The Paper's special contributor Sun Taiyi
Since late 2021, the United States has issued war warnings and relevant intelligence information with a very unusual frequency, making public the manner, details and even timing of Russian President Vladimir Putin's planned attack on Ukraine. When the conflict did occur, a number of US media immediately posted that the US intelligence system accurately predicted Russia's offensive plan this time, as if the black history of the United States that was criticized by the world for "inaccurate intelligence" before launching the Iraq War was finally partially whitewashed. Are the US intelligence and warnings really accurate this time? If you knew two months ago that this was going to happen, why did you finally let the Russian side drive straight in and pound Kiev?
On February 18, 2022, local time, Biden, Washington, D.C., made a speech on the situation in Ukraine. Pictures of this article People's Vision
Warning of last resort
The frequent warnings issued by the US side that "war is about to break out" are not of any benefit to the United States itself on the surface. For example, every specific prediction of the "self-directed" event of the US side to create a Russian invasion excuse will lead to a violent reaction in the financial market and the energy market, which makes the United States, which is already plagued by the epidemic, supply chain and inflation, even worse. It is reasonable to say that the Biden administration should silently observe and secretly deploy countermeasures, and when the Russian side takes action, it will suddenly reveal a complete set of countermeasures from the United States that is in the overall interests of the United States. In particular, the Russian side even stressed many times in early 2022 that it would not attack Ukraine "in the next few weeks and months". Why would the Biden administration risk an immediate self-inflicted loss of eight hundred to publicly make high-profile predictions about actions that Russia has not yet carried out?
In fact, the US side is completely forced to do so. It is precisely because the Biden administration is unable to show a set of effective countermeasures after the conflict occurs that it must spend its energy on the information war and public opinion war before the incident, minimize the "sudden" and "shocking impact" of Russia's actions, and even hope that russia will adjust its plans because its actions have been made public.
U.S. President Joe Biden believes that because the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021 is unfavorable, his public opinion support at home has only fallen to a historic low. At that time, Biden made many optimistic speeches during the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, and in the end, the situation was repeatedly worse than he described, and even finally there were suicide bomb attacks that caused american military casualties. Therefore, biden may still not be able to get out of the shadow of Afghanistan when facing the situation in Russia and Ukraine, so he must also be more vigilant about the development of the situation – at least in public.
Having learned his lesson, Biden decided to take it bluntly, because if Russia does attack Ukraine, he can have a step down, after all, he has already issued many warnings and even made the details of the matter public; and if Russia does not attack Ukraine in the end, Biden can also describe it as a major diplomatic victory achieved by his joint allies. So, while repeated warnings are not necessarily good for the U.S. market and even the national interest, they are one of the few politically feasible measures for the Biden administration.
Warnings are disconnected from response
Although the Biden administration has always made the situation very serious in public, it has not prepared well in private. When I spoke privately with some U.S. government officials in Washington since the beginning of this year, many people thought that Putin was bluffing. They believe that the reason why Putin has caused the situation of the army to suppress the situation and be slow to move is so that the United States and the West will make concessions because of the pressure. In particular, put forward by Putin to let the United States and NATO guarantee in writing that Ukraine will never join NATO, the core requirement is not difficult to meet - the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO is already very small, in addition to the fact that the conditions for joining NATO are temporarily not met because of the Dispute between Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine, the United States also fully understands that the possibility of a Russian-Ukrainian conflict is very large, which means that once Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, it may involve the United States in war at any time, so Ukraine must not be allowed to join NATO. The United States and Russia are well aware of this. However, when the Russian side understands such a situation, the US side cannot pull down its face, and it also feels that even if it does not meet Putin's demands, he cannot do anything with the United States and the West. Because of this mentality, The Washington policy community has long despised the situation information provided by the intelligence services, and has always thought that Putin is moving troops to increase diplomatic bargaining chips. Therefore, the US side may not have a detailed plan to deal with it completely.
