China News Network, March 9 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) "We have listened to the promise of the West for 13 days ... Politicians say they will supply Ukrainian with combat aircraft, but this is not the case", on March 8, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy asked in a video speech, where is the substantial support of the West for Ukraine?
As of March 9, Russia has been conducting special military operations in Ukraine for two weeks, and the two sides have been negotiating for three rounds.
President of Ukraine Zelenskiy.
Since the 6th, the Ukrainian side has successively released the "loose mouth" signal, and President Zelenskiy and members of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation have successively said that it has been clear that Ukraine will not join NATO for a long time to come. The EU has also stated that the current issue of Ukraine's accession to the EU is not a priority matter for discussion.
How will Ukraine decide?
【Ukraine's attitude, changed?】 】
At the beginning of the negotiations, the Ukrainian side demanded that the Russian army withdraw from all areas, including Crimea and Donbass. Later, Zelenskiy offered to have a direct dialogue with Putin himself. He played the emotional card and said: "Sit down with me, don't be 30 meters apart, I am your neighbor."
However, the "hard and soft hands" were rejected by the Russian side.
In this game, Ukraine has few chips to hand. In the eight years since the "Square Riots" overthrew Yanukovych's regime in 2014, the United States and the West have spent a lot of money and failed to build up the country's military strength.
Neither the "arch fire" in advance to supply a large number of troops, or the emergency blood transfusion of the Western "after-the-horse cannon" type after the Russian march, cannot fundamentally reverse the situation.
On March 2, local time, firefighters were attacked near the Kharkiv Police Station building in Ukraine, and firefighters extinguished the fire.
Ukraine also recognizes one thing – the dream of joining NATO is ultimately a big dream.
In the early days of the Russian army entering Ukraine, Zelenskiy accused the "West of completely abandoning Ukraine" and repeatedly called for immediate accession to NATO and the European Union. Over time, the Ukrainian caliber has changed.
On the 6th, Alahamiya, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation and chairman of the parliamentary group of the Ukrainian People's Public Servants Party, said that in the past 5 or 10 years, NATO is not prepared to discuss the issue of Ukraine's accession, and the Ukrainian side is willing to discuss the "non-NATO" security model.
On March 1, local time, the square of the government building in the center of Kharkov, Ukraine, was shelled.
On the 8th, Zelenskiy further said that after realizing that NATO was not ready to accept Ukraine, he "has lost interest in this matter." He believes NATO is "afraid of confrontation with Russia."
Zelenskiy once again stressed that he was ready to open a dialogue with the Russian side. "The war should be ended, and negotiations should be sat down," the Ukrainian side said as he sought a compromise with the Russian side on "how to live" for the people of Crimea and the Donbass region.
【Joining the European Union?】 Changed? 】
Zelenskiy's other hope is to join the European Union, and he recently signed the Ukrainian application documents overnight.
In this regard, the EU has verbally expressed "emotional support". On March 1, the European Parliament passed a non-decisive, non-binding resolution saying it would "endeavour" to grant Ukraine candidate status. In other words, Ukraine is not even a candidate for membership now.
On the 6th, European Commission President von der Leyen, who had described the "unprecedented closeness" of Ukraine-Eu relations, also stated that There are clear provisions and procedures for Ukraine's accession to the EU that cannot be bypassed, and it cannot be achieved overnight, but at the earliest, she did not have a clear answer.
Infographic: European Commission President von der Leyen.
The analysis believes that it is difficult for the EU to absorb Ukraine at present. First, whether in terms of economic, social development, stability or integrity, Ukraine is far from the member state standards required by the EU. THE PER CAPITA GDP of EU member states is above $8,000, while Ukraine's per capita GDP in 2020 is less than $3,700, the lowest among European countries.
Second, Ukraine is currently one of the biggest factors of instability in the region, and if it cannot achieve neutrality and stay away from the war, it is difficult for any regional organization to include it "out of sympathy" alone. Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously made it clear in a meeting with German Chancellor Schoelz that Russia demanded that Ukraine maintain its neutral position. If accession breaks Russia's conditions, the EU will bear more costs.
Third, Ukraine's accession to the European Union cannot be special. At present, there are five countries that are candidates for EU accession - Turkey, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, these countries have not entered the EU gate for many years, Ukraine can "cut in line" ahead of the curve? Whether to accept Ukraine requires the consent of all 27 member states of the European Union, and any one country has the right of veto.
