Fan Lord said: Buy early and earn early
Recently, small partners who pay attention to watches may have paid attention to this news: a Philippe Dufour-sized smug watch, hung up a high price of 50 million yuan on foreign trading platforms, and sold in less than a day.
This Grande et Petite Sonnerie watch, by independent watchmaker Philippe Dufour, is equipped with extremely complex size self-sounding functions, and the number is also very rare. The same watch had previously sold for 4 million at auction, and after 9 years, it sold for 50 million, up 12.5 times, which is also staggering.
There may be Fan You who wants to ask, why can this watch be sold so expensive, is it really worth so much money?
The reason why it can sell such a sky-high price is the result of many reasons behind it, including the difficulty and cost of production, the popularity of watchmakers, the history and aura of the brand, the scarcity of watches, and the pursuit of major rich people... Various factors are superimposed, and of course, the possibility of commercial operation is not ruled out.
In addition to this extremely exaggerated situation, in the current secondary market of watches, there are indeed many high-premium models, and it is not a dream to easily break through the public price, and it is common to double 2-5 times.
Therefore, many watch friends joke that "buying a watch is equivalent to buying financial management", in their view, to some extent, watches are not consumer goods, but have become investment products. However, Fan Lord felt that the matter of making money by flipping watches was still relatively metaphysical, and it should not be too serious, but if it was a careful taste of the doorway, it was not completely free of rules to follow.
If you want to say that the wealth management products in the watch, accounting for about 1% of the entire watch market, knowledgeable partners know that the most likely to maintain and appreciate the value of several brands: Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Rolex, can be called the three king kongs of the bezel, Nautilus, Royal Oak and Water Ghost, these years are the existence of hard currency.
However, in addition to the three major King Kongs, brands such as Blancpain, Omega, vacheron Constantin and so on in the past two years have actually become more and more hot in the secondary market, and some watch prices have continued to rise, and even there are doubles and several times.
So why does this phenomenon occur, and what kind of watch has the potential to maintain and appreciate? Recently, Fan Lord and his friend , senior watchmaker Zhao Weiming, chatted about this matter together, and the interested small partner quickly marked it
Limited editions or low production, supply exceeds demand
Scarcity is the key to investment, it is said that things are rare and expensive, in fact, rarity is not an exact number, but a relative concept. When the supply exceeds the demand, everyone can easily buy it, so it will depreciate and become "worthless"; and when the supply is less than the demand, everyone wants to buy but cannot buy, and the price will rise accordingly.
For example, AP, PP and Rolex, it is because the output is extremely limited, the counter often can not see a piece of the current table, ask is to queue for N years to start, if you are the brand's VVVIP, you have a chance to get it.
At this time, everyone is eager to watch, the price of the secondary market is like sitting on a rocket, and the large premium or even doubling is a matter of minutes. After all, in the secondary market, only need to add money to have spot in minutes, and consumers who buy watches will follow suit, which has led to the price of the three king kongs standing firm and evergreen
And in the past two years, because of the impact of the epidemic, the output of foreign watches has been greatly reduced, but the demand for watches in domestic and foreign markets has become more and more hot, and the serious imbalance between supply and demand has also made the overall market of watches rise very strongly.
At this time, if the limited edition of the three-word blessing is added, it is like riding on the East Wind, which can be called a powerful chip with a high premium.
For example, the Aurora Green Fifty-Ton Deep Submersible launched by Blancpain at the end of July this year, the limited number of 100 pieces in China, it is said that it is still "every 4 must jump", in fact, there are only more than 80 pieces. At that time, Fan Lord and almost all the cousins around him participated in the watch grabbing, and the actual feeling was not for a second, and finally it was a price increase to find a friend to buy, and finally had the aurora green that he had in mind.
This watch was originally priced at more than 70,000 yuan, and the price of the secondary market soared to 120,000, and it was definitely lucky to grab it...
Omega launched last year's Snoopy SuperMaster, which is also the most recent popular fried chicken, as a moon landing commemorative watch, this is already the third generation of Snoopy Supermaster launched.
The first two generations of the watch, which had been discontinued, were limited to 5441 and 1970 pieces respectively, and were sold in 2003 and 2015, when the public price was a few tens of thousands. The second generation is particularly hot, once speculated to more than 300,000, and now the second-hand price of these two watches is still maintained at 8-11 million, which is also very strong.
