【Editor's Note】This article is authorized by the author and reproduced from the public account "Uncle Ming Miscellaneous Talk".
1) Yesterday, I received a message that in the form of so-called disclosure of the inside story, someone said that in the context of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, China should "cut off with Russia and make peace with the United States." Starting from common sense, ordinary people who upload such so-called "insider" information on the Internet can be sure that it is 100% false. But the views and emotions reflected in this message are not false. For a long time, there have been some people in China who have some rather biased views on Sino-US relations and Sino-Russian relations. This time, they are simply speaking out their views again under the banner of the so-called "insider" banner. For such rumors, it is not necessary to pay too much attention to themselves, but it is a very important topic for the "how to view the current Sino-US relations and Sino-Russian relations" behind such rumors. It is also very important for the people at home to understand the international situation, to understand and support China's foreign policy, and then to work together to do China's own things well.
2) At this moment, how should we view Sino-US relations and Sino-Russian relations? The first question to be solved is, how should the Russian-Ukrainian conflict be viewed? What is China's official position on this issue?
State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Blinken on March 5, Beijing time, and there is a very clear statement about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and anyone who pays attention to the current situation should read this passage carefully:
Wang Yi said that the development of the situation in Ukraine to this point is something that the Chinese side does not want to see. The Ukrainian issue is complex, not only concerning the basic norms of international relations, but also closely related to the security interests of all parties, focusing on the solution of the current crisis and the long-term stability of the region. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China has always decided its own position and policies according to the merits of the matter itself. China believes that the solution to the Ukrainian crisis still needs to be done in accordance with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations. The first is to respect and safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, and the other is to persist in settling disputes peacefully through dialogue. We hope that the fighting will cease as soon as possible, that the situation on the ground will be eased, that the lives and property of civilians will be effectively guaranteed and that a large-scale humanitarian crisis will be prevented.
Wang Yi pointed out that the Ukraine crisis can only be resolved through dialogue and negotiation in the end. China supports all efforts that contribute to easing the situation and political settlement. China opposes any action that is not conducive to promoting a diplomatic settlement but escalates the situation by adding fuel to the fire. China will continue to speak out for peace and do its utmost for peace. We encourage direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which cannot be smooth sailing, but the international community should continue to cooperate and support until the results and peace are negotiated. We also encourage the United States, NATO, the European Union and Russia to engage in dialogue on an equal footing, face up to the contradictions and problems accumulated over the years, attach importance to the negative impact of NATO's continuous eastward expansion on Russia's security environment, and seek to build a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism in accordance with the principle of indivisibility of security.
China's position is basically to emphasize that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and safeguarded, and to emphasize persuasion and promotion of talks.
3) In view of the various voices in the field of domestic public opinion about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict some time ago, the recent consensus of everyone is that Chinese view the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, whether it should be based on China's national interests or should be based on China's national position. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is thousands of kilometers away from China, and at this time, whether it is choosing to be a "Us powder" or choosing to be a "Russian fan", it is not right. As a Chinese, at any time, we must be "Chinese fans".
4) Judging from the merits of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, nato led by the United States has rebelled, repeatedly expanded eastward, and constantly instigated "color revolutions" around Russia, and even engaged in "regime change" against Putin personally, which is the root cause of the contradictions between Russia and the United States and the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In the case of the escalating situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, the United States refuses to conduct serious and serious negotiations with Russia, but instead repeatedly plays up tensions, and the United States is the initiator of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The people of the country must have a clear understanding of this basic fact. Ignoring the complicated historical context behind the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, blindly following the tone of the United States and saying that "Russia is an aggressor", and even personally attacking Putin, saying that it is good to hear, it is a "stupid worm", and it is a bit "not stupid and bad" to say that it is ugly.
5) Considering the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the context of global geopolitics, we should strive to avoid the United States from "leading the waters of evil to the east." The United States has "four cards" in this regard, which deserves our vigilance. First, the United States has used its own "narrative dominance" to push all the responsibility for starting the war to Russia, and even to China's "ineffective control of Russia" on the responsibility for starting the war. Chinese know that "the bell must also be tied to the ringer." Since the United States is the initiator of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it must face up to Russia's legitimate security concerns as a European power and even a global power, and it must conduct serious and serious negotiations with Russia on the key issues of US-Russian relations and europe's lasting peace and equality. Now, many Americans believe that Russia's national strength is in decline, the economy is deformed and dependent on oil and gas exports, and there is a strong psychological arrogance and disrespect for Russia, and this irrational sentiment is also an important factor affecting the US policy toward Russia. As a big country, if the United States cannot proceed from realism and "have a lot to gain" in its negotiations with Russia, but blindly engage in containment, sanctions, and oppression against Russia, it will definitely provoke a strong backlash from Russia. If the United States determines that Russia is just a "gas station country" or even a "Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons", Russia and Putin will use their strength and determination to make the United States look at Russia again.
