At the "two sessions" in 2022, npc deputies and CPPCC members submitted many suggestions and proposals on the property market, such as abolishing the area of public pooling and abolishing the pre-sale system, which was extremely concerned.
What is the likelihood that these property market "focus proposals" and "hot proposals" will be realized in the short term? Let's analyze it today.
Focus 1: Abolish the pool area
Odds of implementation in two years: ★
This was put forward by Hong Yang, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice chairman of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region CPPCC Committee. He enumerates the "three deadly sins" of the pool area:
1. There is no unified standard for the division of the pool area. Which areas belong to the pool area, which areas are not, and are there duplicate charges? It is also up to the developer to decide.
2. The pool area also derives a series of unreasonable charges, such as property fees and heating fees, which are charged according to the area after the pool.
3. The owner does not enjoy the legal benefits of the pool area. Since the pool area is distributed to the owner, the income generated by the pool area, such as advertising, parking spaces, clubs, supermarkets, etc., should also be shared with the owner. But this is not the case.
Comments: As Hong Yang said, the area of the pool is opaque, lacks supervision, and brings a series of derivative problems that need to be solved.
Unfortunately, I think it will be extremely difficult to abolish the pool area nationwide within 2 years, and it is basically impossible to achieve. So, in the rating of the probability of implementation in two years, I gave "one star".
The reason is simple: this will bring about an "inflationary effect", which is a tight property market policy and will not be launched.
We are now buying a house, and the standard contract in many cities has marked the area in the suite, and the average price in the suite. In general, the area of the pool accounts for about 25%. Therefore, if the unit price of 20,000 yuan is calculated according to the area in the suite (excluding the pool), the price is 26,700 yuan.
The average price of housing in Shenzhen is about 60,000 yuan, and if the public pool is abolished, the average price announced to the outside world will rise to about 80,000 yuan. The most expensive real estate in Shenzhen and Shanghai may have a unit price of 600,000 yuan per square meter, which will "expand the ceiling of the property market".
In the years of steady growth, promoting the recovery of the property market, and making everyone willing to buy a house, the abolition of the public pool, which on the surface seems to be "all good" policy, is actually a big bearish, which will psychologically suppress everyone's desire to buy a house. At least there is a lot of uncertainty, so it will not be introduced in the short term.
In the long run, the abolition of the pool area is the general trend.
Focus 2: Abolish pre-sale of commercial housing
At the current two sessions, there were many deputies and members who proposed abolishing the pre-sale system for commercial housing, such as Lu Tianxi, deputy to the National People's Congress and director of the Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Jiangxi Province; Zhou Shihong, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice chairman of the Anhui Provincial Committee of the Revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang; Shi Weidong, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of Nantong University; and Zhang Jianming, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice chairman of the Sichuan Federation of Industry and Commerce.
Member Zhou Shihong also provided a set of important data: by 2021, more than 63 million sets of commercial housing have been sold nationwide, but they have not been completed and delivered to buyers. In other words, off-plan sales pits hurt a lot of people.
Shi Weidong suggested strengthening the supervision of off-plan housing sales, setting up a special supervision account in the bank or a third-party custodian agency set up by the housing department to manage the deposit for off-plan housing sales, and gradually abolishing the off-plan system according to the region.
Comments: In the long run, the cancellation of off-plan sales across the country is the trend of the times, but it will not be realized in the short term.
The reason why it is difficult to achieve in 2 years is also because it is an "austerity policy". The cancellation of pre-sales, for high-rise residential buildings, means that developers will have to get sales funds 1 to 2 years late, and it also means that the cost of funds will be greatly increased. Now new houses around the country strictly limit the price, huge financial costs require developers to digest, this is very difficult.
Forcing developers to die, the supply will plummet in the future, and house prices will rise sharply in 2 to 4 years.
If costs are allowed to pass on, house prices will rise significantly by one round. Coupled with the abolition of the pool area, house prices may rise by more than 30%. This will be a consequence that the whole society cannot afford.
Therefore, it is very difficult to abolish the pre-sale system, and it can only be promoted step by step and exploratorily through pilot methods. For example, Hainan has abolished pre-sale, and in individual real estate in Shenzhen and Beijing, the land transfer stage indicates the need for existing house sales.
This year, not only will the pre-sale conditions not be tightened, but the pre-sale conditions may be generally lowered. The gap between ideal and reality is so big.