Although this year's edition is unlimited, the output should not be very much, it is quite difficult to buy, and it will be queued for a year and a half when it is first released.
Fan Also waited for half a year before finally going to the store to pick up the table. The physical object is very beautiful, it feels very collectible, and most importantly, under the influence of the epidemic, Omega has also launched such a sincere and cleverly designed classic watch, without deliberate hype and tying restrictions, it is also very touching
However, because the number is indeed very small, this is currently in the secondary market continues to rise, the increase has been as high as nearly 3 times, the small partner who started early really wants to steal the fun.
The colored plate noodles are fragrant, and the green plates are particularly popular
In the past two years, the watch with colored discs has been particularly popular, and PP's Sales told Fan that if you want to buy a Nautilus women's model, the white disk queue will be relatively fast, and the blue disk will wait for more than 2 years. (And men all nautilus, have to queue up for 10 years...) Basically equals no hope)
The popularity of the color plate has a lot to do with the continuous maturity and development of the watch market, the traditional white disk in the past can no longer meet the needs of consumers, has a decent classic model, everyone began to pursue personality, the pursuit of unique eye-catching color watches. And during the epidemic, the colorful colors are also pleasing to the eye and very healing, and almost all watch brands are now producing color plates.
In a number of color plates, the more precious and rare rare colors will be particularly high in the secondary market. Not only because the rare color plate looks cool, but also the process technology behind it, and the low output is also for a reason
For example, the green ghost that is particularly sought after by the Chinese people, the production process has a certain degree of difficulty, the matching of the outer circle green ceramic and the dial, it is difficult to ensure that the color of each batch of products is consistent, so the scrap rate is very high. The color is still rare, and it is not surprising that it is more expensive than other colors such as the black water ghost.
The same is true of the new Oyster Perpetual launched by Rolex last year, a series of colored discs that are bright and blind, and have just been launched to burst the circle of friends. Although it is the most basic watch, the public price was originally 47,000, the secondary market price has gone all the way up, such as yellow, green have risen to sixty or seventy thousand, and some colors are even as high as water ghosts... You know, Oyster Perpetual was a style to be sold at a discount in the secondary market.
One of the hottest is this Tiffany blue plate, which has been hyped to 100,000+, more than doubled. Why, you ask? In fact, in the final analysis, it is still inseparable from scarcity, the dial of this color, in the same level of brand only Rolex is doing, fresh and pure color matching is very eye-catching, but because this blue production is difficult, so the shipment is very small.
As early as the 1970s and 80s, Rolex had this kind of blue plate, because the number is rare, the color has uniqueness, and the current second-hand price is still maintained at more than 80,000. This time it has been relaunched, which has naturally attracted much attention, and the potential for appreciation should not be underestimated. From the launch to the present, it has been a difficult state to find, unless it is a Rolex VVVIP, otherwise you can only buy in the secondary market to add money to start.
Fan Lord's friend Zhao Weiming because he likes it too much, he started at a price of more than 100,000 yuan, in his view, although he bought at a high price, but with an investment mentality, this watch is equivalent to "the deposit worn on the hand". According to the degree of value preservation of Rolex, even if you wear it for a period of time and then shoot it, it is no problem to win inflation ~ Zhao Weiming also dismantled the movement of this watch, he said that after dismantling it, he felt that it was indispensable to buy, and the movement was stable and reliable
The green plate surface is also the hot in the past two years, which may be inseparable from the green ghost, green jindi for many years of paving (washing) pad (brain), I feel that the new watch now as long as it is a little green, it can become a proper explosive booking. For example, Patek Philippe's green disc steel watch 5711 was auctioned at a foreign auction for more than 3 million yuan.
Audemars Piguet has also launched several green plate imperial oaks in one go this year, all of which are difficult to find, and I feel that "every green must fire" is a major law now.
Blancpain Aurora Green is also a good example, last year only in parts of the United States sold a limited aurora green fifty, hungry cry a number of domestic cousins, this year on the hot iron, specifically for the Chinese market limited sale of 100 pieces, or online rush to buy, hanging everyone's appetite.
I have to say that this touch of aurora green is really amazing, the dial has undergone dozens of processes such as nano-plating process, so as to present a unique "Blancpain green", just like a lucky aurora in the deep sea, changing different lights and angles.
