The author | Cat brother
The source | Big Cat Finance
When Russia and Ukraine go to war, the most difficult thing is the Ukrainian people.
The rich have run away, they can't run, they lie flat and confess their lives, the Ukrainians abroad scratch their hearts, and people may be gone at home.
Former Ukrainian star Shevchenko, nicknamed "Nuclear Warhead", said that "everyone must unite and we will win".
Manchester City's Ukrainian star Zinchenko called out directly to Putin, "I want you to die in the most painful way." ”
The motherland was attacked, the mood of the Ukrainians can be understood, but if there is no strong intervention of the United States and Europe, Ukraine is still a bit difficult, joining NATO was written into the constitution several years ago, but unfortunately shaving the head and picking a hot head, people still do not agree.
Russia really uses force, the United States and Europe lightly move their mouths, and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy can also see clearly, saying that "the West has completely abandoned Ukraine", although it has given a lot of weapons, but it is far from the strength of Ukraine's hopes.
In the 30 years of independence, Ukraine has been facing a difficult problem, that is, how to get rid of the fear of being dominated by Russia, but unfortunately it has never succeeded.
Before this fight, the two sides had been fighting in another battlefield for 15 years, and as a result Ukraine was caught in a terrible vicious circle.
In 1991, Ukraine was second only to Russia, the second oldest for many years, what will happen more than 30 years later?
Here's how the economic growth of the 15 member states of the former Soviet Union went from 1991 to 2020:
Countries with good development have increased by 13 times in 30 years, and Ukraine ranks last, only doubling, and the average growth rate is more than 1 point per year, and the turtle speed is undoubted. Referring to China, it has increased by 37 times in the same period.
Looking at gdp per capita, Ukraine ranks fourth from the bottom, only stronger than a few "Stans" in Central Asia, but the natural endowments of those countries are too poor, in contrast, the Ukrainian people originally hoped to become a developed country, but they turned out to be one of the poorest countries in Europe, and the gap is very large.
Why is this the case? This has a lot to do with Russia's stick policy, what is going on?
Before 1991, the Ukrainian national sentiment was high, and their basic view was that "Ukraine is nurturing the whole Soviet Union".
There is a reason for this, Ukraine is a big granary, the great famine of the 30s, Ukraine contributed 40% of the grain, but because of the collective farms, they did not have much grain left, the result was starvation to death of more than 100,000 people, the capital Kiev alone starved to death 80,000 people, in those years the Ukrainians were very dissatisfied with the former Soviet Union, riots one after another.
After that, Ukraine's steel and grain have been continuously supplied to the whole country, but the former Soviet Union has been frantically engaged in heavy industry and military industry, the people's life is very poor, in 1986 there was a Chernobyl incident, this place is in Ukraine, the people are directly victimized, many Ukrainians are even more dissatisfied.
They looked at their own bottoms and found that the bottom was very thick - the GDP was second only to Russia, three times that of Kazakhstan, which ranked third, so why should they keep bleeding from other member countries?
At that time, Ukraine ignored many of Gorbachev's decrees, and in 1991, it simply took the lead with Russia and Belarus, and everyone became independent.
But after independence, good days did not come.
The first president, Kravchuk, turned his policy westward, basically abolished the nuclear capabilities in his hands, and could not engage in economic development, imitating Russia's shock therapy, and almost putting the country into shock.
The voucher issued by Ukraine – intended to be used as a temporary currency before the use of the new currency hryvnia – was worth the ruble in 1991, and three years later it depreciated to less than 1/20th of the ruble, and more than 100,000 vouchers were worth 1 US dollar, and the people were looted round after round.
After more than ten years of operation, the good days have not come, the economic reform has failed, the upper echelons are super corrupt, and the journalists who dare to expose corruption have been killed, in short, the internal peace has not been peaceful.
In 2005, the new president, Yushchenko, came to power and directly angered Russia, and the stick of the fighting nation began to be waved.
What's going on?
Before 2005, Putin spent $800 million a year to support pro-Russian Yanukovych and wanted to put him on the presidential throne, resulting in a color revolution in Ukraine, and the "American son-in-law" Yushchenko pk yanukovych was successfully elected.
