There is a sign that is more obvious in this South Korean presidential election: the fight is who is more representative of American interests and who is more able to please Washington. Yoon Seok-yue eventually narrowly defeated Lee Jae-ming by a narrow margin (0.8% of the vote).
How satisfied is the United States with this Yin Xiyue?
Just five hours after delivering his victory speech, Yoon spoke on the phone with U.S. President Joe Biden on the morning of March 10, at night in Washington. According to South Korea's National Power Party, Yoon Seok-woo had planned to talk to Biden by phone on March 11, but called in advance that morning at the request of the US side.
Compared with the time of the previous south Korean president-elect and the president of the United States, this call is "rapid". Anecdotal analysis believes that under the severe international situation, the call is intended to highlight the unbreakable alliance between South Korea and the United States.
On March 9, the US White House spokesman congratulated Yoon Seok-yue on his election as the 20th president of South Korea, and said that the ties between South Korea and the United States were "as strong as steel", and the White House looked forward to continuing to maintain cooperation with the new president-elect of South Korea.
Why did the US side "condescend" and take the initiative to contact Yin Xiyue?
If Yin Xiyue did not have an Oriental face, if he only listened to his ideas, he would still think that he was an American.
1. The core of Yin Xiyue's policy is the "U.S.-South Korea Alliance"
Judging from Yoon Seok-yue's campaign platform, the core of the policy he proposed is to strengthen the ALLIANCE between the United States and South Korea. In addition, judging from its staff line in charge of foreign and security affairs, Congressman Zhao Taiyong and former second officer (vice minister) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jin Shenghan are all "American Pass", while the lineup of "China Pass" in the team is relatively weak.
Although Yoon Seok-yue's campaign platform also includes plans to promote dialogue between China and South Korea – the mainland is South Korea's largest trading partner, the two countries share common goals in resolving the nuclear and missile issues (of its northern neighbors), and it is necessary for China and South Korea to maintain and develop cooperative relations... The program also proposes to strengthen bilateral cooperation in various fields and promote high-level exchanges and dialogues.
However, the premise of all this is "to rebuild the ROK-U.S. alliance and strengthen the comprehensive strategic alliance." In the context of the Continuous Containment and Containment of China by the United States, if South Korea blindly follows the United States, it may be difficult to achieve the so-called maintenance and development of Sino-ROK cooperation, and the relations between the two countries may even deteriorate because South Korea abandons its balancing strategy.
2. Yin Xiyue is not only pro-Us, but also pro-Japanese, seeking to join the "Four-Party Security Dialogue"
At her first press conference on the morning of March 10, Yin Xiyue acknowledged that she would formally participate in the Quad Dialogue on Security, starting with cooperation on climate change and technology. This may be the first step in joining the regional military and political bloc. In September 2021, Yoon even hoped that the United States would redeploy strategic nuclear weapons in South Korea to achieve "nuclear weapons sharing." Yin Xiyue also expressed his hope to join the "Five Eyes Alliance" led by the United States and establish a "three-nation military alliance" between the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
On March 8, Yoon Seok-yue published an article in the US "Diplomacy" magazine claiming that the "central axis" of South Korean diplomacy is to build a strong ROK-US alliance, and he also criticized Moon's "vague strategy" and falsely claimed that "relations with China should be reorganized."
It has to be said that these statements and the "pro-American" remarks that are close to humility have helped Yin Xiyue win the election to a considerable extent. Meanwhile, Yoon Seok-yue's "pro-Japanese" stance was publicly praised by Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio.
Kishida said in an interview on March 10 that he "welcomes and sincerely congratulates Yoon Seok-yue on winning the presidential election," Kyodo News Agency reported. Japan-South Korea relations are now in a state of antagonism, and Kishida has high hopes for Yoon: "Healthy Japan-South Korea relations are essential for peace, stability, and prosperity in the region and the world. Expect the new president to exercise leadership. ”
There are huge contradictions between Japan and South Korea, mainly because Japan's attitude towards the crime of aggression is not sincere, and it does not admit to the issue of forcible abduction of Korean laborers and women. After South Korea's 2019 judgment on wartime extortion of labor compensation, Japan-South Korea relations fell into a low ebb. Kishida Emphasized: "Japan-South Korea relations are very serious, and we cannot ignore them like this..."
Now, Kishida Fumio has ushered in the opportunity to completely settle the account. This Yoon Seok-yue has never hidden his pro-Japanese stance, publicly accusing Moon of pursuing "anti-Japanese diplomacy" before the election, claiming that he will promote the normalization of Japan-South Korea relations after his election. As a conservative, Yoon Seok-wook is destined to choose compromises and concessions in handling Japan-South Korea relations after his election — he once said that if he tied up historical issues too much, it would make Japan-South Korea relations stagnate.