At present, Europe is more of a political stance of "lip service but not reality" to appease Ukraine, and Ukraine is still a long way from joining the Union.
【Russian conditions, changed?】 】
Looking at Russia, on March 7, Russia once again listed the conditions for a ceasefire.
The author notes that the conditions set by the Russian side after the third round of negotiations are different from those on February 28 when Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke. ↓↓
The conditions proposed by the Russian side for the settlement of the Ukrainian question. Draft: Meng Xiangjun of China News Network
With the advancement of the operation, on the 7th, the Russian side announced that it would complete the demilitarization of Ukraine, and the task of attacking the military infrastructure in Ukraine was nearing completion. The analysis believes that this is no longer the primary concern of the Russian side and is understandable. The Russian side's demand that ukraine stop all military operations also shows its strong position in the negotiations.
At the same time, the demand for the neutral status of Uzbekistan became concrete, requiring it to be written into the Constitution. This reflects that the Russian side hopes to "hammer the nail on the head" through this opportunity to determine that Ukraine will not fall to NATO and the West in the long run. Ukraine, you have written "nato membership" into the national constitution, and I now ask you to put "neutral status" into the constitution. Whether you join the European Union or NATO, you have completely stopped thinking about it.
On March 8, local time, in the city of Samui, Ukraine, people were evacuating.
In fact, if it maintains its neutral position, Ukraine will become a "pressure relief valve" and "cushion" for a potential direct conflict between Russia and NATO, rather than a fuse. This is not only beneficial to Russia, but also a good choice for Ukraine's own long-term peace and stability.
On the issue of recognizing crimea's status, the Russian side did not change its position, and added a demand that Ukraine recognize the "independence" of Uzbekistan and eastern Ukraine. This means that if Ukraine agrees to the conditions, it can be said that it has "lost its wife and folded its soldiers."
Also, let's take a look at two messages. News 1: Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers will hold talks on March 10. Contact must come step by step, or start with the delegation and then go to the diplomatic high level. In a short period of time, the level of contact between the two sides has risen significantly, which is already a positive signal.
News two, comprehensive observation, for the safe evacuation of civilians, in recent days, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is becoming more and more frequent. What does this mean for the situation?
【The European mentality, has changed?】 】
A fire broke out at a military installation near the airport in Mariupol, Ukraine.
Looking at Europe, countries react very strongly to Russia's entry into Ukraine. The European Union broke the historical taboo by providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, a party to the conflict; the traditional neutral countries of Switzerland, Sweden, and Finland launched sanctions against Russia; Poland transferred all MiG-29 fighter jets to Germany for free to be disposed of by the United States.
A series of changes in Germany are even more remarkable, not only for The Supply of Arms to Ukraine, but also the recently appointed Schoerz government has also subverted the "rules" after World War II and allocated 100 billion euros to increase armaments, raising the defense budget to 2% of GDP, achieving a "historic turn".
After years of efforts, the Merkel government even disregarded the Obstruction of the United States to finally complete the German-Russian cooperation "Nord Stream 2" natural gas pipeline project, which was also frozen in one fell swoop, and finally fulfilled the wish of the United States.
On March 6, local time, the vehicle passed a gas station in San Mateo County, California. Oil prices in the United States and Europe have been high in recent days. Photo by Liu Guanguan, a reporter of the China News Service
Europe, which is highly dependent on Russian energy, was originally struggling to drop the SWIFT "financial nuclear bomb", but in the end it gritted its teeth and made a decision. With the release of sanctions, the already high oil and gas prices in Europe are soaring like rockets, which can really be described as netizens said, "hurt the enemy 1000 rubles, self-damage to 800 euros"!
The moves reflect the peak of Europe's own insecurity and the further fragmentation of European-Russian relations. Some commentators said that "what the United States has wanted Germany to do for many years but cannot do, Putin has done it in a few days."
European countries are increasingly developing the concept of strategic autonomy, stimulated by this time, or there are two trends. One is that germany has begun to "arm itself," and the other is that it has to move closer to the United States and NATO to "hold the group" and be further tied to the chariot. Either way, it is not a good sign and deserves the vigilance of the international community. (End)