Yushchenko was an oligarch, the president of the bank, the election was very fierce, known as the "most beautiful man in Ukraine", Yushchenko was poisoned, the dioxin content is a thousand times that of ordinary people, almost killed.
His life was saved, but he was disfigured, his face was potholed and dark blue, and it was said that he had performed 24 surgeries to regain some of his charm.
Yushchenko knows who the murderer is, and after coming to power, he has been constantly critical of Russia, has a tough attitude, and clearly wants to bring Ukraine into NATO and the European Union.
Raise the price of natural gas.
In fact, after the disintegration, Russia has been maintaining relations with its fraternal countries through the energy stick.
For example, in those years, the price of natural gas was between 230-265 US dollars per thousand cubic meters, and the price given by Russia to its brother countries was about 6 or 70 US dollars, one-third of the market price.
It was cheaper for Ukraine, $50, $10 cheaper than the cost, and Ukraine's powerful industry also benefited from it.
Russia is willing to give this low price, not only because of brotherhood, but also because the two sides are geopolitically delicate and deeply bound in energy – Ukraine needs 80 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, half of which is bought from Russia, and 80% of the gas that Russia sends to Europe needs to go through Ukrainian pipelines.
Russia sells goods to support the family, Ukraine collects tolls to make money, and everyone makes money together.
But Yushchenko's pro-Western attitude made the Russians angry, they used more gas than Ukraine's, the people's resentment boiled, give Ukraine some color to see if it is certain, how much to rise?
From $50 to $230.
This strength is enough, the Ukrainians assessed - if it really rises to this level, Ukraine's pillar industry steel industry basically does not make money, GDP growth rate shrank by 5%, into the era of negative growth, and then the inflation rate will reach 30%, when the pork has a kilogram of 6 US dollars, and then the price increase is estimated to be on the street again.
Ukraine naturally did not dry, the counter-offer was 78 US dollars, and the toll was doubled.
I have to say that Russia is fierce enough.
Double the toll? Don't talk about it, and then directly cut off the breath...
It's not just Ukraine that's being dried up. It was January 2006, Europe was freezing cold, the heating was gone, 18 European countries were freezing and shivering, and then they angrily scolded Russia, "You promised to give Europe a stable supply of natural gas before, why don't you talk about it?"
Seeing that the goodwill accumulated over the years was damaged, Putin did not bear this pressure, and then a negotiation came to an unexpected result:
Russia sold gas to Russian-Ukrainian energy company for $230, which then sold gas to Ukraine for $95.
Yes, you read that right, this company buys for $230, sells for $95, that's not a loss?
In fact, behind this is Russia's subsidies, Russia does this for face? Not really.
In those years, Ukraine also realized that the energy problem was stuck by Russia, and they opened up the gas channel in Central Asia, weakening Russia's energy share, but once this agreement was signed, Ukraine agreed to buy natural gas from only this one company, and Russia took the opportunity to reintegrate the oil and gas resources of Central Asia and firmly control the upstream in its own hands.
So this conflict Ukraine looks like it has a European low, but still sacrifices a lot of future chips.
This conflict has a great impact on Yushchenko, and he believes that Russia said that it would lose its breath because it lacked NATO protection, so it should join NATO's embrace as soon as possible.
He immediately took action, and on the black sea fleet and the Georgian issue, Yushchenko was dead set on Russia. Russia is also not polite, with annual price increases, $95 in 2006 and $179.5 in 2008. In this way, it is strange that Ukraine's economy can improve.
In 2008, the two sides began to talk about the price after 2009, Russia first offered a price of $250, you don't have to increase the toll, the $2.4 billion you owe us quickly repaid.
A 40% increase in prices a year is a bit of a mess for Ukraine.
There is a reason why Russia is doing this.
That year's financial crisis, oil prices, gas prices fell sharply, 50% of Russia's income depended on it, the income was miserable, the good days were gone, the currency depreciated by 40%, foreign capital went 130 billion US dollars, the largest state-owned enterprise Gazprom Company debt of more than 60 billion US dollars, and then did not collect some funds to go bankrupt.
