【Editor's Note】This article is authorized by the author Chen Jiehua and reproduced from the public account "Crisis Management Chen Jiehua".
First, the stage of war
The Russo-Ukrainian War went through four stages
Phase I Crisis:
At this stage, the author published a number of analyses, see the appendix at the end of the article.
Stage 2 Blitzkrieg:
From February 24 to February 28
Stage 3 Talk while playing:
From February 28 to what day of the month?
Phase IV Finale: Signing of the Peace Treaty and Supervision of Implementation
When it comes to the Russo-Ukrainian War, who wins and who loses must first determine the meaning of victory or defeat.
From a military point of view, one side completely defeats the other, which is the end of victory and defeat.
From a political point of view, the military is the means to achieve political goals, and political goals are the core.
Therefore, we must be clear about what are the political demands of both sides.
2. Political objectives of the war
List of Russian targets:
It is widely believed that Putin has 3 goals.
It must be wrong to understand this way. Putin pursues a set of interconnected goals:
1. De-militarization
2. De-Nazismization
3. Neutralization (no deployment of weapons in Ukraine)
4. Membership in NATO is prohibited
5. The possession of nuclear weapons is prohibited
(6) Ukraine recognized the annexation of Crimea to Russia
7. Uber recognizes the independence of Luhansk
8. U. U. recognizes the independence of Doneesk
9. 3 lands may also have to be ceded: Kharkiv, Kherson, and Odessa
List of ukrainian targets
Three objectives of the Ukrainian side before the start of the war:
1. Join NATO
2. Accession to the European Union
3. Retake Crimea
After the start of the war, the Ukrainian side had 3 goals
1. Immediate truce
2. Immediately withdraw from Ukraine
3. Crimea, Luhansk, Doneesk returned to Ukraine
(i.e., armistice, withdrawal +3 return)
Iii. The Russo-Ukrainian War has three outcomes
Thus, there are only 3 possibilities for the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War:
1. Wu Quansheng
That is, Russia fully accepts the three political demands of Ukraine before the start of the war, and also fully accepts the three goals of the Ukrainian side after the start of the war.
The premise must be the complete defeat of the Russian army.
Obviously, the current war situation proves that the "victory of the U-Wu Quan" has been completely excluded.
2. Russia wins completely
That is, Ukraine fully accepts 8 to 9 of Putin's demands.
The premise must be the complete defeat of the Ukrainian army.
Obviously, in the current war situation, Russia has not achieved this step;
Politically, no one in Ukraine will accept Putin's list at the moment, and the forces behind it will not agree.
3. Compromise
There are many compromises between the Russian target list and the Ukrainian target list. But the key is not that diplomats dominate peace talks, but that every word in the peace treaty must be written by victory or defeat on the battlefield.
In the second phase of the war, it was impossible for the two sides to reach an agreement.
Thus, the war entered the third stage, talking while fighting.
4. War strategy
The second stage of the Russian strategy and objectives:
First, we will review Russia's strategy and goals in the second stage.
1. Blitzkrieg. Objective: Precision strike core facilities
However, Russia is subject to two important conditions:
First, humanitarian restrictions
During World War II, the German-Japanese Blitzkrieg, without any humanitarian constraints, could carry out the most thorough indiscriminate bombardment against the enemy.
Russia does not dare to learn from the indiscriminate bombardment of Iraq and Syria by the United States, after all, it is to mobilize troops against its own Slavic brothers.
Second, funding restrictions
Bombing indiscriminately, dropping bombs, and money behind them.
Therefore, the goal set by the Russian blitzkrieg is to accurately strike the core target, but Russia's financial resources are not as good as the United States, and the missile launch against Ukraine is obviously very small, which is not enough to completely destroy the core facilities.
2. Knock on the mountain and shock the tiger. Goal: To cause panic among the Ukrainian people, capital flight, and production paralysis
3. Spatial segmentation. Objective: Paralyze the U.S. counterattack ability
Many experts at home and abroad believe that Russia has failed in the blitzkrieg and will lose the whole thing after a protracted war.
