My core point is that this round of the cycle is only just beginning to start, and in another 10 days, after the first interest rate hike in M country on March 15, you will find that the market will be more severe.
In 16 years, when our "cyclical group" was very famous, and then that year was the rate hike period, so I said that once the rate hike happened, everyone must have a concept that the rate hike actually represents this horse, which has actually tightened the reins and has run. Therefore, the essential reason why copper prices are rising during each interest rate hike is that the demand side of industrial metals. I will tell you two numbers, the first is the new housing in the M country, since 1962, if you follow the average annual new housing, it is actually necessary to open so many houses every year, but in the past 10 years, the M country has accumulated 5 million fewer units, what is this concept? If a house is assumed to pull GDP of $1 million, 5 million units is $5 trillion, equivalent to 26% of the GDP of country M, so why is the house in country M new york, and then Chicago has risen so much, including Horton real estate, in May 2020 so far, it is definitely the star stock of country M that has risen 8 times. The essence is that the M country has really been in the past 10 years after the whole credit problem in 2008, they sold the house in order to repay the loan, so the whole credit resumed, in fact, quantitative easing did not reach the hands of the poor. After 2008, in fact, low-income people have been excluded, because they have no chips, so in the past 10 years, in fact, the cumulative number of houses in M country has been reduced by 5 million houses, according to the latest production of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of M country, it is said that the number will increase to 12 million sets in 2029, so why do I say that when the world is on the right, everyone has to buy equity, and then when it is left, it is reasonable.
After 2008, the world actually turned to the right, so the rich got the money, the rich did not buy a house, the rich bought stocks, because its population base is small, so its equity assets are getting bigger and bigger. That's why the whole equity assets on Wall Street last year have been pulled too far from that commodity price, so big that it is the highest level in history after 1900, and then the last time this widened gap occurred in 2000 and 1970, before Reagan came to power and inflation, and in 2000 it was before 5 golden flowers, so I said it must be colored, then I said C debuted, and then today I want to tell you that the cycle is just a warm-up. And then after the rate hike period, as soon as the gun sounds, you will feel the charm of the cycle, that is, lying and winning to buy anything.
Then this is the first data, simply put, the world has begun to slowly shift from the right to the left, and then the left words actually start from 2016, we should be able to feel, when the common rich countries have begun to talk, including 16 years when we became famous when the cycle of the day group, the background of the establishment of the whole cycle day group, in June 2021, do you remember the prime minister under the coal mine took a towel, that is, the white towel under the coal mine, in the "Qiushi" report, coal represents the poor, so at that time After the 2015 stock market crash, you have actually experienced a lot of asset-liability ratio increases, and then after the debt-to-equity swap event, you have to start to turn, if you don't turn, the Gini coefficient will be too big. Later, we look at all the other south M countries except Argentina, all the other south M countries are on the left, the voters have voted out, this is a left world, the essence of the left is that the hatred of the rich and the enemy because the pull is too big, so it has to be a lot of money back to the low-income people. Then for the capital expenditure of capital things in the past 10 years to the right, capital expenditure is the release of the supply side, so the price will certainly not rise. Then the price can not rise, that is, the workers of resource countries such as Africa and South America, since they have not enjoyed the benefits they deserve in the past 10 years, it is natural that the vote is now a contradiction in 10 years. Then the next thing to say that South America they want capitalists to raise taxes, so things like january reported a 15% year-on-year decline in texture year-on-year, this thing is a very far-reaching effect, Chile accounts for 29% of the world's total copper production, actually fell 15% month-on-month in January, so the weighted average from the variety to 4 points, which is very frightening. Then this is the first data, I want to tell you, that is, now the whole world, including us now talk about common prosperity, including the current Russian-Ukrainian issue, why everyone is so angry at every turn, all at once, because now it is too big, between the poor and the rich, just like Biden's money this time is for the poor, we in China are talking about common prosperity, there will be a twist. Don't think about it on the supply side, there is no increment, because the capital expenditure has been invested in this aspect for 10 years, and then the demand side is that you have to give these low-income people with a larger population base money to them, so that they can all create new demand, so I say that the left has to buy resources, and the right has to buy equity.
The second number is to talk about marginal changes, that is, new energy, the marginal changes of new energy come from the number of copper I said 1G watt 5000 tons, I have been popularizing science for half a year now, and everyone knows it one after another. So in 2022, for the first time in China's global copper, there are 10 points related to new energy, and I said that the 10 points are very important because of the paradigm we are talking about.
