By Mark Johnson
Translator: Yi Ersan
Proofreader: Qin Tian
Source: Awards Daily (September 19, 2021)
With the three major film festivals of Venice, Telluride and Toronto coming to an end, we have reached the end of the awards season. Almost all the seeded players have already appeared. The audience was amazed. Film companies are poised to move. The Oscar race is becoming clearer. The ultimate Best Picture winner is likely to have been screened at one (or more) of the film festivals, and the last 14 films that have won this accolade have all participated in at least one of the Venice-Telluride-Toronto Trilogy. The last winner to skip these outposts was Martin Scorsese's Infernal Affairs (2006).
Infernal Affairs (2006)
A world premiere at one of the three major outposts also often has an added bonus: in the past eleven years, only The Artist and Parasite have chosen to premiere before these film festivals (Cannes) and still win the top Oscar.
That being said, in Plato's words, we live in a strange time. With the comeback of the coronavirus and its variants, the postponement of the Oscars, and all the other unknowns that seem to jump out every other day or two, will we see a break in tradition?
Currently on the first echelon is Kenneth Branagh's shocking and profound memoir Belfast. The film was screened in Both Telluride and Toronto and was well received by critics and general audiences alike. Belfast's script, scheduling and performances are excellent, and the pace is refreshing (the 97-minute length is also very relaxed).
Belfast (2021)
Branagh's masterpiece is emotionally charged — tender, cheerful and nostalgic — and when looking at the Oscars list, it gets ticked in the box of almost every major entry. In short, does it have the potential to be recognized by the Screen Actors Guild Awards? Tick. What about the Producers Guild of America Awards and the Directors Guild of America Awards? Two ticks. What about the BAFTA Awards? Tick. Do film critics and audiences like it? Tick. Can it withstand the criticism and criticism that came with being an early frontrunner? I believe you can. It's a film that gets a lot of first votes in the preferred voting system. At least for now... I'll give it my first vote.
Eighteen Toronto Film Festival People's Choice Award winners have ended up nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture since 1978 (that's happened 12 times in the past 13 years). Seven of the films took home best picture awards: Chariot of Fire, American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King's Speech, Twelve Years of Slavery, Green Book, and The Land of NoBody. And this year's People's Choice Awards go to Belfast, which is clearly the current Olympic favourite.
"The Power of Dogs" is another seed contestant, jane Campion won the Silver Lion for best director at the Venice Film Festival. Campion became the second female director to receive the award, following in the footsteps of other female directors (Zhao Ting won the Academy Award for Best Picture/Best Director for "No Man's Land"; Giulia di Kuno won the Palme d'Or at Cannes for "Titanium"). And that could be just the first of many awards the New Zealand director will receive this year.
The Power of Dogs (2021)
However, Campion's new work, while impressive, is not the most Oscar-liking genre, and reviews can be polarized. The last film of its kind to win the Academy Award for Best Picture was probably "Old And Alone" (2007), two years before the resumption of the preferred voting system.
The Old Man Has No One to Rely on (2007)
Other films that have performed well at previous major film festivals and are expected to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture include: "King Richard", "Sirano", "Dune", "Calling Friends", "Spencer", "The Worst Man in the World", "Little Mama", "Parallel Mother", "Daughter in the Shadows" and "Main Competition".
Several of the films will feature star-studded contenders for the Oscars, including Will Smith (King Richard), Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Peter Dinky (Sirano), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mother) and Jessica Chastain (Tammy Fie's Eyes). Together with the actors from Belfast (Katrina Balf, Jamie Donan, Seren Side, Judy Dench and Jude Hill), as well as Benedict Cumberbatch, Kstin Dunster and Curtie Smit-McPhee in Canine Power, they will form a considerable shortlist.
King Richard (2021)
Why does screening at these film festivals consistently influence the Oscar race?
First, it builds early loyalty and excitement through word of mouth. I'm not a psychologist, but after 13 years in a row writing about the Oscar race, I know a lot of people tend to focus on a movie and canvass for it throughout the awards season. If a member of the Academy falls in love with a movie early on, it must be less likely to vote for another movie when the vote arrives?
Spencer (2021)
The prestige or reputation of these film festivals is more than just getting people to watch movies in advance. This gives film companies and PR staff a great opportunity to launch promotional campaigns. These events allow for a start in a welcoming and exciting setting, such as the picturesque mountain village of Telluride or the lavish red carpet on the Venetian Island of Lido. It's often a soft landing for strong competitors, which helps build momentum and raise expectations when starting their campaign journey with full horsepower, sometimes allowing them to stand out early on the shortlist. And they can usually maintain that momentum both during awards season.
Sirano (2021)
Another important reason for screening at the film festival is that it gives the film time to rise, settle, and rise again. Recall the 2012 debut of Escape from Tehran at the Telluride Film Festival. It immediately became the front-runner. Then, once the bubble inflates too much, there will be a lot of avalanche of accusations and fabrications about the film's historical errors.
But perhaps thanks to its early screening — favored by academy members — "Escape from Tehran" bounced back in time to win the Oscars. Those criticisms may have been enough to cause Ben Affleck to lose his nomination for Best Director, but it wasn't enough to stop the film from winning Best Picture.
Escape from Tehran (2012)