Text | Huang Huiling
Edit | Lu Ling
"I thought it was Black Monday, but I didn't expect it to be Black Week." In the helpless ridicule of netizens, the A shares on March 9 continued the recent downward trend. The Shanghai index briefly rushed higher and fell back in the morning, with the largest intraday decline of nearly 4%, losing 3200 points. The afternoon decline narrowed and was in a V-shaped trend throughout the day.
By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.13 percent at 3,256 points; the Shenzhen Component Index was down 1.12 percent and the ChiNext Index was down 0.63 percent. 3598 individual stocks in the two markets fell, and 1080 rose. The net outflow of northbound funds was 10.934 billion yuan. In terms of sectors, office supplies, coal, eastern and western calculations, semiconductor silicon wafers, etc. rose in the front, and nickel ore, cobalt ore, medical care, real estate, education and other declines were in the front.
As of March 9, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 5.5% in three trading days this week. Since the beginning of this year, the mainstream index of the market has fallen across the board, and the ChiNext 50 index, which has fallen the most, has fallen by more than 24%. The average decline of 14,990 funds in the whole market was nearly 8%, and the average decline of domestic and foreign equity funds was about 15%, which was basically synchronized with the broader market.
In the face of the continuous decline in the market, various institutions have also given their own views. Some optimists believe that the negative factors have been fully reflected, and the decline is nearing the end. Some cautious people said that the short-term shock will continue, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the market facing greater redemption pressure and financing pledge risks.
However, in the medium to long term, the institutional consensus is clear. Cinda Australia Bank Fund related people told the "Finance" reporter, "We still have great confidence in this year's market, I hope that investors will not lose confidence because of short-term emotional fluctuations, make a reasonable allocation of funds according to their own risk tolerance, and cherish the layout opportunities brought about by market corrections." ”
Why does it keep falling?
After three days of continuous decline, the reaction of netizens is "falling numb", and the reaction of institutional people is "the comments are not moving". What is the reason for the continuous decline of A shares? The views of the reporter of "Finance" reporter are as follows:
Overseas, concerns about global inflation have superimposed expectations of a liquidity crunch. Overseas geopolitical risk events have led to a short-term rise in oil prices, exacerbating concerns about global inflation. The Fed's recent interest rate hike has also reinforced expectations of a global liquidity crunch.
"The commodity price contradiction continues. Today, ICE cloth oil once again exceeded 130 US dollars / barrel, and precious metals, agricultural products and other varieties performed strongly. In February, the domestic PPI grew by 8.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned positive again month-on-month, reflecting the price pressure brought about by the rise in energy products such as kerosene. Huatai Berry Fund analysis, CPI 0.9% year-on-year at a low level, but the second quarter pig cycle bottomed, agrochemical potential price increases and other factors may drive CPI back to the upside. Since March, the impact of the market's risk appetite on overseas geopolitical events has gradually weakened, but the stagflation concerns caused by commodity price increases have been difficult to subside, which has become an important factor restricting the market.
"Geopolitical conflicts are a catalyst, not a root cause, of accelerated energy prices." Wang Jing, chief strategist of Chuangjin Hexin Fund, believes that even if the situation eases and commodity prices fall, it is difficult to form a downward trend, which is rooted in the lack of return on capital in the upstream and insufficient capital expenditure in the context of double carbon, and the short-term release of production capacity is difficult. "As far as current observations are concerned, the intensity of capital expenditure remains weak, meaning that the tight energy supply pattern will last longer than expected."
In addition, the market also has some concerns about the outflow of overseas funds from China. "The Norwegian Sovereign Fund, the world's largest sovereign fund, has removed Li Ning from the investment list, triggering concerns about overseas capital outflows from the Chinese market." Relevant people of Yongying Fund told the "Finance" reporter that after the obvious adjustment in the domestic market, the domestic market once had a negative feedback effect of passive decline in liquidity.
