【The Mystery of the Russo-U.S. Mystery】
Chen Shuying
Independent Scholar at the University of Washington (Seattle), USA
【19 Scholars Comment on the "Russian-Ukrainian Conflict under the Great Power Game" Series No. 19】
Editor's Note
Zhao Quansheng [Overseas Looking at the World] Editor-in-Chief:
"Boundless falling wood, xiao Xiao, the endless Yangtze River rolling in" The world trend is like the water of the Yangtze River, which never stops. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is another "crashing waves on the shore and rolling up a thousand piles of snow" in the long river of history.
Boots landed, and the mystery of months of Russian-Ukrainian conflict was finally solved by Putin's announcement of the formal recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk and the entry of Russian troops into "peacekeeping." The boots have not landed, and the follow-up action of the Situation between Russia and Ukraine under the Great Power Game still needs to be paid close attention to:
· Will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict end here?
· U.S. and Western economic sanctions?
· The EU's (especially Germany and France)'s counterattack? Nord Stream 2?
· Will China's response lie guns?
· What are the links between Asia-Pacific hotspots (Taiwan Strait and Peninsula)?
To this end, we invited 19 scholars from Russia, the United States, Japan, Chinese mainland, Macau and Taiwan to comment. All original articles and editor's notes for this issue are received on or before February 20, 2022.
The scholars and units participating in this quick review
Li Zonglun, Russia, Russia, Russia
Wu Baiyi, European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Zhu Zhiqun, Bucknell University, USA
Li Feng, American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Wang Jianwei University of Macau
Aoyama Tan, Cleveland State University, Ohio, USA
Minghao Zhao Fudan University
Taiyi Sun, Christopher Newport University, USA
Dingli Shen Fudan University
Wu Xinbo Shanghai International Center for Strategic Studies
Howei Zhao Hosei University, Japan
Yufan Hao, University of hong kong Chinese, Shenzhen
Door Mirror China Taihe Think Tank
Deng Zhongjian, National Chengchi University, Taiwan
Zhao Changfeng Central China Normal University
Herman University of Washington (Seattle)
Li Yonghui, Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Yanjun Yin, Kanto Gakuin University, Japan
Shuying Chen, University of Washington (Seattle), USA
A few days ago, US President Joe Biden personally informed allies that Russia would "invade Ukraine" on February 16, but when that day came, everything was quiet. Subsequently, Biden announced that Russia would invade Ukraine on February 19, and the result did not happen. Biden constantly rendered the Russian invasion timeline, Russia constantly clarified that there was no plan to invade, and Ukraine was pushed to the stage as the protagonist of the conflict. What trick is this playing, and what is the calculation behind the United States and Europe?
President of Ukraine Zelenskiy
Evidence was requested for the news of the invasion of Ukraine on the 16th
The United States and Europe are at odds with each other
After the US Biden administration took office, it took a tough attitude toward Russia, and the president of Ukraine, who was the son-in-law of the United States, quickly became the target candidate. Washington has repeatedly encouraged Ukraine to confront Russia, expressed its support for Ukraine's accession to NATO, and strengthened military assistance to the Ukrainian government. For the sake of its own security, Russia does not want NATO to continue to expand eastwards and resolutely does not allow Ukraine to join NATO.
Another purpose of the United States in creating the Ukraine crisis is to stir up Russian-European relations, repair the European alliances that were damaged under Trump, and strengthen their military dependence on the United States. However, what the United States has done has not won the unanimous support of European allies, and most countries, with the exception of some effects and Central and Eastern European countries, do not want to see tensions escalate in Ukraine. Neither France nor Germany wants to be led by the nose by the United States, and war is once again raging in Europe: France has always advocated dialogue with Russia, while Germany has made it clear that it is unwilling to provide lethal weapons assistance to Ukraine.
The birthplace of World War I and World War II is in Europe, and European countries know that once a large-scale conflict breaks out again in eastern Ukraine, it will be difficult for Russia to stay out of the matter, and Europe will have to follow the United States in sanctioning Russia, and the United States can take advantage of the opportunity to reap the benefits of the fisherman. Moreover, once the Ukraine crisis triggers a war, the battlefield will certainly be in Europe, and the US mainland will not be affected, but the risk of the security situation in the European region getting out of control will inevitably increase. Especially in this cold winter, for European countries that are strongly dependent on Russia's energy, if they follow the United States to increase sanctions against Russia, it will inevitably lead to Russia's counter-sanctions, which will increase the instability of governance for all countries.
