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1, loans are slowing down as always, which is still related to the real estate that is difficult to rise, among them, the long-term loans of residents on the sales side have a record-breaking net decline in the month, and the long-term loans of enterprises on the expenditure side are far below the seasonal level, and the growth rate of these two loans has fallen by about 1% each.
2, the finance is still the force supporting the credit cycle, the growth rate of government bonds continues to accelerate to 16.3%, but on the other hand, there has been some deceleration in urban investment bonds, which should be related to the continuous tightening of urban investment bond policies;
3, this month's financing cycle structure is generally consistent with the previous months, the reason why the data caused general pessimism in the market, is because social financing has begun to decelerate since this month:
1) In addition to real estate, undiscounted notes fell by a net of 422.8 billion yuan in this month, and dragged down an additional 0.12% of social financing, which is consistent with the interest rate of bills that once approached zero in February;
2) Of course, the decline in notes may be short-lived, after all, the base pressure on bill financing in February is the highest in this cycle, and in addition, if there is resilience in exports, there is at least short-term support for undiscounted bill financing.
4, a bright spot behind the heavy data is that there has been some recovery in market forces, especially in the middle and upper reaches of the manufacturing industry (electrical equipment, steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals) there are some signs of expansion, the expansion of these industries is driving corporate bond issuance to continue to accelerate.
5. But the power of these positive effects is most likely insufficient:
1) According to the objectives of the government work report, government bonds and bonds themselves should not have much space, at least their acceleration will not extend to the entire cycle, but there should be an inflection point of decline within this year;
2) If both fiscal and real estate power is lower than expected, then the expansion of the upper and middle reaches will have limited space, as in 2010-2011, and even more so this time.
6, the key pain point is still real estate, according to high-frequency data, real estate sales in March fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, which means that the start of real estate capital expenditure is still early.
7, the strength of both positive and negative sides has been tilted, which leads to the financing cycle may return to a downward state, we see in the short term easing policy (RRR cut, interest rate cut) is very likely, but its effect does need to be carefully evaluated.
8. Previously, the price-in information of the equity and debt firms was slightly inconsistent, and the introduction of this data means that the optimistic expectations implied by the stock market are falling short, which can also explain why there has been a sharp correction in the stock market recently.
9, but this does not mean that the bond market will have a large space opportunity, after all, the current yield curve has been significantly low in terms of the actual environment, and the contradictions in the bond market are not very prominent until there is further evidence.
Risk warning: Monetary policy exceeded expectations, and the economic recovery exceeded expectations.
Note: The report in this article is based on the research report that has been publicly released by the Guoyuan Securities Research Center, and the specific report content and related risk tips are detailed in the full version of the report.
✭ Securities Research Report: Rational Looking at February Financial Data
✭ Release time: March 12, 2022
✭ Analyst of this report: Yang Weixi, practising qualification certificate number: S0020521060001