You can recall a thing, lithium began to speculate in 2014, when 400,000 new energy vehicles, the first time lithium had 10 points related to new energy, what is the market for lithium after that? Then 16 years of cobalt, 17 years of nickel, 19 years of silicon, and then 2021 of the magnetic material, the logic is all the same, reflected in the micro market, that is, once it breaks 10%, to 45% of the market share of 4 times the market is the coolest, in one go, and reflected in the capital market, once it is paradigmd, the industry will have more new plates. So once we cycle researchers when there are new stocks, new in the sector, we must pay attention to it, because it represents the industry it is alive. Including like what is rich in 2021, Jilin Carbon Valley, Haiding wind power listing, it has already told everyone a thing, because the sea breeze is alive.
So in the past three years, everyone has bought lithium, and what will everyone buy in the next three years? Everyone is going to buy wires, all metals are wires, so why do I keep saying that metal is lying down next, because metal is inherently the most important carrier of electricity, then once the boundary changes are formed, terrible things come. For example, we had a name called Tianhua Chaojing last year, do you have any impressions? The boss himself is depressed, why did the fund manager work to 80 billion in the last 16 times, what happened? I told the boss that because now it is not according to your output of 25,000 tons in 2021, but according to your output of 178,000 tons in 2025, after the announcement information goes out, everyone will naturally increase the output by 8 times, and the valuation will be from 10 times to 20 times, which is 2×8, which is also 16 times. So it's very scary. In the face of this big market, I said that everyone must be imaginative.
For example, if we take Zijin Mining as an example, Zijin Mining's output in 2025 is estimated to be 1 million to 1.3 million tons, and we will only count it as copper. Gold, lead and zinc, including its lithium what magnetic materials, iron all white, we only count a copper, even if its copper price is now 70,000 yuan a ton, but also continue to set new highs, a ton if you earn 30,000 now to 2025 estimated scale net profit is nearly 40 billion, now less than 300 billion market value. If he is next after the paradigm, everyone takes copper as a growth logic, directly saying that in 2025, for example, copper prices will double, double it will be 150,000 tons, and then a ton will earn ninety thousand, 1.3 million tons, on the scale of 100 billion net profit, you are now more than 200 billion market value, double the PE valuation, this stock to be speculated to burst. So the point of change here is in the capital market reaction, there is a growth in output, there is an increase in valuation, and its most essential factor is that copper has become an energy metal.
Why do I dare say 150,000 tons? To share with you, in fact, the price of copper 15 years ago in history was 88,000, and now it has been 70,000, and that 83,000 gives him 30 points of gross profit, and the average should be 110,000. But now why has it been 70,000? Because everyone can't see the future demand vision, including the direction of our epidemic, then it is too sad now, and after too much sadness, it will be too excited, with 11 as the center, and the next position is 15. In the face of the big market, everyone must have imagination, this time the big market is this time from oil to electricity, and the most important thing in oil to electricity is a metal is the carrier of electricity.
Then if I choose the variety myself, the core is the industrial metal, such as copper, and then the specific time point, after 10 days, it will be very important, because the interest rate hike landed.
I told you in September last year that I said that the buyer and seller are living a good life, because in the past three years, the M country has put 6 trillion US dollars, what is this concept? From 1970 to now, after the upgrade of the entire Bryson in country M, the physical us dollars have also been put 20 trillion, and as a result, an epidemic has been put 6 trillion yuan in three years, and I said that everyone can take the basin to receive money, because the low-interest US dollars are constantly throwing money, but from September onwards, 150 to 30 billion US dollars will be recovered every month. So today I want to tell you a happy thing, it will be over in another 15 days and 10 days, just when the interest rate hike lands, but it is a good cash for the dollar at the table time, so the dollar will have a trend decline. In the first six months of history, the dollar will trend down by 10 points, about 6 months. That's why I said that even this year's gold sector with the least demand, the gold sector with the least demand, will eventually give you a 50% excess return.
So I say that this year why colored lying wins is the reason.
Then another topic is the currency thing, now the M country has put so much money, 30 trillion US dollars of the entire debt, until now is only the base currency, it is not called M2, that is, after the next circulation is called M2.