German Chancellor Schoerz's Social Democratic Party wants to push ahead with the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline project, and the direction of Germany's position will largely determine the size of the EU's ability to pressure Russia, and also determine whether the United States and Europe can maintain the current state of consultation. French President Emmanuel Macron is facing elections and does not want the crisis to spiral out of control, at which point he is an enemy of Russia, affecting his re-election. Because, while Macron actively exchanged views with Putin, he also actively discussed with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, hoping to ease the Ukrainian crisis by means of the "Normandy model" quadripartite talks (France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine).
German Chancellor Scholz (image from the Internet)
Russia demanded that NATO stop expanding, not to deploy strike weapons near russia's borders, to restore military deployments and related infrastructure to the state it was in 1997 when Russia and NATO signed the basic relations document, etc. Germany and France, as well as some "old European countries", have expressed in different forms the idea of hoping that the crisis will not expand. Latvian Defense Minister Pabricks said in an interview with the media that they were considering cooperation and imports of natural gas; Croatian President Milanovic said Russia's security interests should be taken into account in the negotiations. If the United States is still pressing forward, the "European Army" that the German-French-led EU intended to form to deal with the crisis and no longer rely on the United States may be accelerated by 2025.
America's calculations
Although the United States is aware of the Attitude of Germany and France, the midterm elections in the United States are coming; and this year is the year of the Fed's interest rate hike, Biden is in urgent need of global wealth return. So, this is the spring of the Eight Years Since the Outbreak of the Ukraine Crisis in 2014, before and after the Winter Olympics in Beijing, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis suddenly intensified and became the focus of global attention. Biden successfully distracted some Americans from the Winter Olympics, saying that he was a ploy for diplomatic boycott. Regardless of the future development of the situation in Ukraine, the United States is already the biggest beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
Biden's hype of Russia's "invasion timetable" can also create a public opinion trap, the short-term purpose is to divert the pressure of public opinion from his weak governance and the decline of polls, and to ask voters for credit in the midterm elections, precisely because I "Biden" warned him to force potential so-called "aggressors" to retreat. Washington hung the sword of Damocles from the Ukrainian war over the world indefinitely, and it was exposed at every election during biden's presidency.
The medium-term goal is to create panic in Europe, raise the exchange rate of the dollar against other major currencies in the world, cause European capital to flee, force the dollar to flow back to the United States, and save the rapid decline of the US economy due to the epidemic and other factors. Inflation in the U.S. is now 7.5 percent, the highest in the past four decades; the yield on ten-year Treasuries is between 1.5 percent and 2 percent. Usually, who would buy Treasuries at this level of inflation? However, as long as geopolitical tensions persist, demand for U.S. Treasuries will automatically increase. The conclusion: The Ukraine crisis can be reused to save Biden, the U.S. economy and the dollar again and again. Of course, the U.S. military-industrial complex is the profiteer behind it, with Ukraine losing its status as a transit country for Russian gas to the European Union, with economic losses accounting for 10 percent of its GDP, more than $1 billion. But militarily, military spending has increased from 1.6 percent of GDP to 4 percent, and all this money has gone to the pockets of U.S. arms dealers.
Washington's long-term strategy is to defuse the Ukraine crisis, draw Putin into conflict, deplete Russia's national power through proxy wars, and smooth out an old adversary so that it can free up its hands to go all out against the "new enemy" China.
Russia's counterattack
Just as French President Emmanuel Macron brokered Biden and Putin to speak again, Putin signed an order on the evening of February 21 recognizing the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" in eastern Ukraine. Putin's move can be said to be very clever, recognizing the independence of two pro-Russian provinces in eastern Ukraine, which avoided a large-scale military conflict and made the division of Ukraine a reality.
There are many reasons for the Crisis in Ukraine, but the most critical one is that Ukraine's desire to join NATO is considered by Putin to be the biggest threat to Russia's security. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States made a promise that NATO would not expand eastward if German reunification was allowed. However, with north Macedonia officially joining NATO in March 2020, NATO has another 30 member states in Europe, and it can be said that the United States has firmly taken Europe into its own hands. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO's five eastward expansions, Putin is already "retreating or retreating." If Ukraine joins NATO, it means that the United States has "hit" Russia's doorstep, and Russia has no choice but to fight. Moreover, NATO's eastward expansion has created a huge security risk to China's security. Even if Ukraine cannot join NATO now, because Trump once wanted to withdraw from NATO when he was in office, Biden's actions once again proved the value of NATO, fiercely fighting back against the "shallowness" of the Republican Party.