Focus 3: For families with three children and above, half of the mortgage interest will be reduced
Odds of implementation in two years: ★★
Huang Xihua, deputy to the National People's Congress, member of the Standing Committee of the Huizhou Municipal CPC Committee in Guangdong Province, and director of the Propaganda Department, suggested that in order to increase the fertility rate on the mainland, 50% of the interest on their mortgages should be returned or directly reduced in terms of real estate for families with three children or more.
Regarding the introduction of policies to encourage childbearing in housing, there are at least 20 proposals and suggestions at the two sessions this year, such as Zhai Meiqing, a member of the CppcC National Committee from Shenzhen, who suggested providing affordable housing indicators for families with three children; Wu Jinbi, a deputy to the National People's Congress and secretary of the Party Committee of Xinzhen Village in Nan'an City, Fujian Province, suggested that the housing provident fund should be tilted towards "three-child families".
Comments: I personally believe that the proposals and suggestions of Zhai Meiqing and Wu Jinbi are relatively easy to achieve, and it is more difficult to return or directly reduce or directly reduce 50% of their mortgage interest for families with three children and above.
However, reducing the mortgage burden of families with three children and above may be realized in the future. This may be done by discounting interest rates, lengthening the mortgage term, reducing the down payment ratio, and giving a higher CPF loan amount, all of which can be combined.
For example, families with three children and above, when buying a house within 50 square meters per capita (which includes the second set, or even the third set), the purchase limit city can be reduced to 20% (the current minimum is 30%), the unlimited purchase city can be reduced to 1.50% (the current minimum is 20%), the maximum term of the loan is extended to 40 years, the commercial loan interest rate is 7 to 20%, the maximum amount of the provident fund is 30% up, and so on.
When applying for housing, low-cost housing, and talent housing, families with three children will be given extra points, which significantly improves the probability of successful application, which is also easy to do.
In addition, such as zhang Zhaoan, a deputy to the National People's Congress, proposed that "the purchase restriction city gives the three-child family priority to buy a house",
Mo Tianquan, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, proposed that "according to the number of children born, set a differentiated down payment ratio", which may be realized in some cities this year.
Focus 4: Rent and sell the same right, the annual increase in rent is not more than 5%
Odds of implementation in two years: ★★★★
Yao Jinbo, a deputy to the National People's Congress and founder of 58.com, put forward the suggestion of "renting and selling the same right, and the annual rent increase should not exceed 5%".
Comments: In August 2021, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Notice on Preventing Large-scale Demolition and Construction in the Implementation of Urban Renewal Actions", which clearly stated that "the annual increase in urban housing rents should not exceed 5%".
That said, this is already an official goal. When Shenzhen legislated locally, it also made it clear that it would establish a "housing rental reference price system" in the future.
As we all know, Shenzhen took the lead in fully implementing the "second-hand housing transaction reference price" system in the regulation and control of the property market last year, and successfully achieved the cooling of the property market. If a mandatory "housing rental reference price system" is introduced in the future, the rental price will certainly be controlled to a large extent.
In the future, officials will intervene in market-based rent prices, not just the pricing of state-owned and government-owned rental housing. 5% is basically an official target.
The mandatory target of 5 per cent is largely impossible to implement nationwide in the short term. But there will definitely be some big cities to pilot. Small cities with small population growth, there is no need to control rents, in fact, can not rise.
Focus 5: Real estate tax pilot, will it be carried out this year?
Basically, there are no representative members, and new suggestions and proposals are put forward separately on promoting the real estate tax pilot, because the National People's Congress has authorized the State Council to "choose the opportunity to launch".
This year's government work report did not mention the real estate tax, does it mean that this year will not be carried out? It's possible.
But we also need to understand: the 2021 government work report also did not mention the real estate tax pilot, but it suddenly appeared in October 2021.
The real estate tax pilot is already on the string, so even if it is not launched this year, it will still have an impact on the property market, and it is a clear and very influential hanging sword.
So my view is that instead of making everyone worry, it is better to publish the pilot program as soon as possible. You can choose a few fewer cities, but at least 5 or so, large, medium, and small cities, cities with rapid population growth and population reduction, and such pilots are valuable.
A modest scheme was announced to provide per capita exempt area with an appropriately feasible tax rate. In this way, everyone will not worry.
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