And its outer ring is green under strong light, and it is close to black under the dark light, which is wonderful that it will not be very publicity, and it is full of unique careful thinking, so that people who understand the watch can recognize it at a glance, no wonder so many watch fans want to pocket it.
In addition, some special plates also have the potential to preserve value, such as the absence of radiation before Blancpain, the red and yellow labels are highly recognizable, and the barracuda that was very hot before, the second-hand price is still very strong.
The same is true of panda discs, black and white contrasts are sharp, classic and attractive, and many panda disc watches have performed well in the secondary market. This Royal Oak 26331, Boy · A started with a public price of 225,000, and now the market is more than 300,000 and continues to rise, which is also a value-added artifact.
Both appearance and practicality are taken into account, and there are gimmicks that are more divided
For luxury goods, in order to maintain sufficient value, it is not only necessary to have a classic and outdated design, but also to ensure excellent quality and high practicality. Just like Hermès BKC, Chanel CF, LV presbyopia bags, when it comes to this field, the most worthwhile thing to enter is them, which can be used for many years, and can not be wrong in any age occasion.
Do this, consumers will buy it, even if the price increases year by year to distribute, everyone is also scrambling to chase, even if they can't buy new ones, second-hand is willing to invest.
If you think about it carefully, you will find that the watches that can be speculated in the secondary market are basically in line with the mainstream aesthetic (at least not ugly too outrageous, otherwise everyone can see that it is an IQ tax), the appearance is classic, the function is practical, and the quality is recognized by the market.
For example, the sales of the handle of rolex, it is known for its excellent quality, leather durability, the new Perpetual mentioned earlier, not only by the color disc plus points, equipped with the 325 movement has also been upgraded, the power reserve from 40 hours to 70 hours, escape wheels, bearings and other parts and have been improved, precision and wearing comfort are excellent. This is also the first time that Perpetual has produced a 41mm diameter watch, which is naturally highly sought after by the market
Blancpain Aurora Green is also, the Fifty Toms series has a good reputation, thanks to the top movement research and development level, with the "conscience of heaven and earth Per". Classic and good-looking, long power, good waterproofness, belongs to the all-weather watch with high quality in all aspects.
This 42mm watch diameter is also very suitable, in line with the current mainstream trend of large dials, coupled with the concept of aurora green, there is really no other choice on the market that has the same function and color. Not to mention the 100-piece limited quantity, the more difficult to buy the more fragrant the watch, no wonder the people who grabbed it took it out to sell, doubling also a large number of people want to buy.
The same is true of Omega Snoopy, the SpeedMaster series was originally one of Omega's aces, as a NASA-certified space watch, the moon landing is full of feelings, professional quality is excellent. Coupled with the cute and loving Snoopy, no one can resist its charm, and it is reasonable to double the second-hand price.
Sports watch > formal wear watch, Zunda design will undoubtedly be on fire
Over the years, with the change of people's lifestyle, sports watches have become a general trend, can wear more frequency, adapt to a variety of sports and daily occasions, therefore, in recent years, the hot are sports watches, formal watches in the secondary market is much colder.
When it comes to the popularity of sports watches, we have to mention the god-level figures in the watch industry. A very interesting phenomenon is that the two most popular Kongs at present are all self-respecting designs, from the imperial oak to the Nautilus, I feel that with the master's gold finger to open the light, the value is like opening the hanging ~ ~
However, although the Royal Oak and the Nautilus are both sports watches, the style is still different, and the Royal Oak is relatively exquisite and fashionable, so both men's and women's models are very popular in the secondary market. The Nautilus style is more masculine, relatively tough, so the men's style soared, the basic public price of two to three times, the women's model rose not much, almost flat, but also very much preservation.
P.S. Because of the popular sports wind large diameter, so usually more than 37mm this kind of men and women can wear, premium potential is stronger than small diameter. For example, the same is frost gold (rose gold) imperial oak, 33mm is not as high as the 37mm premium, the former is about 280,000, the secondary market is about 400,000, the latter is 320,000, the secondary market is about 600,000, the increase is greater. (Of course, this is also related to the fact that the main force of buying watches is currently male, and men are easy to fry watches)
In addition, there is Vacheron Constantin across the world, which is also a very optimistic watch for Fan Lord and friends. Its prototype Vacheron Constantin 222 has previously been misrepresented as a Zunda design, but the actual designer Jörg Hysek was also influenced by Zunda to a certain extent, and the work is also full of movement and in line with the current aesthetic trend. I always feel that the potential of this watch has not been fully tapped, and I can wait for a suitable time to take off
Steel models are best speculated, and the momentum of gold watches is higher
There are also "unspoken rules" in terms of materials, generally speaking, the metric price of steel watches is relatively low, the premium space is large, and there is more potential for appreciation.