The easiest way for Russia to survive the crisis is to squeeze natural gas buyers, such as Ukraine and Europe.
Yushchenko counter-offers up to $201.
Putin did not do it, "I sold $450 to Eastern Europe, $420 to Central Europe, and $250 to you is already very cheap."
Both sides are very tough, no one will budge, Russia does not say a word, cut off.
It was another severe winter in January, and the last time it was only a few days out of breath, this time it was directly cut off for three weeks, and Europe was miserable.
Why?
Because that year in Europe was extremely cold weather. Bavaria fell to the lowest recorded level of minus 33.6 degrees Celsius, many parts of Europe had 50 centimeters of snow, Poland froze to death 42 people, Ukraine froze to death 27, even Germany died several times, and the whole of Europe was angry.
Many people take to the streets to demonstrate, burn the Russian flag, and angrily scold Russia, but politicians are extremely angry at Ukraine, they believe that Ukraine is pulling the EU down as a chip, the EU president said, "If Ukraine wants to join the EU, then there should be no more trouble on the issue of gas exports to the EU." ”
Europe pressured the two sides to negotiate, in fact, Russia can not stand, the original economy is confused, a gas outage, more than 2 billion US dollars are gone, the longer it drags on, the greater the loss.
In the end, Russia won, the final price was $236, and in 2010 it was 100% in line with the European price.
Energy prices have risen all the way, making Ukraine's inflation rate high, and Russia has used this hand to make the pro-Western Ukrainian government miserable.
Russia played this hand very skillfully, and after the pro-Russian Yanukovych came to power in 2010, Russia immediately promised to reduce the price of natural gas by 30%. Unfortunately, Yanukovych could not get the country, the people who opposed him demonstrated every day, coupled with the subsequent Crimean referendum and the Donbass War, the Ukrainian crisis broke out, Yanukovych was directly bombed out of power, and had to run to Russia for refuge.
As soon as Russia saw that the signs were wrong, the old way was shot again, raising the price!
The price of gas supply to Ukraine was raised from the original preferential price of $268.5 per thousand cubic meters to $485, a direct increase of 80%.
Is this price acceptable in Ukraine?
Definitely not.
First, wallets are not allowed, in 2014 Ukraine's GDP fell by 50%, even if there is money to use the most expensive natural gas in Europe;
Second, the national sentiment is not allowed, such a large territory in Crimea will vote for Russia, how can ukrainians endure, especially many people in Western Ukraine, rather than freeze to death to shoulder with Russia.
The two sides talked like this, and after all these years, every winter, the European people had to worry about it, and they couldn't figure out how Ukraine would put forward conditions, and they couldn't figure out whether Russia would close the valve.
The Russian-Ukrainian "fighting spirit" has also been upgraded:
Russia demanded that Ukraine quickly pay back the more than $7 billion it owed.
Ukraine said it didn't owe that much money at all, and then imposed more than 20 sanctions on Russia.
The two families have their own words, and no one can convince the other, so let's go to court.
In February 2018, the Stockholm Court of Arbitration ruled that Gazprom should pay US$4.63 billion for not fully performing the contract, and pay US$2.56 billion to the Ukrainian side after offsetting the payment due to the Ukrainian side.
Russia certainly does not accept this result.
Then continue to close the valve from time to time, just say how fierce Russia is, specifically pick ukraine's coldest March outage, Ukraine is frozen, pro-Western Ukrainians are about to curse Russia to death.
What about life and production without gas? Ukraine is also a ruthless person, although it is very poor, but it still bites its teeth to purchase natural gas from Central European countries.
These countries are confused, they use imports from Russia, and now some people actually buy gas from them, the market price is purchased, and they can earn 20 US dollars per thousand cubic meters.
So Poland, Hungary and other countries can earn an extra billions of dollars a year, specializing in middlemen to make differences.
It is conceivable that the cost of Ukraine is high, in 2014, the price of natural gas purchased by Ukraine was double that of Russian natural gas, and the highest in 2018 was five times the price of Russian gas.
Europe's poorest Ukraine uses Europe's most expensive natural gas and spends more than $3 billion a year on it, and Ukraine's GDP in 2018 was only $130 billion, a very high proportion.
