Author: Liu Jun (Vice President of China Society of International Relations/ Executive Director, Center for Russian Studies, East China Normal University)
Recently, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has aroused global concern. Russia and Ukraine belong to the same Slavic nation, and there are a series of deep-seated motives behind why they are fighting each other.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a concentrated embodiment of the development and deterioration of contradictions in Russian-Ukrainian bilateral relations since the 2014 Ukraine crisis. The 2014 Ukraine crisis began the deterioration of bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine, especially after the Crimean referendum was incorporated into Russia, which made the relations between the two countries in a state of hostility for a long time, coupled with the separation tendency of the Eastern Region and Russia's support for the two "republics" in Eastern Ukraine, deepening the situation of military confrontation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, which is the prelude and rehearsal for the outbreak of today's Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The core of the contradiction between Russia and Ukraine lies in: First, the issue of Ukraine's status as a NATO member. Second, the territorial dispute in Crimea and the independence of the Eastern region. Third, there is the issue of Russia's security claims. Ukraine has been seeking to join NATO since the time of the second president, Kuchma, and at present, joining NATO has been written into the Ukrainian Constitution, and Ukraine believes that only by joining NATO can it guarantee national sovereignty and prevent the threat of Russia. Ukraine's active demand to join NATO has been strongly opposed by Russia, and the game of eastward expansion and anti-eastward expansion between the two sides has become the focus of contradictions. For Russia, Ukraine, as a country of great geostrategic significance in the Soviet Union, joining NATO will be a direct security threat to Russia. In the face of NATO's continuous eastward expansion after the Cold War, Russia hopes to hold enough strategic buffer zone on its western border, so Russia will not agree to Ukraine's accession to NATO under any circumstances. In addition, the Crimean issue has always been a major problem between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine has never given up its territorial claims to Crimea, and has also strongly opposed the independence of the two "republics" in Eastern Ukraine, and Russia is worried that after Ukraine joins NATO, it will use NATO's collective defense forces to try to reclaim Crimea and increase the intensity of the offensive against the Eastern Region, so it preemptively takes the initiative to first recognize the independence of the two "republics" in Eastern Ukraine, and then implement special military operations to force Ukraine to force a surrender by war and promote peace with war. So as to achieve their own strategic goals.
The United States and NATO should shoulder an unshirkable responsibility in the process of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which is also the inevitable result of the long-term squeeze of Russia's security space by the United States and NATO. From an external point of view, the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is also the result of the United States and NATO's long-term implementation of cutting Russia and weak Russia, reflecting the long-term historical grievances between Russia and the United States and NATO. In the three decades since the end of the Cold War, except for a brief honeymoon period, Russian-American relations have basically developed against the background of constant confrontation. After the Ukraine crisis, Russian-US relations are moving towards a spiraling state of hostility, with political slander, diplomatic expulsion, economic sanctions, military confrontation, sanctions and counter-sanctions, containment and counter-containment, deterrence and counter-deterrence between the two sides being the norm in the development of Russian-US relations. Under the framework of Great Power Competition and Confrontation between Russia and the United States, Ukraine is a pawn of the United States and the West against Russia, and a large amount of military and economic assistance, including offensive weapons, has entered Ukraine from the United States and NATO. NATO follows the US policy of cutting Russia and weakening Russia, conducting military deterrence and front-line confrontation against Russia, which greatly threatens Russia's security interests. Overall, the negative role of the United States and NATO in the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is reflected in: First, stimulating Russia's sensitive security nerves. Second, support Ukraine against Russia. Thirdly, it artificially promotes the escalation of tensions and indirectly promotes the outbreak of conflict. Russia is a country that is particularly sensitive to security issues, and historically, its location in the Great Plains of Eastern Europe has allowed both Eastern nomads and Western colonists to drive straight in, and since Peter the Great has begun to pursue access to the sea, expand its territory, and create a vast space in Russia. However, being in this vast space breeds insecurity, which in turn drives Russia to find a larger space, so that Russian insecurity is innate. After the end of the Cold War, Russia generally believed that the West had a commitment not to expand NATO to the east, however, NATO carried out five consecutive rounds of expansion, 11 Central and Eastern European and former Soviet countries have joined NATO, and military forward deployments have been constantly approaching Russia, which has greatly stimulated Russia's nervous nerves. Since Biden came to power, he has re-integrated the transatlantic alliance, countered Russia through NATO collectives, and conducted forward confrontation through a series of military exercises, and the threat and shadow of war have always existed. In addition, the United States and NATO also take advantage of Ukraine's eagerness to join NATO to support Ukraine against Russia, before the outbreak of war, a large number of military equipment, offensive weapons into Ukraine, but also directly deploy military forces in the territory of NATO member states in eastern Europe, but also deliberately create war rumors, artificially increase tensions, indirectly promote the outbreak of war.
The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not only have a profound impact on the European security structure and Eurasian geopolitics, but will also reshape the global geopolitical pattern to a certain extent. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will bring about fundamental changes in the pattern and structure of European security, and make the geopolitics of the Eurasian region move towards the return of the Cold War. After the end of the Cold War, a new question in the European security structure based on the united States' control of European security affairs is how to ensure Russia's security demands. The common European homeland advocated from the late Soviet Union, Europe from the Atlantic Ocean to the Urals, is obviously only a utopian illusion, Russia is not only impossible to integrate into the original European security system, but gradually excluded, that is, in Russia's view, Europe's security is divided, the security of the United States and NATO is based on Russia's insecurity, and Russia's security concerns have not been taken seriously for a long time. Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the general outbreak of the security contradictions between Russia, the United States and NATO to a certain extent, marking the return of Eurasian geopolitics to the Cold War. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will also have a profound impact on global geopolitics, in which The most essential changes in Russian-US relations since the end of the Cold War will occur, the original dialogue mechanism between Russia and the United States will be stopped, and the unprecedented sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, including kicking Russia out of the Global Banking And Financial Telecommunication Association (SWIFT) and personal sanctions on President Putin, will make Russian-American relations fall into a state of mutual hostility for a long time. Russia's confrontation with the United States and the West will greatly affect the political ecology of the original peace and development of international politics, and the development of world politics and economy will enter a new era.
Source: China Social Science Network