I do not agree with such a judgment at all. For reason, Putin would not be stupid enough to "make blitzkrieg the ultimate solution." On the contrary, Putin is well aware that Ukraine cannot accept the Russian target list in its entirety after the initial defeat. Therefore, we must accurately see that Putin has a complete phased battle plan.
Putin's strategic tasks in the second phase should be said to have been fully realized. So, it moved to the third stage.
The third stage is the Russian strategy and objectives
On February 28, after the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine began, the war entered the third stage, and Russia's strategy and goals were:
1. Wait for work
As mentioned earlier, Russia is financially and humanitarianly constrained, and it is impossible to carry out a large-scale strike on the entire territory of Ukraine at the same time. Therefore, the best strategy is to complete the division of Ukraine in small pieces, and then wait and wait to see the deep paralysis of the whole territory of Ukraine.
2. Empty city meter
This is the opposite of Zhuge Liang's empty city plan. Under the banner of "humanitarianism," Russia has opened up "humanitarian channels" for large and medium-sized cities in Ukraine. The scheme will be written into textbooks and annals of history.
Zelenskiy immediately agreed to the Russian proposal. His IQ and experience are so little, the current problem, it is too difficult for him.
3. Draw salary from the bottom of the cauldron
Russia's opening of the "humanitarian channel" is to turn Kiev and other cities into empty cities and to carry out a salary draw from the bottom of the barrel against Ukraine, and the consequences of this are detailed below.
4. Cut the meat with a blunt knife
5. Cut the sausage meter
At this point in the war, the most anxious is President Zelenskiy, the least anxious is President Putin, and the happiest is President Biden.
Putin has effectively divided the major cities, regions, and major transportation routes in Ukraine, occupied the best positions, and destroyed them.
Now, even if Putin does not make any moves, even if the Russian army stays still in Ukraine, it will inevitably lead to the complete paralysis of the administration, economy and finance of Ukraine, and let Ukraine suffocate to death.
Therefore, the longer the Ukrainian side delays, the more serious the paralysis and blood loss.
6. Talk while fighting
Russia and Ukraine negotiated, but the pace was clearly very slow.
The Russian side saw through the Thoughts and Confusion of the Ukrainian side, so Putin calculated that "riding a donkey to read the record book - singing while walking."
Putin is now letting the army continue to attack Ukrainian military facilities every day, and shrinking the encirclement every day.
Stage 3 Ukrainian Strategy and Objectives:
1. Delaying the army
The goals to be achieved by the Ukrainian side should be:
First, the armistice, U. needs to catch his breath.
Second, slow down. Before the war, the United States and Europe vowed to support Ukraine in the fight against Russia. However, after the war between Russia, the United States and Europe all fled without a trace. Ukraine is in a state of extreme isolation, and now surrenders, and Uzbekistan is unwilling; continuing the war with Russia, Uzbekistan is too weak.
Wu didn't know how to fight this battle? How does this game of chess go? It takes time, find another way.
2. Sky-high asking prices
This strategy is to realize the "strategy of delaying the army" and is a "plan in the middle of the plan" . The Ukrainian side proposed "truce, withdrawal of troops + 3 return", knowing that the Russian side will not accept it at all, but the purpose of the Ukrainian side is to delay, trying to drag the Russian blitzkrieg into a protracted war and wait for a miracle to happen.
3. Kidnapping the West
Glorification of Ukraine: Zelenskiy is trying to put gold on his stupid war: Ukraine is fighting for democracy; Ukraine is fighting for Europe; Ukraine is fighting against Russia.
Vilifying Russia: Putin is a dictator, Russia is an aggressor.
Intimidation of Europe: The fall of Ukraine = the inevitable fall of Europe.
Four requirements:
Demand that the West enter the war;
Demand that the West set up a no-fly zone in Ukraine;
Demand for weapons from the West;
Ask the West for funding.