With such a toss, the people can suffer and the people's livelihood will be withered. Sugar prices rose 83.5 percent, sunflower oil by 79 percent, eggs and bread by 33 percent and 16 percent, meat by 11 percent, and natural gas by 164.5 percent in 2021.
Therefore, when the two sides started fighting, it was not a momentary anger and blood, and the resentment was very deep.
Disputes are constant, and the parties have put a lot of brains to solve this problem.
Did Ukraine not make an effort?
They wanted to build a new transport system to transport gas from Belarus directly from the Caspian Sea to Europe, but this would require a lot of money, and Ukraine would not be able to do it.
Europe is also very annoyed, Ukraine has always provoked Russia, but also wants to pull Europe into the chariot, Russia also took the opportunity to blackmail, on key issues Europe simply can not be tough.
Russia is also very annoyed, they want to teach Ukraine a harsh lesson, but also want to make a lot of money in Europe, in the past few years of fighting with Ukraine, the United States and Belarus have taken the opportunity to kill, Russia's share has been eroded some, so it is a great threat to Russia's income.
So what is Putin thinking?
Bypass Ukraine and establish the Nord Stream Channel, especially the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Russia's main partner is Germany, and Putin specifically instructed Gazprom to hire former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder as chairman of the Nord Stream pipeline project, which moved forward quickly.
Why is Germany so enthusiastic?
Because 82% of the natural gas they use each year comes from Russia, Nord Stream-2 bypasses Ukraine from the Baltic Seabed and directly transports natural gas to the doorstep of Germany, not only saving 2100 kilometers of pipe money and 61% of gas transmission losses, but also making it easier for middlemen to earn the difference, and easily making natural gas exports 60 billion cubic meters more.
As a result, Europe has a stable supply of energy at a low price, and Russia has a long-term printing machine.
Ukraine is the most unhappy, the toll is gone, the finance is even more difficult, but it is a pity that people are small and have little opposition.
But Russia and Europe were not happy for a few days, Nord Stream 2 was almost finished, the Americans were anxious, calling Schroeder a "political prostitute", and at the same time offering the sanction stick, saying that the assets of the companies involved in Nord Stream 2 would be frozen, and individuals were forbidden to travel to the United States.
This sanction is very strong, the Swiss company responsible for the construction immediately instigated, quickly withdrawn, Germany is hard to carry the United States once, but Nord Stream 2 has not been able to operate so far.
Why is the United States sticking a lever?
In fact, this resentment has been accumulated for a long time.
A few years ago, the United States saw a technological revolution in shale oil, shale gas production increased significantly, and now the United States is the world's largest producer of natural gas.
But the cost of shale gas in the United States is a hard wound, want to export can only be made into liquefied natural gas and then shipped over, they want to increase their voice in Europe through energy, Trump period to become the largest natural gas exporter, and built 26 natural gas receiving stations in the European Union to prepare for money.
But these european countries are increasingly disobedient, although on the surface of the respect, but the execution is very poor, in 2018, the United States threatened to use sweaters as a threat, the EU president also admitted, but in reality? That year, Europe did not buy as much beauty as Nigeria, and it was even more incomparable with Russia.
If Nord Stream 2 is really operational, then the United States has less say.
In recent years, the United States has spent more energy on China, the clamping force on Europe has become worse and worse, Germany and Russia have become more and more tightly tied, and even Italy dares to ignore the warning and sign a big contract with Russia.
If you don't shoot again, it will really turn the sky upside down.
As soon as the United States struck, Ukraine made a fuss, and as a result, Russia directly started fighting, so the next pattern is really difficult to say.
Europe will think more carefully about its energy strategy, the United States will take the opportunity to increase energy exports, and Russia's painstaking energy situation will be frustrated.
A simple example is that after Russia and Ukraine opened fire, Germany, which has had iron relations for more than a decade, said 27 will provide Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 missiles to counter Russia.
This caused a group of Western political journalists to "drop their jaws", and the American media even said that this was a historic change.
The big change has begun, and it depends on how to fight and how to talk about it next.