"From the perspective of the disk, the absolute return of funds to close the position or an important pusher." Wang Jing said that since the beginning of this year, the return drawdown of equity funds has been large, and the median return of stock funds and partial stock funds is about -16%, or triggering bank wealth management or insurance funds redemption stop loss. A large number of private equity funds are still near the stop loss line, which is also a hidden worry about triggering a liquidity crisis.
"In terms of the domestic economy, the official PMI in February was 50.2, the level of prosperity improved slightly, and the scale of credit and the total amount of social financing in January exceeded market expectations, but the structure is still difficult to say satisfactory, which has intensified the market's concerns about stable growth." Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager of the Great Wall Fund, believes.
The market is waiting for more signals
"In the short term, from the perspective of historical laws, A shares are often weak during the national 'two sessions', and after the 'two sessions', they are stronger again." CITIC Prudential Fund said that in addition to the short-term possible oversold rebound, the quarterly report is also worth paying attention to. However, in the medium term, there are still many unfavorable factors, such as rising global inflation expectations, geopolitical risks leading to foreign capital outflows, declining earnings growth, and concerns about policy strength.
"At present, the entire market is in a weak operating state, the market is in a short-term capital outflow reduction game environment, to reverse the current trend requires more patience and time, but also need more fundamental data verification and confirmation." Yao Zhipeng, investment director of harvest fund growth style, said.
Yao Zhipeng believes that after the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, the probability of global inflation risk is rising, and the cost-driven inflation transmitted from energy prices may continue for a period of time, and the trend of corporate profits transmitted from upstream to middle and lower reaches is temporarily under certain pressure. However, the introduction of the relevant policies of the "two sessions" on the one hand has reshaped the confidence in economic growth, on the other hand, with the gradual implementation of specific measures, it will also be able to stabilize the risk appetite of the market.
"The recent spread of the epidemic and the sharp decline in the latest real estate sales have made market concerns unable to be alleviated. However, historically, the economic growth targets set by the central government have been completed or even exceeded, and we must have patience and confidence in the development of the policy of stabilizing growth. Wang Jing said that the valuation of China's stock market is not high, after the decline, the absolute point of the Shanghai 50 Index has returned to the range during the epidemic in 2020, and the relative position has come to the bottom support of the 2015 stock market crash, the 2016 circuit breaker, the 2018 trade war, and the 2020 new crown epidemic, and the margin of safety has been enhanced. According to historical experience, after the liquidity crisis is lifted, the market recovery is a high probability event.
"The fund's heavy stocks are the hardest hit areas of this round of adjustment, and whether the relevant killing momentum has been released has yet to be verified." However, it is undeniable that the current point is already a very valuable bottom area, and many individual stocks have fallen out of the gold pit, which is a rare layout opportunity for long-term funds. Huang Qianyi, fund manager of Taixin Fund, said in an interview with Caijing.
"From the government work report, we can see that the fiscal revenue in the second half of 2020 and the whole year of 2021 is better than the budget, and the fiscal pocket has accumulated, which can provide support for this year's fiscal force; on the whole, the strength of the 2022 fiscal budget is more certain, but in the short term, it is necessary to continue to track the relevant changes such as social finance credit to verify the wide credit." China Post Fund said.
"We still have great confidence in this year's market, and hope that investors will not lose confidence because of short-term emotional fluctuations, make reasonable allocation of funds according to their own risk tolerance, and cherish the layout opportunities brought by market corrections." Cinda Australia Bank Fund said.
Huaxia Fund also said that the market will inevitably rise and fall, long-term investment can ignore short-term fluctuations, there is no outstanding ability to choose time, do not trade the fund as a stock. At the same time, it can be diversified, in the investment layout, do not concentrate on a single plate or theme products, low valuation and high prosperity plate balanced collocation, low risk and high risk products are organically combined, which is more conducive to reducing portfolio fluctuations in the shock market.