6) The United States "misfortune leads to the east", and there is a second card. For a long time, the United States has carried out very extensive and in-depth ideological penetration of allies and global countries. Through the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has successfully provoked the anger of the people of the "Five Eyes Alliance", the European Union, the Group of Seven and other countries against Russia. The United States is using this anger to launch tough sanctions against Russia. Fundamentally, this is still the hegemonic thinking of the United States. In the face of a "post-decline" Russia, the United States does not want to solve the problem completely through negotiation and compromise, but proceeds from the "position of strength" and continues to "take advantage of Russia's illness and ask for Russia's life." In this context, the United States will certainly force China and Chinese enterprises to "take sides" in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and once Chinese and Chinese enterprises continue to carry out normal and pragmatic cooperation with Russia, the United States may accuse Chinese and Chinese enterprises of "having no sense of morality" and "standing with the aggressors.". As for the second card of the United States' "misfortune in the east", we also need to be unmoved. The unilateral sanctions launched by the United States and its allies against Russia lack both a basis in international law and are not conducive to the easing of the current situation, and China has no reason to cooperate with these unilateral sanctions, and these unilateral sanctions cannot be used to punish Russia in the name of harming the interests of China and Chinese enterprises.
7) There is a third card for the United States to "lead the way to the east", that is, to try to take advantage of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict to "wedge" between China and Russia, stir up dissension, and undermine trust and cooperation between China and Russia. From a legal point of view, China and Russia are not "allies", and China cannot be responsible for all of Russia's actions, but as "comprehensive strategic cooperation partners in the new era", China and Russia have similar views on the current international situation, have a common position in opposing hegemonism, and have extensive interests in pragmatic cooperation in various fields. At this moment, if someone hypes the so-called "talking peace with the United States and cutting off with Russia," it is precisely the treacherous plan of the United States to stir up dissension.
8) The United States "caused misfortune to the east", and the fourth card, that is, to take advantage of the shock and impact of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the people of European countries, and then accuse the normal cooperation between China and Russia, triggering the dissatisfaction of the governments and people of EU countries with China, and then affecting China-EU cooperation. Or, to guide the EU to follow the tone of the United States and demand greater responsibility for China in mediating the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
9) With regard to Sino-Russian relations under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, China has repeatedly made clear its position on the merits of the matter. Stressed the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of any country, stressed the need to respect Russia's legitimate security concerns, and emphasized the promotion of peace. This is a more rational, peaceful and balanced approach. These positions of China apply in the context of any international conflict. For the people at home, starting from the perspective of the "strategic triangle" between China, the United States and Russia, basically agree that the United States should not be confused with right and wrong, and take this opportunity to bring Russia down. In the new "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" of the twenty-first century, China and Russia joining hands to oppose hegemony are of positive significance not only to the two countries but also to the world. But Russia has its own cultural traditions, strategic thinking and ways of doing things, and many times it is very different from China. In the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we should insist on persuading peace and promoting talks. As long as China emphasizes in the United Nations, as well as other multilateral and bilateral occasions, "seeking to build a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism in accordance with the principle of security indivisibility", this is a balance and a dissolution of the US "hegemonic narrative", and Russia will also thank it. On the whole, the people at home do not have to worry too much. Putin is a mature leader of a big country, and he must have thought about all the possible consequences when he chose to detonate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at this time. At present, the Russian army on the battlefield is basically advancing at its own pace, and once the humanitarian evacuation window has passed, the Ukrainian army will face new and strong pressure. For the sanctions launched by the United States and Europe and other Western countries, at present, to be honest, it is still a bit "thunderous and rainy." Sanctioning cats or something is completely a "passionate show" and has no substantive significance. Russia's economic lifeline is maintained in oil and gas exports, at present, due to the Federal Reserve's long-term "opening the gate and releasing water", global energy prices continue to rise, the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict has further pushed up oil and gas prices, in the case of the United States and Europe can not carry out comprehensive sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports, Russia's substantive interests have not been significantly damaged, Russia may even benefit from the rise in oil and gas prices in the short term. In short, at least in the short term, Russia has no problem solving problems on the battlefield or surviving the sanctions of the United States and Europe. As long as China maintains normal and pragmatic cooperation with Russia in accordance with its own national interests, it will already be a great support for Russia.
