Can the Taiwan authorities understand whether the news of the United States taking advantage of the russian-Ukrainian scuffle to send a former high-ranking official to visit Taiwan is a blessing or a curse for Taiwan?
The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and while the United States is acting as the "rhythm master" of Russia and Ukraine, it has come to the Taiwan Strait to cause trouble.
According to media reports on the island, former senior officials sent by the United States to visit Taiwan arrived in Taiwan on 1 March and were warmly welcomed by the Taiwan authorities. What is the purpose of the United States in choosing to visit Taiwan at such a moment?
Here, I would like to make three main points.
First, the visit of former US officials to Taiwan is not only to express to the Taiwan authorities that they will not abandon Taiwan, but also to save themselves from another crisis of trust that they have lost in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The United States is the initiator of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and he has played a very important role in promoting the development of the situation in Ukraine into war. But just after Russia began to take action against Ukraine, the United States was unusual, publicly stating that it would not send troops to Ukraine, and even Biden once again made it clear in his State of the Union address on March 1 that "the United States will not clash with Russian troops in Ukraine." This has once again made the outside world doubt the credibility of the United States, as the promoter of the war, but after the war, but to watch from the sidelines, but also add fuel to the fire. This cannot be said in any way.
After all, it was less than a month before the last time it "paid the protection fee," and the United States once again lost its credibility in front of the world. In the unlikely event of a war in the Taiwan Strait one day, whether the United States will send troops to protect Taiwan has become a matter of great concern to all officials and the people on the island at present.
It can be said that the move of the United States not to send troops into Ukraine has once again made the Taiwan authorities feel lost. At present, the pressure facing the Tsai Ing-wen authorities mainly comes from three aspects: on the one hand, the mainland's increasingly severe actions against Taiwan; on the other hand, the accusations that different parties on the island have arbitrarily squandered taxpayers' money to seek political benefits for themselves; and the third aspect is the disappointment and doubts of the people on the island about the Tsai Ing-wen authorities.
Under such circumstances, the United States' choice to send former high-ranking officials to visit Taiwan is undoubtedly sending a signal to the Taiwan authorities that Taiwan still exists in the US Asia-Pacific strategy and will not give up. In fact, this is the panic of the Taiwan authorities in disguise. On the other hand, the visit of former senior US officials to Taiwan also conveys a message to other US allies that the United States is trustworthy and will not abandon any of its allies.
Second, the visit of former US officials to Taiwan this time is not only to back Taiwan up, but also to persuade the Taiwan authorities to keep a low profile. In the period from the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine to the occurrence of military conflicts, Western countries have frequently involved China, and the Taiwan Strait has naturally become a topic that cannot be bypassed. When they heard that they had been frequently mentioned by Western countries, the hearts of the Taiwan authorities were naturally full of joy, which led to the extreme expansion of some "Taiwan independence" elements and their desire to "revise the Constitution and seek independence." Moreover, Tsai Ing-wen also took the opportunity to sell the "two-state theory", saying that she "empathizes" with the situation in Ukraine, which has caused the situation in the Taiwan Strait to heat up sharply. Chinese mainland even issued a warning such as "don't say it is unpredictable.".
As far as the United States is concerned, on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, China is now needed to mediate between them, so the United States needs to make corresponding concessions on the Taiwan Strait issue.
This time, a former senior US official visited Taiwan, seemingly to cheer up the Taiwan authorities, and one of the things that may be done is to persuade the Tsai Ing-wen authorities to keep a low profile and not to let go of themselves and make a big fuss because their sense of existence has increased. If this continues, even the United States will not be able to save it.
Third, the United States has sent high-ranking officials to visit Taiwan, and there is also a possibility that it will continue to "collect protection fees." In the Situation between Russia and Ukraine, the US statement caused panic among the Taiwan authorities. At present, while the United States has sent people to express their condolences, it will inevitably talk about the issue of dealing with the mainland's "armed reunification" offensive. What is needed for the United States to help deal with Chinese mainland? Need money. The United States will not say this explicitly, but the Taiwan authorities can also understand it. Next, if nothing else, there may be news of new US arms sales to Taiwan being revealed. As for the specific content of the arms sales, the Taiwan authorities are not interested in it, and there is no need to know. In their view, as long as they pay money to the United States, they can sit back and relax.
Before the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council successively warned the United States and the Taiwan authorities, the PLA made a new move, and on the 28th, the military plane cruised the Taiwan Strait underwent a change, and after the PLA military plane entered Taiwan's "air defense identification zone," a military plane went around from the "southwest airspace" to the "southeast airspace." This has undoubtedly aroused the speculation of the media on the island. This is the mainland's most direct warning to the "United States and Taiwan."
Moreover, the United States must also understand that if they do not heed the dissuasion, blindly play the "Taiwan card," and keep breaking through the mainland's red line, Chinese mainland will be provoked and cannot bear it any longer, and will take "decisive measures" against Taiwan; at that time, the Taiwan Strait will shake the mountains, and if the United States wants to choose to stay out of the matter, I am afraid it will not be so easy; after all, the whole world is watching, and the United States cannot escape if it wants to escape.