Of course, Yin Xiyue's reconciliation with Japan by abandoning national dignity is in the best interests of the United States and clears the way for the United States to build a "Triple Alliance". From this point of view, Yin Xiyue is more like an agent of the United States in the colonies.
3. Yin Xiyue advocated being tough on China and wanting to overthrow the "three noes principle" and show signs of "anti-China."
Yoon's victory, which means a return of advocates of military expansion to the Blue House, will lead South Korea to deepen its military alliance with the United States and support biden's efforts to build an alliance supply chain for key materials such as semiconductors.
At the first press conference, Yin Xiyue reiterated that "the THAAD system should be deployed additionally." This is believed to overturn Moon's "three noes" pledge made in November 2017 — that South Korea will no longer deploy a new THAAD system, will not join the U.S. military's missile defense system, and will not seek to form a U.S.-Japan-Rok military alliance. The THAAD system poses a threat to mainland security, and Yin Xiyue's remarks lack wisdom and constructiveness, and are full of "anti-China" implications.
If Yoon Seok-wook dares to make such a dangerous decision, it would mean "outposting" South Korea, or even a role close to Ukraine, and relations with its two important neighbors will also turn cold.
During the campaign phase, Mr. Yoon said he would support a "pre-emptive" strike if his northern neighbor posed a threat. About 5 years ago, South Korea disregarded peace and stability in Northeast Asia and insisted on cooperating with the US military in deploying the THAAD system, and was duly punished in economic and trade terms. At that time, South Korea's tourism and entertainment industries were hit hard.
Perhaps understanding the weaknesses, Yoon Seok-yue claimed at a press conference on March 10 that the mainland is South Korea's largest trading partner and stakeholder, and that maintaining Economic Cooperation between China and South Korea is important, but it is necessary to reduce dependence on China.
It can be said that this statement is difficult to say how much goodwill it contains, but it is full of untimely vigilance and even hostility.
4. Whoever becomes the president of South Korea will teach him to be a man
To understand the presidential election in South Korea, we must first understand the essence of South Korea. In a way, South Korea is a semi-colony disguised as a developed country. Countries that accept U.S. troops have no independence to speak of, and the so-called "dignity" is nothing more than self-consolation.
Because of this, the outcome of the U.S. manipulation of South Korea's presidential election is not at all secret. According to statistics, Yoon Seok-yue won 48.56% of the vote, and the ruling party's joint democratic party candidate Lee Jae-myung won 47.83% of the vote, and the vote gap was less than 1%, that is, about 250,000 votes, which is the most glued presidential election in South Korean history.
It has to be mentioned that Yin Xiyue is more satisfactory to the United States, and Li Zaiming of the progressive camp is only barely acceptable. Now, as Washington's containment of rising powers continues to intensify, there is no patience for South Korea to maintain its fragile neutrality and balance.
The pinnacle of Sino-ROK relations is Sino-US relations. Under the shadow of the great powers, the independence of the Blue House basically comes from gifts. In other words, it does not matter who becomes the president of South Korea, what matters is the manner, intensity, and outcome of U.S.-China interactions that will determine South Korea's diplomacy.
This reality, which allows the South Korean president to learn how to behave, is actually the dynamic change in the balance of power between China and the United States.
Yoon Seok-yue is a "political amateur" nicknamed "The Trump of South Korea". In order to cater to South Korea's narrow populism and young people's votes, he can emphasize being tough on China in the campaign outline, but reality does not allow him to honor the contents of the campaign outline. Not only because there is still a containment force in south Korea's progressive camp, but the most fundamental reason is that the rise and strength of the mainland have forced South Korea to maintain a balance between China and the United States.
It is conceivable that Yin Xiyue will carry out a series of trials at the beginning of his presidency. But the South Korean side should recognize the reality, "security depends on the United States, the economy depends on the mainland" has become the consensus of almost all parties in South Korea, and Yoon Seok-yue's new government is best not to break through the bottom line, so as not to bring South Korea into the ditch. Compared with 5 years ago, the mainland is now more powerful, and there are more interesting things in the toolbox, and South Korea can't stand it after trying.
China and the ROK are close neighbors who cannot be moved away, and they are also important partners who are inseparable from each other. The ROK side should clearly understand the reality, choose the way of acting that best suits its own interests, and not repeat the mistakes of the past because of ignorance and arrogance. (End)