10) At this juncture, the key is to understand how we should handle the U.S.-China relationship. There is no doubt that the United States has identified China as its biggest strategic competitor and has therefore taken a series of actions to contain, suppress, contain, and slander China, which is the fundamental reason for the deterioration of Sino-US relations at present. As the world's sole superpower, the United States has become the biggest external uncertainty facing China's development. For China, it is definitely necessary to do everything possible to do a good job in Sino-US relations, at least not to let Sino-US relations get out of control, and even to make China and the United States face the risk of early showdown.
It is precisely for this reason that China's attitude on the issue of developing Sino-US relations is very clear, that is, it has repeatedly stressed that China and the United States "benefit both sides if they are united, and hurt both by fighting." In Sino-US relations, the United States has now lost its self-confidence due to internal and external difficulties and adopted many irrational policies. What the United States thinks about is not how to make the cake bigger, but no matter what, it cannot let China cut a bigger cake, let alone let China surpass the United States. This is essentially a kind of zero-sum game thinking of the "Cold War" era. For its part, China has always hoped that on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, China-US relations will return to the track of healthy and stable development at an early date.
But U.S.-China relations are very complicated, and within the United States, there is indeed a force that wants to contain China. The Biden administration has adopted an obvious "two-handed strategy" in its relations with China. On the one hand, it is said that it will not contain China and will not seek to change the development path chosen by China; on the other hand, it has exerted a lot of pressure on China by concocting the so-called genocidal super lie in Xinjiang, by "using Taiwan to control China", and by launching various arbitrary sanctions against China.
From China's point of view, it can only be "two hands against two hands" and seek unity through struggle.
Regarding Sino-US relations, I don't have the same view as many people. First, I believe that China is actually adopting a higher level of "Taoguang Yang Obscure" strategy, or "Tao Guang Yang Obscure 2.0". On issues involving sovereignty, security and development interests, China has persisted in and dared to struggle against the United States, and has no ambiguity. However, on other issues, he still showed great restraint, never used his will, and did not overly provoke or provoke the United States. At present, within the United States, cnn host Faried Zakaria has a very clear understanding of the difference between China and Russia. They tend to think that China still wants to compete with the United States and develop itself under the existing international system, but Russia is an obvious destructive factor. This also shows that our "Taoguang Yang Obscure 2.0" strategy has a certain role.
Second, I believe that the current is not the worst moment of Sino-US relations, and we should seize this small "strategic opportunity period" to strive to develop ourselves and accumulate strength and prepare for greater changes that may occur in Sino-US relations in the future.
Many people in China may feel that the current containment, suppression, containment, and slander of China by the United States is already very serious, but if we look at it historically, the United States is far from devoting all its strength to engaging in "mutual damage" against China. Biden has also accepted to some extent, seeing the challenges posed by China's rise as a driving force to spur greater investment in education, infrastructure, innovation and other things within the United States. But there is no doubt that both China and the United States are preparing for the worst. China is trying to solve problems such as card neck and double circulation, and the United States is also trying to solve problems such as chip manufacturing and supply chain "security".
To a certain extent, the correct way to open up Sino-US competition should be to have more "competition" and less "competition." Both sides focus more on the inside, think more about how to solve their own problems, make themselves better, rather than how to think about making each other's life bad.
In the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, China's rationality and restraint may create new opportunities for improvement in Sino-US relations.
But in any case, it is still the same sentence, "throw away the illusion, dare to fight, hold the bottom line, and wait and see what happens."
In the Medium and Long Term, the key factor in determining the outcome of the Sino-US game is the effectiveness of the internal governance of China and the United States. Through the epidemic, the effectiveness of China's governance has been fully demonstrated, and the next step is to continue to focus on internal issues, seek truth from facts, deepen reform, expand opening up, resolve contradictions, and achieve long-term peace and stability. As long as China gets its own business done, the United States is willing to improve its relations with China, which is very good, and even if the United States has another round of tossing after Trump's comeback in 2024, it does not matter. The better China's internal problems are resolved, the more capable it is to withstand the oppression of the United States, and the more capable it will be to pass through this dangerous "Three Gorges of History" and enter a new realm of "the tide is flat on both sides of the strait and the wind is hanging on the same page" in the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation at an early date. Let's wait and see.