Abstract: Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the value of new energy vehicles is rising, but this has little impact on the terminal consumer market
Wen | Zhao Cheng Guo Huaiyi
Edited | Shi Zhiliang
The chip shortage has just eased slightly, and the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has cast a shadow on the automotive industry. However, a series of black swan events have not yet had a serious impact on the terminal consumer market, and "discount promotion" is still the main theme of the automobile market.
"The Audi A4 model in our store has the largest discount margin, and the naked car can directly discount 80,000 yuan." FAW-Volkswagen Audi sales told Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche) that the recent international situation has not affected the terminal price of its products, but will have a slight impact on the pick-up cycle of some imported models.
▲ Source: Zhao Cheng photo
"Audi's station wagon series, Q7 and Q8 are all imported models, and there are very few cars in the current car, and the Q8 only has one in the showroom. In terms of preferential margins, Q7 offers 40,000 yuan, which is similar to the preferential margin compared with before the holiday. The salesperson said.
Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the value of new energy vehicles is rising.
"We have been implementing the new price since January 1 this year, and the newly listed 2022 GAC AION S Plus has a price range of 153,800 yuan to 179,800 yuan after subsidies, which is 7,000 yuan to 14,000 yuan compared with 2021; the price of the 2022 AION Y has been raised by 5,000 yuan to 9,000 yuan; and the AION LX has increased by 4,000 yuan." The sales staff of GAC Aeon told Caijingqiche that because it is directly operated by the manufacturer, the price is uniform nationwide and there is no discount.
In addition, Brands such as Xiaopeng Automobile, Nezha, SAIC Feifan, Extreme Krypton, BYD, and Tesla have also recently completed price increases.
In this regard, some analysts pointed out that the rise in the price of new energy vehicles is mainly due to the superposition of factors such as subsidy decline, rising raw material prices, and rising chip prices, which directly leads to a sharp increase in the cost of new energy vehicles, which is difficult to digest in a short period of time by expanding the scale. Although traditional fuel vehicles also have upward pressure on raw materials, on the whole, they are not as big as new energy vehicles.
The preferential range of traditional fuel vehicle terminals has not decreased, and new energy vehicles have entered a period of general price increase
"The QX60 car has just been listed for one day, so there is no discount in the price level, but when you buy a car, you can enjoy the decoration package and free maintenance services provided by the 4S store." However, the preferential margin of the Q50L and QX50 models is still quite large, with cash drops of 80,000 yuan and 100,000 yuan. A salesman at Dongfeng Infiniti told Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche).
Not far away, in the Changan Ford 4S store, Caijing Automobile (ID: caijingqiche) learned from the sales staff that the Changan Ford Explorer offered 10,000 yuan and the Sharp World discount of 20,000 yuan. "Our store has been selling well since 2020, and the shortage of chips and the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict seem to have no impact on Changan Ford, and there are models on sale in the store."
Compared with Changan Ford, which is well stocked, the sales of GAC Trumpchi are helpless.
"GAC Trumpchi GS4 plus, GM8, Shadow Leopard, GA6 and other models are not in stock, need to be booked in advance, the pick-up cycle is basically about three months, and the preferential margin is small." GAC Trumpchi Sales explained to Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche): "Our products are now in short supply, and the chips cannot keep up for a while, the car is built, but the 'soul' is not installed, which is the main reason for the long pick-up cycle and the small preferential margin." ”
If fuel vehicles can still maintain a certain degree of terminal discounts, then the major car companies have long been unable to calm down in the new energy market.
On December 28, 2021, Zero Run took the lead in announcing the price increase of T03, with the amount of the price increase reaching 8,000 yuan, a range of 13%. Since then, Tesla has taken the lead in relay. On December 31, Tesla announced that the price of the domestic Model rear-wheel drive version increased by 21,000 yuan after subsidies, and the price of the Model 3 rear wheel drive version increased by 10,000 yuan after subsidies.
On January 1, 2022, Nezha, SAIC Feifan, Extreme Kr and Polar Star Completed price increases on the same day. In addition, although NIO has not announced a price increase, according to its announcement, NIO will no longer bear the difference caused by the decline of new energy subsidies for car buyers after January 1, 2022. Therefore, Nio's models have also experienced a disguised price increase.
After the collective price increase on New Year's Day, the price increase of new energy vehicles continued. Car companies including Xiaopeng Automobile, BYD, SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen have announced price increases. At this point, the mainstream domestic new energy vehicle companies have basically entered the "general price increase period".
CaijingQiche (ID: caijingqiche) learned that since February 1, BYD has adjusted the price of some new cars, ranging from 1,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan respectively. Among them, Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i, Han series, Tang series all increased prices by 3,000 yuan.
In addition, SAIC Roewe also recently issued an announcement that due to adverse factors such as the global chip shortage and the decline of the national new energy subsidy policy, due to the upward pressure of costs, it decided to raise the official guidance price of many of its new energy models from March 1, 2022 to cope with changes in the new energy market.
However, in the market visit, Caijingqiche found that there are also some new energy models that are bucking the trend.
