Food prices "soared", and at the same time, the cost of planting was supported by the price of fertilizers. From the perspective of fertilizer prices, it began to rise from 2021, which did not happen in 2022, and the urea per ton of 2,000 yuan in the past rose to 3,000 yuan per ton, which is also a record high. Although the price of urea has fallen through national market regulation, it is still higher than in previous years. In particular, the war between Russia and Ukraine has seriously affected the export of nitrogen and potash fertilizers, resulting in more supply than demand in the international market, and the rising sentiment of domestic fertilizer prices has further increased. According to relevant news, the state will give 20 billion yuan of funds to give planting subsidies, further used to reduce the burden on farmers, for the rise in the price of agricultural materials, resulting in an increase in planting costs, has a certain alleviating effect.
The grain subsidy this time is mainly given to the grain farmers, including contracts, circulation land, cooperatives and other grain planting entities, and the subsidy will be issued in the form of previous subsidies. In 2021, the state has also issued nearly 20 billion grain planting subsidies, compared with the past, what are the changes in this subsidy distribution and fertilizer?
1. Analysis of subsidy time changes and fertilizer rises
According to relevant news, the time of subsidy issuance in the past was in June, but this year it is concentrated in March, which is conducive to the subsidy utilization of chemical fertilizers for spring ploughing. From the fertilizer point of view, it mainly includes nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer, which will give plants a lot of about 3 major elements (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium). From the perspective of continental fertilizer processing, nitrogen fertilizer includes urea and ammonia fertilizer. The mainland's urea is mainly processed by coal and natural gas, and it is mainly coal, accounting for more than 70% of the mainland's urea production. Foreign natural gas production of urea-based, the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to a rise in natural prices, to the international market fertilizer prices "soaring", international fertilizer fluctuations, which also led to urea has brought a certain emotional impact.
In terms of nitrogen fertilizer supply, domestic urea began to be processed, the operating rate of coal processing enterprises reached 72%, and the daily output reached 160,000 tons, which is currently increasing month-on-month and decreasing by 0.28 million tons last year. From the market demand side, the current spring ploughing has arrived, the fertilizer reserve has gradually increased, and the price of urea has gradually risen.
From the perspective of potash fertilizer, the current upward momentum has increased, the domestic price of potassium chloride has exceeded 4,000 yuan per ton, which is more than 2 times that of the same period last year, and the reason for this rise is because the self-sufficiency rate of potash fertilizer on the mainland is only 50%, and the remaining 50% needs to be imported. At present, the transportation of potash fertilizer in Russia and Belarus has been affected by the obstruction of the port, and the subsequent supply side will be reduced, which has also led to an increase in potash fertilizer and an increase in the cost of subsequent planting.
2. Changes in market grain
Recent increases in food prices, particularly wheat and maize, have also hit new highs. Rising food prices have led to increased costs for deep processing and aquaculture enterprises. Especially for the current pig breeding industry, in the case of pigs falling and feed prices rising, it has added a great burden to the breeding industry, and for the changes in the corn market, there are mainly the following changes:
First of all, for corn and soybeans, it is necessary to stabilize market prices. Second, rice substitution may bring new feed processing needs to the market. The current grain planting subsidy will have a great effect on regulating grain planting and alleviating the rise in planting costs. Finally, in the case of rising costs of food cultivation, giving a certain amount of food subsidies will be of great help.
The current cost of grain planting has increased, and 20 billion grain subsidies have a certain effect on alleviating food planting, but in addition to chemical fertilizers, there are also increased costs such as fuel and seeds, especially although grain prices have risen, but the overall price range is still limited. It is believed that the favorable factors of follow-up policies will be gradually released. In this regard, what are the views of the majority of grain farmers, welcome to leave a message to discuss, thank you!