The success or failure of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations does not depend on diplomacy, but on the military.
Military victory or defeat does not depend entirely on the battlefield, but on the huge and complex system behind the battlefield.
In the following, we will make a brief and detailed comparison of the large system behind the war, only in this way can we accurately predict who wins and who loses.
V. Comparison of the SystemIc Factors Determining the Victory or Defeat of Russia and Ukraine
1. Military strength
The following table shows the destruction of Ukrainian ground military facilities in the 11 days since the beginning of the war.
Table: Russian forces from February 24 to March 6
| As of the date | Russia destroyed Ukrainian military facilities Total | Average number of destructions per day |
| February 24 | 83 pcs | |
| February 26 | 821 pcs | 369 |
| February 27 | 1067 pcs | 246 |
| February 28 | The first round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine | |
| March 2 | 1533 places | 155 pcs |
| March 3 | The second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine | |
| March 4 | 1812 pcs | 279 |
| March 5 | 2037 pcs | 225 pcs |
| March 6 | 2203 pcs | 166 pcs |
Small conclusion:
After 11 days of precision strikes by the Russian army, 2203 military facilities in Ukraine were destroyed and paralyzed.
Putin commented: Ukraine's military facilities have basically been destroyed.
The Russian side has not stopped its strike operations because of negotiations, and is still attacking the Ukrainian military forces at a rate of destroying more than 200 Ukrainian military facilities every day.
Now, what does the Ukrainian side rely on to organize a counterattack? Basically gone!
2. Battlefield space
The Russian army has effectively divided the four directions of northern, eastern, southern and central Ukraine.
Its significance lies in:
In space, the Ukrainian army was divided into many small units, and the Ukrainian army's ability to coordinate operations was destroyed;
After the destruction of the ukrainian army's airfields, radar, communications and other core facilities, the Ukrainian army's combat capabilities were basically destroyed.
Modern warfare is not millet plus rifle, but informationized, super-visual, non-contact warfare, radar, command system is the core.
After the destruction of the modern information command system, the Ukrainian army's ability to support each other, coordinate operations, and information guidance has disappeared, and the ability to organize a joint counterattack has also disappeared.
This is the current state of affairs.
At this point in the war, victory or defeat was decided.
3. Strategy
In the face of russian blitzkrieg, the Ukrainian side should have had two extremely important wisdoms to learn from.
First, the Stalin model, in the face of German blitzkrieg, Stalin's strategy is of great reference value.
Second, the Mao Zedong model, in the face of Japanese aggression, Mao Zedong retreated to the countryside, exchanged space for time, and won a protracted war.
Behind Mao Zedong's protracted war was supported by countless policies, tactics, reforms, and organizations.
However, the Ukrainian side, giving up learning the best historical experience, is superstitious about the United States and only believes that the United States and the West will save Ukraine.
Now, what is the point of Zelenskiy now hiding in an underground bunker and shouting "protracted war" alone? He regarded war as an act.
I've seen countless bad plays, but I've never seen Zelenskiy's bad play.
4. Leaders
Commanding ability is the core element of victory or defeat in war.
Putin: Battle-hardened, determined, intelligent and courageous, proficient in intelligence and military, is the most feared opponent in the world today.
Zelenskiy: Courageous, unschemic, not political, not military.
5. Leadership
Russian Government:
With Putin as the core, it is highly centralized and unprecedentedly united. Putin's members of the national security team, foreign ministers, defense ministers, finance ministers and others are all world-class masters who have experienced hundreds of battles.
Government of Ukraine:
It is said that more than half of the senior ukrainian government officials are foreigners and corruption is rife. If they had really thought about Ukraine's national interests, they would not be in today's predicament. Zelenskiy has no qualified national security team, no talented people, and no strong political party support.
6. Army
Russian Army: It is a highly unified national army, with extremely strict organization, command and action, and strong combat effectiveness and cohesion.
Ukrainian Army: It is said that it is divided into three parts: the national army, the oligarch army, and the Azov battalion (Nazi organization), each independent and not coordinated.