The trade war with China during Trump's presidency has not let the United States take advantage, Biden is busy with party struggles and the domestic epidemic has not ended the trade war with China, in the past few years, the intensification of friction with the United States has allowed China to find out its own home, but also let the outside world see China's strength. The Ukraine crisis eventually brought Russia and China together, with Putin attending the opening ceremony as the sole leader of the great powers at the Beijing Winter Olympics. China and Russia stressed that the relations between the two countries are not capped and whether a military alliance will be formed in the future, but the joint statement of the two countries said that "Sino-Russian relations are endless, and cooperation is no forbidden area", and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that as long as China and Russia work closely together, hegemonism will not win. This result has filled the international community with greater imagination for the future of China and Russia, and has also made it more difficult for the United States to break through its aspirations.
China's position
Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, China established diplomatic-level relations with the independent republics, and Ukraine was one of them. Ukraine's relations with China have changed a lot since the 2014 crisis: China is now Ukraine's largest single trading partner, accounting for 14.4 percent of its imports and 15.3 percent of its exports. Especially in the agricultural sector, China has become Ukraine's largest importer of agricultural products in 2019.
Ukraine is one of the first European countries to support the Belt and Road Initiative, and in 2018 China opened a Belt and Road Trade and Investment Center in Kiev, and Chinese companies have been investing in Ukrainian ports. In July 2021, China's Ministry of Commerce also informed that the Ukrainian government is currently implementing the "large-scale infrastructure" initiative and actively promoting the upgrading of infrastructure in the fields of transportation and power, and will invite Chinese enterprises to participate in the construction.
Commenting on the situation in Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference on February 19, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that on the Ukraine issue, it is time to return to the origin of the new Minsk agreement as soon as possible, "Ukraine should become a bridge of communication between the East and the West, not the front line of confrontation between major powers." "Russia's legitimate security concerns should be respected and taken seriously. For the world to be better, Central Europe must play a role.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China Wang Yi
Make a statement at the Munich Security Conference
(Image from the Internet)
First of all, the nature of the Ukrainian crisis and the nature of the crisis in the Taiwan Strait are fundamentally different, Russia has no will to "reunify" Ukraine, and there is no need for the United States and Russia to engage in a head-on exchange. Taiwan and its affiliated islands are an inalienable part of China's territory, and it is legitimate and legitimate to reunify Taiwan; the Taiwan Strait issue is not only a legacy of China's civil war, but also the result of the growth of the Sino-US game. However, with the support of the United States, the Taiwan independence forces have become increasingly arrogant, and with the increasingly fierce Sino-US game, Beijing's thinking on Taiwan has changed.
The mystery of the Russo-Ukrainian mystery
If the Ukrainian president does not resign, he risks being ousted by a coup. The independence of the two eastern Ukrainian republics is already a fact, no one can change, the political demands between Russia and NATO that need a buffer zone must be faced by Europe, and the provisions of the Ukrainian Constitution that require its accession to NATO will eventually need to be deleted. Even without the signing of the Eu-China agreement, the Sino-German bilateral agreement will soon be launched; if Macron is re-elected, the Sino-French agreement will be on the agenda. The withdrawal of Taiwan will be sanctioned by the United States and other countries, such a threat will not work for China, and the internationalization of the renminbi and the development of the digital yuan will not be interrupted by U.S. sanctions. To resolve the Taiwan Strait issue, the United States must also change its thinking.
There is an old Chinese saying: "Water can carry a boat, but it can also overturn a boat", the United States domestic problems are not solved, relying on external transfer of contradictions is outdated. The future direction of Ukraine depends on the political vision of the United States, and the mystery of the Russian-Ukrainian mystery is that the world has entered the "post-American era" and that the century of Joint Governance of the World by China and the United States has arrived. Coinciding with the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China, the new generation in the United States should learn from the older generation of political elites and must learn to get along with China. (On February 21, 2022)
This article was exclusively first published by the Overseas Look world platform,
The text represents only the author's views