According to a People's Daily report on 11 March, Taiwan independence activist Chen Mingwen asked Chen Ming-tung, director of Taiwan's "Security Bureau," during a question on the island, saying that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out earlier has affected the situation in the world, and many Taiwan independence forces on the island have a sense of death and sorrow, and asked whether there are any similarities between the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In this regard, Chen Mingtong, who does not know where the confidence came from, is very optimistic and announces that during the term of office of Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of the Taiwan independence forces, the mainland will not launch armed reunification and there will be no war between the two sides of the strait.
During this inquiry, Kuomintang "legislator" Jiang Qichen also raised a question to Chen Mingtong, asking whether there was still a hotline between The two sides of the strait that could directly communicate and exchange. Chen Mingtong said that during the period from 2018 to 2021, when he was the chairman of the MAC, he did have a hotline on his desk that could directly dial the mainland for dialogue, but he himself never used it. When Jiang Qichen asked whether the phone could be called, Chen Mingtong said that "the telephone line is still there" and could not give more reply. During this inquiry, Chen Mingtong's optimism about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, which did not know where the confidence came from, was impressive.
Prior to this, due to the continuous persecution of the United States, Russia's strategic security deteriorated unprecedentedly, and finally chose to carry out special military operations in Ukraine to combat neo-Nazis in Ukraine and ensure that its national security and interests were not unjustifiably damaged by the demands of a small number of Ukrainian politicians out of their own interests rather than the national interests of Ukraine. Russia's reaction shocked the world, before western observers generally believe that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine will end in the form of a war of words like the two crises in 2021, and the West, especially the United States, will further reap real benefits and compress Russia's living space little by little. Russia's act of lifting the table, although extremely crude, really caused panic in the west as a whole, especially out of fear of nuclear war, NATO did not even dare to use force as brazenly as in the past, and the United States quickly showed its intention to betray Ukraine, after the news that the Americans planned to establish a Ukrainian government-in-exile in Poland.
The shock of the Taiwan independence forces in the Russo-Ukrainian War was enormous. Although this is not the first time that the Taiwan independence forces have been shocked, when the US military withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021, many Taiwan independence elements exclaimed that "Saigon will reappear at the moment", doubting whether the US military would really intervene to support Taiwan independence if the Taiwan campaign began; but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict showed the Taiwan independence forces in a more ruthless and bloody way the real future they may face, that is, the Americans are more likely to pay lip service but not to the truth, only know the sanctions, and do not dare to intervene. In the end, it will sit back and watch the Chinese People's Liberation Army sweep away the beetles and completely eliminate the Taiwan independence forces and the Kuomintang reactionaries. Because of this, many anti-China forces, including the media on the island of Taiwan and the Western media, are lamenting "Today's Ukraine, Tomorrow's Taiwan" and calling on the West to unite against China.
The prevailing view on the island is that for Tsai Ing-wen herself, as long as she does not directly declare "Taiwan independence," she is indeed very safe during her current term of office. According to the current plan of the Platon, the third decade of the 20th century will complete the military modernization reform, and the completion of national reunification is expected to be around this point in time. In 2016, the Taiwan independence forces led by Tsai Ing-wen successfully seized the military and political power on the island, and in 2020, they successfully defeated Han Kuo-yu, a representative of the Kuomintang reactionaries, to continue to govern, and their term of office will last until 2024. China's military modernization will not be until the second half of the twenties at the earliest, and according to the normal timetable, the Taiwan campaign will not be launched under Tsai Ing-wen, but will solve the problem in the next or next Taiwan leader. Therefore, how to use this rare window of time to gain political capital and interests for herself and the Taiwan independence forces is what Tsai Ing-wen cares about, and the rest does not need to invest too much attention.
Similarly, the so-called "West unites against China" is a false proposition. Because Western countries have long dominated the international political arena, Western countries often look at non-Western countries with arrogance. At the same time, since non-Western countries are basically unable to pose enough threats to Western countries, the use of diplomacy to influence internal affairs, or the use of diplomacy to carry out internal political struggles, has become the norm in the Western world, especially in the United States. At present, many analysts believe that the purpose of the United States to promote the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is to worsen the security situation in Europe and stimulate the return of international capital in Europe to solve the economic crisis faced by the United States; but this is likely to be just an excuse, a "million workers" in the United States who have been engaged in anti-Russian work for a long time since the Cold War period. The excuses they have put forward in order to compete for power and profit with the anti-China factions that began to rise gradually after the great debate on China policy in the United States in 2015 are to persuade more people to take their side and invest resources on their own side rather than on the anti-China side.
Including France, the de facto leader of the EUROPEAN Union today, and Germany, which has the closest relationship with China within the EU, many countries in the West have similar situations, with diplomacy in fact serving domestic affairs, and although they have sensed the crisis, they have lost the ability to quickly mobilize resources to respond. To put it bluntly, the "final conclusion of history" has left many people lost in the gentle countryside, and Western countries are now more willing to hide in the information cocoon compiled by cults, anti-China, or anti-Russian people, unwilling to face up to reality. The island of Taiwan is the "ultimate body" after the extreme distortion and development of this situation, Chinese the "Taiwanization of American politics" often said on the Internet, which is to mock the situation that Americans are unwilling to open their eyes to the world and only want to rely on their own hard power to brutally oppress all countries, and eventually it is counterproductive. To put it mildly, whether it is the Crisis in Ukraine or the Taiwan Strait issue, it is ultimately a question, that is, whether people in the non-Western elite are human. There was only one common enemy of the Chinese people and the Japanese people, that is, Japanese imperialism and the scum of the Chinese nation; now there is only one common enemy of the Chinese people and the people of the whole world, that is, Western imperialism and its lackeys, which are constantly undermining world peace and still uphold hegemonic thinking in the 21 st century.