7. Command
Putin: It has absolute authority over the Command of the Russian Army, and its command speed and quality are world-class.
Zelenskiy: There is a lack of effective command over the Ukrainian government forces, let alone the oligarchies and Azov armies. Coupled with Zelenskiy's own lack of military experience. How is it possible for Ukraine's so scattered chain of command to confront Putin?
8. Information
Modern warfare is informationized warfare.
Some people say: The United States has provided Detailed Information Support to Ukraine and knows every move of the Russian army very well. The conclusion is that the Russian army will be defeated.
The author believes that the United States and the West will secretly provide a lot of real-time intelligence to the Ukrainian side, including but not limited to: satellite surveillance, airborne early warning aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicle reconnaissance, communication monitoring, network surveillance, human intelligence, etc.
However, the author does not agree with the judgment that "therefore, the Russian army will be defeated". Because the person who made the judgment did not understand the military information system. In fact, no matter how good information is, it must rely on the strict four military organization systems in order to form an effective military strike force, that is, the information chain, the chain of command, the chain of strikes, and the chain of logistics.
For example, intelligence gathering - intelligence transmission - intelligence reception (radar, network communication facilities, etc.) - intelligence analysis - command - firepower strike force - means of attack (missiles, bombers, helicopters, ground artillery).
But now the question is:
The Russian army destroyed 2203 core facilities of the Ukrainian army in 11 days, and the Ukrainian intelligence reception system and command system were basically destroyed.
Is there still a command system of the Ukrainian army?
After the Ukrainian army was divided, who commanded whom?
The Arsenal of the Ukrainian Army has been destroyed in large quantities, what kind of firepower can be used to strike?
The author does not doubt that the United States and the West have a strong reconnaissance capability in the Russian military. But why didn't the Ukrainian army turn the tide of battle?
The reason is that Putin has long destroyed the four systems of the Ukrainian army: the information chain, the chain of command, the chain of attack, and the chain of logistics.
The war reached this point, even if Sun Tzu himself jumped out of the coffin, being the commander of the Ukrainian army could not save the Ukrainian side from defeat!
9. Combat strength
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, although the Russian army did not fight a big war, it has carried out small and medium-sized wars many times, such as the Georgian War and the Syrian War, and has continuously carried out various military exercises.
The reluctance of the United States and Europe to help Ukraine proves on the one hand that the Russian army is strong, and on the other hand, it also proves that the Ukrainian army is too weak and "cannot afford to support it."
The strength of the two sides is very different.
10. Logistics
War is fought logistically. The soldiers and horses did not move, and the grain and grass went first.
Russian logistics: At the individual tactical level, there is a disconnect. But at the strategic level, there will be no problem.
Ukrainian logistics: As of now, the Ukrainian side mainly relies on existing stocks, which seems to be no big problem. But then, there will be a serious crisis in the logistics of the Ukrainian army. cause:
First, the Russian army blocked the transportation of the Ukrainian army at the sea, land and air levels.
Second, the Russian side implemented the "empty city plan", and the Ukrainian people fled to foreign countries one after another, and the traffic was cut off and the logistics were cut off. Who sends the logistics? Does the Ukrainian army still have logistical support?
11. Production
War is fought in production.
The United States and the West have imposed sanctions on Russia in all directions, but they have no impact on Russia's domestic production. Russia has a strong wartime production capacity and its traditions, which can provide strong material and logistical support for the Russian army.
Ukrainian production, as mentioned earlier, the Russian army in the second phase of the strike, has strongly shaken the Ukrainian people's psychology, after entering the third stage, Putin's "empty city plan" once again stimulated the people to flee. It can be speculated that The domestic economy of Ukraine has been completely paralyzed.
Economically paralyzed, paralyzed by transportation, paralyzed by logistics, does the Ukrainian army still have combat capabilities?
12. City
Big cities are the heart of the modern country.