Such as green ghosts, black water ghosts, these needless to say, and steel king 5711, from the beginning of the public price of 180,000, in the secondary market rose to 300,000, 500,000, and then now 800,000, 900,000 or so, feel soaring all the way, can not stop at all.
And Audemars Piguet's very popular steel model 15500, the market price is double the public price, about 300,000 or so.
However, in the past two years, as the domestic watch market has gradually matured, more and more people have pursued precious metal watches. Moreover, the precious metal watch originally produced less than the steel model, so now the price of the gold watch is getting stronger and firmer, and it is a proper value-preserving player.
Sometimes, the potential of gold watches is even more than steel watches, such as this PP blue disk gold watch, the public price of seven or eight hundred thousand, now the market price has risen to 2 million, nearly three times, but the same steel watch may only double or so, which shows the momentum of the gold watch.
Green Jindi has endured for a long time, but also because there are two major trump cards of gold watch + green disk, and the market price has been steadily maintained at five or six hundred thousand, which is double the public price. As mentioned earlier, Audemars Piguet's new green disk 26331 this year is also from the public price of more than half a million to more than 3 million in the secondary market, and the gold watch plus the green disk is still very powerful.
In addition, ceramic materials have a tendency to be hot in the past two years, AP new watches on a variety of ceramics to make a fuss, some men's ceramic watches in the secondary market performance is also good.
Celebrity marketing, high visibility and recognition
Finally, the blessing of the celebrity effect is also important. The most typical example is Paul Newman Ditona, it is precisely because of the wearing of legendary film star Paul Newman, it has jumped from a lonely and nameless, unsold small transparent to the most valuable antique watch, auctioned for a record price of nearly 120 million.
The reason why Rolex can be so successful is also because for a long time, all kinds of soft and hard marketing are too deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, there are N many bridges in Chinese and foreign movies, accumulated over time, the popularity and recognition among the public has been unshakable, and it is regarded by many people as the first good watch that must be owned in life.
Richard Mille's popularity is also inseparable from celebrity goods. The world's kings, rich second generation and Olympic champions have called for it, and its popularity in the elite circles of rich and famous celebrities is self-evident. The positioning of "billionaire admission tickets" and superstar standards is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the degree of value preservation is also quite amazing, and many rich people regard it as an investment, instead of buying a car and buying a yacht.
Fan Lord remembered a while ago, Wang Ziwen wore an AP diamond-encrusted panda plate offshore type 26231, when this watch was on fire, overnight all watch dealers were brushing the same model of Wang Ziwen, many people named this, and they could not buy it in line to add money.
The public price is 247,000, and now the second-hand price is in the range of 300,000-400,000, and there are more than 500,000 hangings, which feels very exaggerated.
Of course, in addition to these, for the public to buy watches suggestions, in addition to the just mentioned Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Rolex and other brands, friend Zhao Weiming said to look for the classic models of big brands, such as buying Cartier blue balloons, high circulation, classic style, good design, but also a good way to preserve value. Princess Kate has always worn this one.
In addition, Fan Lord feels that Blancpain Fifty, Omega's Hippocampus, constellations, etc., are also relatively good circulation in the second-hand market, and they will not regret the choice when buying (of course, the premise is to find a better purchase channel when purchasing).
----I'm the dividing line at the end----
Well, on the topic of watch preservation and appreciation, let's talk about it here today. It should be noted that the above conditions are not absolute, but some laws of the current market, for reference only, the more characteristics that are basically met, the higher the potential of the premium
Of course, sharing these is not to promote everyone to fry the watch, blindly raising the price will cause market chaos, consumers because of the high premium is blindly cut leeks, it is not worth the loss.
More often than not, you should do what you can, buy a like, and be happy yourself. For example, for Fan Lord, buying a watch is a hobby, and the beloved watch he has bought is not willing to sell, so in fact, no matter the price increase or price reduction, it does not matter much.
However, if you can polish your eyes and get started with value-added potential stocks first, it is a great pleasure. I hope that everyone can use the beautiful price to win their favorite watch~