At that time, in 2003, if I told everyone, I said you want to buy a house in Beijing, you can buy a few sets, you can buy a few sets, you can buy a few, at that time, the economists led by Xie Guozhong were still bearish in 2006, so just like I tell you now, not everyone must pay attention to this wave, now everyone may feel that the epidemic is very unclear, I said that the general trend is getting better and better, and the general trend will definitely be put, the time point may be in 10 days, that is, the catalyst dollar will appear trend down, Then the next economic job growth will be very good this year, and there are 10 points related to new energy in 2022.
Then the specific varieties of my core conclusions, specific varieties, the first is the industrial metal inside the copper, which is my most optimistic. Then individual stocks I think can be bought, with my eyes closed like the lithium market in the past 4 years, so beta is the most important.
If copper can go up to 150,000, buy anything right, I will contribute to everyone one big and one small, a purple gold mining, a Tongling color.
Then there will be no problem on the lithium side before May 1st, because the performance has been released, and now it is indeed profitable. So I Ganfeng Lithium, like Tianqi Lithium, these faucets, and then including Tianhua Chaojing like Ningde, and then Shengxin Lithium Energy I think there is no problem, these big track stocks.
Then we add a new company is Longjing Environmental Protection, Longjing Environmental Protection is the first time Zijin with a little brother, now 9 times the PE valuation, I said the company's target market value of 38.8 billion, the market value is absolutely tripled, the simple logic is the company's valuation of 9 times, now the reasonable valuation of environmental protection, the next become new energy to 30 times, very simple, and the previous Sichuan Energy Power, Tianhua Ultra Net are the same.
Then there will be a rebound in the precious metal side this year, the reason is that the dollar will have a trend decline, individual stocks, such as three gold (Shandong gold, CICC gold, zijin mining), Chifeng gold, Yintai gold can be, then it is my general election, if everyone is to buy one, I focus on promoting Tongling nonferrous, this vote will be very strong.
Remember that I told you about Tongling color at 4 yuan. Although we have pushed for half a year and finally pushed from 3 blocks 5 to 4 blocks, but now it is just starting, our slogan will continue to shout, the core is these.
Question 1: What is the core logic of Longjing environmental protection? I see that in the near future, everyone is speculating in environmental protection stocks, will it enter the non-ferrous industry in the future?
A: Yes, in fact, it has been announced, the announcement has three sentences, first, all of Zijin's environmental protection business is for Longjing Environmental Protection to do. The second is photovoltaic and wind power, in fact, it is also a green mine, talking about energy. The key is the third sentence, to establish a strategic partnership. What specific strategic partnerships. Follow-up announcements are worth noting.
Question 2: What do you think of tin?
A: I think in the sending money, at the current price, tin shares now average 9 times PE valuation, it also has an indium. This thing is definitely going to be the focus of development, because 1T W is used with 10 tons of indium, and indium is definitely going to be fried.
Q3: How much room is left for lithium ore?
A: Tianqi Lithium industry and the like should be fifty or sixty percent, the entire plate type is no problem, because now the valuation is estimated to be about 12 times, 12 to 20 times is fifty or sixty percent space.
Q4: What about gold?
A: Gold I think there is a rebound this year, the core is that you have to seize the next dollar will have a trend decline, its essence is the interest rate hike period, the starting gun sounds, the dollar will go lower.
Q5: How much space is there for aluminum?
A: There is also room for aluminum, but aluminum I do not particularly like to push, aluminum into growth stocks, may take a year or two, not now, so now it is still as a simple cycle stock to speculate, once the cycle stock it is limited in its valuation. I put copper in front of aluminum, and that's why. So it is that you can buy any one, but my suggestion is that you should buy what you can hold, because in the face of this kind of big market, it is not that you can see the right, that is, you can see the right and hold the heavy position, you will not be washed out, this is OK.
If it goes up to 3 times, will we wash it off? Just like in the past 10 years, Ganfeng has risen a full 10 times,
The whole sector has risen 10 times, and whether we have ever earned 10 times is such a core point.
Question 6: What do you think of Chihong Zinc Germanium?
A: It is I told you the conclusion, because the time is almost the same, that is, Chihong zinc germanium closed eyes to buy, this ticket will be very cattle, you go to read his bulletin 2025 production tripled, production tripled, Chihong zinc germanium If we boldly exaggerate the price of zinc 16 years ago, if you calculate its performance, a ton to earn 20,000, 1 million tons is 20 billion scale net profit, now the total market value of 20 billion, 1 times PE valuation.