The Russian side opened up "humanitarian channels" to major ukrainian cities, and the Ukrainian side immediately agreed! It can be seen that the Ukrainian government completely lacks political wisdom. The Russian side's plan of "drawing salaries from the bottom of the cauldron" to deal a serious blow to Ukraine is:
(1) Citizens run out
(2) Funds escape
(3) Economic paralysis
(4) Financial paralysis
(5) Logistics paralysis
(6) Urban paralysis
(7) Nationwide paralysis
(8) The whole army is paralyzed
Why are you hiding in the basement?
People are gone, hiding in the underground bunker to command whom?
Logistics are paralyzed, who else provides logistics for the Ukrainian army?
Russia divides the entire territory of Ukraine = the whole country of Ukraine is paralyzed by traffic = logistics is paralyzed = economically is paralyzed = the combat effectiveness is paralyzed
How long can Zelenskiy hide in underground bunkers?
Zelenskiy's "protracted battle" is exactly the same as Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi, which is "protracted hiding."
13. Financial resources
War is fought with financial resources.
Some people have proposed that Russia's 200,000 troops are soaking in Ukraine and consume a lot of money every day. It is asserted from this that as long as Ukraine drags the Russian army, Russia's finances will be bankrupt and the Russian army will be defeated.
This is said to be Miao also. The person forgot two things:
First, the Ukrainian economy is now completely paralyzed, and The Ukrainian finances are now bankrupt.
Second, the Russian army's operation in Ukraine does cost a huge amount of financial expenditure every day.
But we must be clear about the structure of the Russian economy:
Energy output accounts for 1/3 of Russia's GDP;
45% of Russia's fiscal revenue depends on the energy industry.
Let's look at oil first: After the Russo-Ukrainian War, world oil prices soared: a year ago, world oil was $61 a barrel, but on March 3, 2022, WTI crude oil prices soared to $116 per barrel, a 200% increase. Crude oil prices are forecast to climb rapidly to $185 a barrel.
If oil prices soar by 200%, how much will Russia's fiscal revenue unexpectedly "surge"?
Looking at natural gas: 40% of Europe's gas must rely on Russia. European natural gas prices from the beginning of the year to now, soared 240%, please ask Russia's fiscal revenue, will unexpectedly "surge" how much?!
Perhaps, some people will also say: Now that the United States and Europe are sanctioning Russia, who buys Russian crude oil?
But if Russia says that the price of energy in Russia is 10% lower than the international market price, who does not rush to buy?
Perhaps, some people will also say: the West has kicked Russia out of SWIFT, how will Russia settle? In this regard, Russia has tens of millions of ways to solve this small problem.
My conclusion: Compared with the huge windfall income brought to Russia by the war, Russia's military expenditure in Ukraine is only a drizzle.
Now that Russia's fiscal revenue is better than before the war, how can Russia's finances go bankrupt?
Subjectively, the United States and the West have thought of various ways to crush Russia, but unexpectedly, Russia has gained unexpected and huge benefits. Europe, on the other hand, is suffering from soaring energy prices and regrets that it should not have been.
There are two old Chinese sayings that are more appropriate:
Man is not as good as heaven;
Hang as high as Haman.
14. Finance
War is fought financially.
The sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia have on the contrary strengthened Russia's financial management at home and strictly prevented the flight of funds.
However, ukraine was Westernized and liberalized, and before Russia and Ukraine could go to war, the Ukrainian financial market was in chaos, with a serious devaluation of the currency and a rapid rise in inflation. The top 100 rich people in the "Forbes Ukraine Rich List" collectively fled with money, and only the remaining 4 rich people were detained due to domestic lawsuits.
A country's funds have escaped, is there still an economy? Can you still fight?
Financial paralysis in Ukraine = massive flight of funds = paralysis of investment = paralysis of production = paralysis of the economy = paralysis of war capability.
15. Politics
War is fought politically.