"The concept is the new energy brand of Guangqi Honda, now there is only a concept VE-1 model, due to the relatively low brand recognition, so the sales are not very good, there are still several existing cars in the store, if you can book, I can apply to the leaders of the store, the highest discount of about 50,000 yuan." A salesman at Guangqi Honda told Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche).
In addition, as the only pure electric vehicle model currently on sale by FAW-Volkswagen Audi, the Audi Q2L e-tron currently has a preferential margin of 40,000 yuan.
Will the price of new energy vehicles still be firm?
Why do new energy vehicle companies collectively announce price increases around New Year's Day in 2022? Subsidies are declining as one reason.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", and the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and new energy vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized by the state. The new policy came into effect on 1 January 2022.
The decline of the subsidy policy has a huge impact on the profitability of new energy vehicle companies, and Fan Yongjun, secretary general of the New Energy Automobile Industry Promotion and Application Promotion Association, has calculated an economic account for car companies. Taking Xiaopeng Automobile as an example, a Xiaopeng P7 with a cruising range of 480 kilometers can sell 120,000 vehicles throughout the year if the average monthly sales volume is 10,000. The bicycle subsidy will be reduced by 5400 yuan, which will reduce the subsidy income by 648 million yuan a year. According to the third quarter of 2021 financial report released by Xiaopeng Motors last year, Xiaopeng Motors' revenue increased by 187.4% to 5.72 billion yuan in the quarter, and the net loss reached 1.59 billion yuan. At the moment when the profitability of new energy automobile companies, especially the new car-making forces, has not yet turned positive, it is not difficult to understand why car companies have increased prices.
In fact, losses are still a problem to be solved by new energy vehicle companies.
Recently, Beiqi Blue Valley (600733, SH) and Xiaokang Co., Ltd. (601127, SH) released 2021 performance forecasts, which are expected to lose 4.8 billion to 5.3 billion yuan, and the latter pre-loss of about 5.035 billion yuan.
In this regard, Beiqi Blue Valley explained that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the supply of raw materials, the company's production and sales did not meet expectations, and the existing gross profit could not cover the inherent costs, and the impact on the company's performance was about 2 billion to 2.5 billion yuan.
Xiaokang co., Ltd. pointed out in the announcement that although the sales volume of New Energy Vehicles in 2021 increased compared with the same period last year, sales were still in the climbing stage, the amortization of fixed assets and intangible assets increased, and the investment in research and development, labor costs, and marketing channel construction expenses continued to increase, resulting in the impact of the business segment on the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of about -1.4 billion yuan.
In addition to subsidies, the shortage of chips and the rapid rise in raw material costs have also forced car companies to increase the price of new cars.
For the rise in raw material costs, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that the price of lithium has risen too fast, and he told Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche): "As an important raw material for power batteries, the price of lithium carbonate in January 2021 is about 50,000 yuan / ton, and it has been almost 400,000 / ton in January this year, a year's time has risen nearly eight times, and it is difficult for new energy vehicle companies to earn money." ”
According to the report of PwC's consulting team Sliot, power batteries account for nearly 45% of the total cost of new energy vehicles. Under such circumstances, the new energy market has not only seen a wave of price increases, but some car companies have even begun to stop accepting new orders.
▲ Draft: Guo Huaiyi
On February 23, Great Wall Euler said that it has begun to stop accepting new orders for black cat and white cat models, and the orders that have been received will continue to be produced. In explaining why the new orders were stopped, Euler brand CEO Dong Yudong told Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche) that the price of raw materials continued to rise, coupled with the new energy vehicle subsidy policy fell by 30%, which made the black cat and white cat lose 10,000 yuan for each car sold.
"We have spread the cost to the extreme, even if we include the national subsidies for new energy vehicles, coupled with the current upward trend in raw material prices, by 2023, Euler black cats and white cats will lose nearly 17,000 yuan per car sold." Dong Yudong said.
So, will the price increase of new energy vehicles spread to the fuel vehicle market? In this regard, the relevant person in charge of a joint venture car company told Caijingqiche (ID: caijingqiche): "Perhaps major companies are studying this issue, but from our point of view, at least there is no plan to increase the guidance price, or try to digest these cost pressures internally." ”
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, has publicly stated that in the short term, the sharp rise in the cost of purchase and use will definitely hinder the momentum of the rise of new energy vehicles, but it will not stop, and new energy vehicles will continue the trend of rapid growth.
He expects that this year, the mainland will sell about 5 million new energy vehicles, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20%.
In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association of Automobiles, the price increase tide will not spread to the fuel vehicle market, he said to the financial car (ID: caijingqiche): "The demand for fuel vehicles is still relatively insufficient, so it is unlikely to increase prices, because after so many years of development, from the total sales of fuel vehicles is basically stable or declining." In contrast, the demand for new energy is very strong, which can also be seen from last year's sales. ”
At the same time, he pointed out that whether the price of subsidized declining models will increase depends on the relationship between market supply and demand - if the new energy vehicle market still continues a strong trend, some car companies will increase prices, but if the demand is relatively weak, it may be traded at a discount.
Compared with the China Automobile Association, the forecast of the Association is more aggressive, and the normal scale of the new energy vehicle market in 2022 is about 5.2 million units, with a slight increase in superposition, and the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 6 million.