy high-quality enterprises at reasonable prices and make money for long-term growth." From this point of view, I am first concerned about the development of high-quality enterprises in the current economic environment, long-term sustained profitability, and whether they are at a reasonable valuation; secondly, I am worried about the economic environment and external environmental risks. Based on the current point in time, I feel that there are a number of companies in the market at present, so that I can choose to hold firmly and can expect relatively reasonable returns. ”
"This year the market has a larger shock and drawdown, for ordinary investors to feel should be relatively poor, my personal investment strategy is mainly to invest in my own management of the fund products, this year there is no redemption action, on the contrary has been subscribed." Xie Zhiyu further said.
The following is the full text of Xie Zhiyu's views for investors' reference:
Xie Zhiyu, deputy general manager of Industrial Securities Global Fund: The A-share market has a certain investment value in the medium and long term
The recent sharp retracement of the market may be mainly affected by the following factors: pessimistic expectations of the future economic environment, international geopolitical turmoil, US interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions, A-share market in the past few years of large gains, some sectors overvalued, etc. Based on the current point in time, the market is not really a great risk, it may need to be analyzed from several aspects:
First of all, from the perspective of the overall economic environment, the management has a relatively clear positioning for this year's economic situation. This year's economic growth target is 5.5 percent. From the current market conditions, it is difficult to achieve this goal. Because of this, this growth target sends a very strong signal to the market, which means that the focus should now be on ensuring economic growth, consolidating the success achieved on the basis of epidemic prevention and control in the past few years, and ensuring the sustained trend of economic growth.
How can this goal be achieved? It mainly relies on consumption, investment, import and export troika.
At the import and export level, in the past two years, due to China's new crown epidemic prevention policy, it has achieved a leading effect in the world, effectively ensuring the smooth development of the domestic manufacturing industry chain, and also making our export growth strong. In January and February this year, this data still did not show a sharp decline, although the trade surplus has declined, but exports still maintain strong resilience. Of course, this data should be kept track in the future.
At the investment level, it mainly includes real estate and infrastructure investment. From a real estate perspective, there was indeed a sharp decline in the second half of last year, which caused market concerns. But we have also observed that there have been many shifts in real estate policy since the second half of last year. For example, mortgage policy adjustment, housing delivery, and city policies, etc., and over time, the effect of some previous policies may gradually appear. In the field of infrastructure, the government has maintained a relatively restrained attitude in the past few years, even if the possibility of real estate declines, infrastructure also has a certain amount of room for hedging operations, so we have reason to believe that we will not be too pessimistic in the investment field.
At the consumption level, affected by the epidemic, the overall consumption situation in the past two years has been relatively weak, but this year the government also has similar expenditure plans, including home appliances going to the countryside and new energy subsidy policies.
On the whole, what we should see is that it not only sets a relatively high goal for the overall economic growth, but also has a certain plan to ensure its specific implementation. So from the perspective of the overall environment of large economic policy, I don't think there is any basis for particular pessimism.
External environment
Rising raw materials inflation is a concern but trust in the government's ability to regulate
The greatest uncertainty in the external environment is the complexity of geopolitics and the many implications it can have. But what we can observe so far, there are also some positive factors.
The first is that the RMB exchange rate has remained relatively stable. In the relatively turbulent international external environment, this is a very positive criterion, reflecting external expectations for the stability of the mainland economy. This year, we have talked more about the Fed's fiscal and monetary policy in the process of raising interest rates, but in fact, in the past few years, our monetary policy has been relatively cautious, which also makes the follow-up maneuverable space larger.
The second is the rise in raw material prices. This will indeed affect the development of the economy to a large extent, but we should note that the main body of our energy is coal. Moreover, in recent years, China's new energy industry has developed rapidly, and the proportion of clean energy is also steadily increasing. Therefore, the impact of rising crude oil prices on us is relatively limited.
Of course, the hidden danger of inflation is the risk point that I am more concerned about this year, because external geopolitical factors may be magnified, and we need to continue to observe what the impact will be. Overall, I still believe in the government's ability to regulate.
Policy environment
The pace of regulatory implementation or adjustments to corporate and investor expectations may improve
After the adjustment of industry policies last year, the market may be somewhat unclear about the overall expectations. For example, the double carbon policy. I understand that the goal of the dual-carbon policy is to achieve industrial upgrading through the dual-carbon policy, to achieve clean energy substitution, and ultimately to achieve that we have cheap and clean energy. In the long run, it will enhance the competitiveness of the country, because cheap and clean energy as an important factor price will certainly play a very strong supporting role for the entire industry.
Last year, we were actually in the process of implementation, and there may be cases where the implementation standards are too strict in some places, but with the clarity of the policy, we can be more active and steady to promote.
The long-term goal of a policy like double carbon is firm, and there must be a more scientific way to implement it in the process of implementation. This will play a good role in the stability expected by many industrial enterprises.
Regarding the platform economy, the current interpretation of the market is negative. But in fact, since the second half of last year, we have gradually seen the setting of the tone of the platform economy, and strengthening supervision is to make the digital platform economy develop better and healthier. Therefore, the strict regulatory policies expected by the market in the long run may also be in the later stages.
market
The valuation level is relatively reasonable and the value of the target is revealed
There has been a structural overvaluation problem in the market in the past few years, but with the recent decline in the market, the market valuation has dropped sharply, and some of the high valuations have been digested in a very short period of time. Of course, at this point, I may not be able to rule out that there are individual industries, and individual companies may still be in a relatively high position, but on the whole, I think the overall valuation level is relatively reasonable.
We have also made a simple comparison, that is, from the perspective of the CSI 300, SSE 500, and CSI 800 indices, if you use the five-year quantile, they are about 10% to 20% of the level, this level should not be a particularly high level, which is a problem to consider from the perspective of valuation.
The stock market will always be a relatively complex system. It is very rare for a situation to be in a single state at a certain point in time. In the complex market information, we need to sort out a main line: has the expectation of China's economic growth changed? Do leading domestic companies still maintain a sustainable competitive advantage internationally? Will the need for resident wealth management persist? If these factors do not undergo an essential shift, then the large investment framework will not change.
Another question is what exactly are we making in the market? My approach is to buy quality businesses at reasonable prices and make money for long-term growth. From this point of view, I am first concerned about the development of high-quality enterprises in the current economic environment, long-term sustained profitability, and whether they are at a reasonable valuation; secondly, I am worried about the economic environment and external environmental risks. Based on the current point in time, I feel that there are a number of companies in the market at present, so that I can choose to hold firmly and can expect relatively reasonable returns.
This year, the market has seen a larger shock and drawdown, for ordinary investors to feel should be relatively poor, I think I should give my ideas to everyone at this time for reference. My personal investment strategy is to invest mainly in fund products that I manage myself, and there has been no redemption action this year, but has been subscribing.
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