Some experts believe that Russia's war against Ukraine will intensify the social contradictions in Russia, and that the United States and the West will secretly subvert it, change the Russian regime, and putin's downfall, which will rewrite the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Theoretically, there is such a possibility.
In the current reality, there must be internal traitors at the core level of Russia. Before the start of the war, Biden so firmly and constantly warned the world accurately that Russia was going to start a war against Ukraine; on the third day after the war, Biden boldly "predicted" that the war would soon end.
Behind this series of bold warnings, the only reasonable explanation is that the core of Russia has committed internal traitors.
Therefore, soon we will see that Putin will make major personnel adjustments to the top level of the government.
As for the Russian revolution, or the insurrection, or the color revolution, the risk of such a russian type is low at present.
Historically, in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904, the Russian army was defeated, which led to the outbreak of social revolution in Russia and the eventual overthrow of the Tsarist Dynasty.
But compared with the past and present, the two are completely different:
First, the possibility of a major defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine now is almost non-existent.
Second, during the period of Tsarist Russia, class contradictions in Russia were unprecedentedly fierce; there are indeed anti-war and anti-Putin forces in Russia, but they are not climateted, and class contradictions are not fierce;
Third, during the Tsarist period, the Tsar fainted; now Putin is a brilliant and resourceful leader.
Fourth, during the Tsarist period, the genius revolutionary, Lenin, miraculously launched a revolution and overthrew the Tsarist dynasty. At present, at the bottom of Russian society, there is no genius revolutionary like Lenin.
At present, the possibility of revolutions, coups, and color revolutions in Russia is very low.
On the contrary, the possibility of civil unrest and regime change in Ukraine is extremely high. Perhaps, when Russia was still relatively stable, turmoil broke out in Ukraine first, which changed the situation of the War between Russia and Ukraine.
16. External
The sanctions and opposition of the United States and the West to Russia cannot shake Putin's determination and will in the slightest, and they cannot shake the military strength of the Russian military in the slightest.
However, Ukraine is too fragile, and all areas of politics, economy, diplomacy, and military are heavily dependent on external forces. Now, the United States and the West are unanimous in their "3 noes" position:
Do not send troops to Ukraine;
No war with Russia;
No-fly zones will be set up in Ukrainian airspace.
Ukraine was militarily isolated.
On March 5, Zelenskiy finally cried out in despair: you (the West) have done nothing, only given Ukraine 50 tons of diesel! You (the West) are responsible for the Ukrainians who died in battle!
Conclusion: Russia will win, Ukraine will lose
The difference is only whether Russia won a big, medium or small victory?
1. Big victory: The Ukrainian side fully swallowed 8 or 9 requirements put forward by Russia (compulsory exam questions);
2. Victory: Uzbekistan is divided into two parts:
Independence of Eastern Ukraine from Kiev to Odessa;
Neutrality of Western Ukraine;
Wu lost the outlet of the Black Sea.
3. Small wins:
(1) Ukraine recognizes the independence of the Luhansk and Doneesk republics, and the territory of the two republics has expanded
(2) Ukraine recognized the annexation of Crimea to Russia
(3) De-Nazismization
(4) De-militarization
(5) Neutralization
(6) Pledge never to join NATO
(7) Commitment to denuclearization forever (no research, no production, no ownership)
For Russia, a small victory is a big victory!
Because, small victories = perfect achievement of the goal of the war, other than Putin originally designed the goal.
Peace treaty safeguards
Any war peace treaty must have a whole set of coercive safeguards, otherwise it is a dead letter (at the end of World War II, Chiang Kai-shek did not understand this principle at all and missed out on extremely important power).
The victory of the Russian side must also include the following set of peace treaty safeguards:
1. Legal guarantees: Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine;
2. Political guarantees: change of government in Ukraine;
3. Military support: Ukrainian reorganized army, Russian garrison;
4. Education guarantee: Ukrainian textbook adaptation, anti-Russian education;
5. Public opinion guarantee: revise the criminal law, criminalize Nazi words and deeds, and anti-Russian propaganda.
The world will soon see this.