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(i)
Seemingly casual details actually reveal an ulterior motive.
We used to say that it was a week to change the world. But the time passed quickly, and in a flash, the war had entered its 14th day, a full two weeks.
There are signs that the situation is changing subtly.
Totally personal opinion, at least 5 things.
1, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy admitted in an interview with the US ABC yesterday that after understanding NATO's reluctance to accept Ukraine, he has no longer cooled down about joining NATO.
While vowing that Ukraine would not "surrender" and asking the West to continue to aid Ukraine in resisting Russian forces, Zelenskiy also expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue on Russia's recognition of the independent "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" and to find a compromise on how the territory would survive.
What does that mean?
The interpretation of the Russian news agency is that Zelenskiy announced the possibility of seeking compromise on the issue of Urdong and Crimea.
2, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Putin on the phone again, saying that he asked Putin to cease fire, but Putin refused, which made their regular talks "difficult".
Note his subsequent remarks, while accusing Putin of making "a historic mistake," Macron also said that peoples must be respected and "and ensure that no country, no one is humiliated.".
And, "Russia and the Russian people should also be respected, and there will be no lasting peace if Russia is not part of the grand peace architecture [of our continent]." Because history and geography are stubborn. ”
What do you mean?
At least Macron is reflecting on why Russia is taking such military action.
3, for the United States and Britain continue to put pressure, asking the Eu to cut off the import of Russian energy. German Chancellor Schoelz made it clear that Germany was in favor of "broad and targeted sanctions" against Russia, but that did not include sanctions on Russian energy.
Why?
The reason is simple, without Russian gas, Germans have a difficult life.
Not only Germany, but also many countries in the European Union. Bulgarian Prime Minister Petkov said that Bulgaria supports all sanctions against Russia, except for the oil and gas ban, if the import of Russian oil and gas is prohibited, "we have no choice but to ask for exemptions, we are too dependent."
More than half of the EU's energy products depend on imports, with Russia providing 41 percent of natural gas, 46 percent of coal and 27 percent of oil. Germany, in particular, relies on Russia for 55% of its gas supply.
What does this mean?
Both the EU and Germany have strong reservations about sanctions against Russia.
But the situation is very strange, and there have been other developments.
4, US President Biden announced yesterday that it is forbidden to import Russian oil and gas resources. By convention, Britain certainly followed, and even ahead of, the United States.
Does the United States really want to cut off all resource cooperation with Russia?
It doesn't seem to be either.
Immediately see a Reuters report that the U.S. ban does not include uranium necessary for nuclear power plants.
Because quite simply, the United States does not produce and process uranium, and half of the uranium products imported from U.S. nuclear power plants come from Russia.
Pressure was put on the European Union and Germany to ban Russian oil and gas; the United States did itself, and Russian oil and gas were not important to itself anyway, but the very important uranium was not included.
What doctrine is said is actually business and calculation.
5, Poland suddenly announced yesterday that it will transfer all Russian (Soviet) MiG-29 fighters in the warehouse to the United States, and transport them directly to the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where the US military is located.
The United States you are not repeatedly urging, we are going to help Ukraine, to provide these MiG-29s, we will take it out, the next step, the United States you should compensate us F-16.
The U.S. response was interesting, "surprised," said U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Newland: "As far as I know, they plan to hand over these planes to us and have not consulted with us in advance." ”
Because the planes were eventually going to Ukraine, Poland was east of Ukraine, but these MiG-29s were sent to Germany in the west, so how to give them to Ukraine?
Poland's move is understandable. Because Russia has made it clear that it will attack any convoy carrying weapons into Ukraine, not to mention that warplanes fly directly into Ukraine from Poland, it is possible to provoke war.
Therefore, Polish President Duda has previously made it clear that Poland will not send warplanes to Ukraine, nor will it allow any country to use Polish airfields to transfer fighters to Ukraine.
How to get the next step, the United States you look at it, I did it according to your requirements anyway.
(ii)
In fact, there are many subtle changes.
I believe we have all seen that yesterday a major event, the leaders of China, France, Germany held a special video summit, focusing on the situation in Ukraine.
The impression is that the video summit between the three leaders is still the first time.
Looking at Xinhua News Agency, Macron and Scholz introduced their views and positions on the current situation in Ukraine, saying that Europe is facing the most serious crisis since World War II, and France and Germany support the settlement of the problem through negotiations and give peace an opportunity, "Thank you for the humanitarian situation initiative put forward by the Chinese side, and are willing to strengthen communication and coordination with the Chinese side, persuade and promote talks, and avoid further escalation of the situation and a more serious humanitarian crisis." ”
Note the urgency of Macron and Schultz's rhetoric, "Europe is facing its worst crisis since World War II," and "thanks" to the Chinese side for its initiative.
China's leaders made it clear:
At present, the situation in Ukraine is worrying, and China deeply deplores the rekindling of war on the European continent. China maintains that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations should be respected, the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously, and all efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of crises should be supported. It is imperative to avoid escalating tensions, or even spiraling out of control. China appreciates the efforts made by France and Germany to mediate the situation in Ukraine, is willing to maintain communication and coordination with France, Germany and the European side, and plays an active role with the international community in accordance with the needs of the parties concerned.
I will not quote the specific content one by one, you can see the detailed report of Xinhua News Agency.
Interestingly, when the Chinese leader spoke, we could see macron and Scholz nodding their heads.
Some of China's insights have also made France and Germany feel closely related.
Quite simply, who among the world's great powers would not want Ukraine to be at war?
France should count one, Germany even more counts as one, because the war in Ukraine, the biggest burden, must be the European Union, the first is Germany and France.
Macron has been running back and forth for a while, and the phone calls are non-stop, which is really hard. Of course, there is a need for France's internal affairs, he wants to continue to run for the presidency, to fully show his ability and courage; but more importantly, France really hopes that the situation in Ukraine will be calmed, and if nothing else, a few million refugees alone will be enough for France and Germany to drink a pot.
Not to mention China.
As I said earlier, is there a big country in this world that abides by international rules more than China? Is there a great power that respects the sovereignty of other countries more than China? Is there a great power that values peace more than China?
The answer is just two words: no!
We really deplore the war in Ukraine. Therefore, we have repeatedly told the world that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, and the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously...
The United States and Britain certainly cannot listen, but France and Germany should be reflecting.
The situation is no better than two weeks ago, and change is constantly happening.
According to the arrangement, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kureba met in Turkey on March 10. This was also the first time that the foreign ministers of the two countries met after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Hopefully, there will be a breakthrough.
Finally, what do you think?
The situation changes every day, so I won't say more about the rutting, so let's talk about two o'clock today.
First, reflect, reflect, reflect.
France is reflecting, Germany is reflecting, Ukraine should be reflecting.
Of course, attacking Russia is still politically correct in the West, but in some countries, there are subtle changes in rhetoric. That's the reality, and if you look closely, you can see it.
Somewhat regrettably, Zelenskiy's willingness to compromise has mostly been skipped by the Western mainstream media, which cites more of his determination to fight to the end.
Alas, the news should be comprehensive!
Second, arch fire, arch fire, arch fire.
This does not need to be said more, everyone's eyes should be shiny.
So, the Poles simply completed a flash mob, and finally "shocked" the United States. With so many MiG-29s, you don't send them east to Ukraine, but west to Germany. Isn't that a problem for me?
Next, how do Americans "move away"? How will Russia respond?
Let's continue to eat melon and watch, the mood is very relaxed, but also very heavy.