Although since November 2021, the "Tiger Team" with the participation of leaders of multiple departments of the federal government has conducted two rounds of chessboard deductions to deal with the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Biden administration still focuses on communication, design, and early announcement of sanctions measures, in an attempt to make the cost of Russian military operations extremely high with sanctions transparency, thereby preventing Russia from provoking armed conflict. Therefore, we have also seen the US side continue to disclose to the outside world through various channels multi-level, multi-angle, different severity and scope of sanctions from finance, military, science and technology to individuals. When the Us official statement to the outside world, it also mentioned many times that once Russia takes military action, the corresponding sanctions will be immediately launched. Russia's different escalation of the conflict will also face multiple rounds of tougher sanctions.
However, the Biden administration did not do a good job of deterrence in the early stages of the implementation of sanctions, but gave people the impression that "sanctions are not properly discussed, but are only used to scare people". For example, when Russia declared the independence of the two "republics" in the Eastern Region, Biden merely signed an insignificant executive order prohibiting U.S. entities from carrying out new investment, trade, financing, and other economic activities in the two separate regions of Eastern Ukraine. In fact, the united States entity would otherwise have had little intersection with these two regions. It was not until the next day that more detailed and severe sanctions were delayed. This reaction of the US side is very inconsistent with the previous statement that "as soon as the Russian side moves severe sanctions, they will take effect immediately.". Although the severity of the final sanctions is not much different from the previously claimed, the disconnect between warnings and response methods further shows that even if the US side has the right intelligence, there is no more effective response to ease the situation and solve the problem.
On February 25, 2022, local time, a destroyed house in Kiev, Ukraine.
The price of transparency
The Biden administration's transparency in responding to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis was a last resort, and transparency has potential tactical costs. When the Biden administration listed the details of the sanctions in detail, and even made public the implementation strategy of "taking several steps according to the severity of Russia's behavior", the US side thought it could effectively deter Russia. But Putin is seeing some of the consequences of being excluded from the sanctions list. For example, after several rounds of interaction between the United States and Russia, the Russian side made it clear that the United States could not send troops to have a direct conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Of course, this has become clear since Biden ordered the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan at all costs half a year ago. Biden's political baggage has become public, and Russia has less to worry about.
The biden administration's shift in strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific region has also led Russia to see a period of important strategic opportunities. When the United States is to concentrate on competing with China, it is likely to have no time to take care of Eastern Europe, and even if it has the energy, it may not be willing to invest resources outside the Indo-Pacific, especially the military. Because of such a clear signal from the US side, coupled with the actual withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Putin has no worries.
In addition to sanctions and strategic transparency, transparency in western political cycles has led Putin to believe that he has found a perfect opportunity. Several important bills in biden's more than a year in office have stalled and polls have hit a trough, which has forced Biden and the Democratic Party to focus on the United States in a midterm election year. French President Emmanuel Macron, who faces re-election, is also constrained by internal affairs. Germany has only recently made a top leadership transition and has come at a high cost in completely turning its face with Russia over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. After Brexit, britain's relationship with Europe is still in the process of running, and British Prime Minister Johnson is also caught in the biggest political crisis since he came to power because of the scandal of the party in the epidemic. In addition, high inflation and high oil prices also make Putin believe that any sanctions by the United States and the West will "damage themselves by eight hundred" and worsen the order of their domestic markets, so they will not be easily adopted. In the face of such a situation, Putin believes that he knows the situation very well and feels that it is timely to reshape regional influence and reshuffle the European security order.
There are tactics, no strategies
Since the 21st century, the US leadership has gradually despised Russia. Presidential candidates like McCain and Romney have mentioned that Russia is just a gas station like a country. Many American politicians and elites have also constantly pointed out that the size of The Russian economy is only about the same as Italy to show that it is insignificant and is no longer a player at the same level as the United States. In fact, Russia is not only more economically diverse and resilient than many people think, but the possession of nuclear weapons is itself qualitatively different from That of Italy, not to mention that Russia has a nuclear weapons that is comparable to that of the United States. Because the US side shifted its strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific, it was too impatient to deal with the Russian issue, unwilling to invest resources or make any compromises, and the final result was that there were tactics but no strategy.
The U.S. side can draw up a detailed list of sanctions against Russian financial institutions, include them in the U.S. Treasury Department's list of "Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons" (SDN), cut off Russia's ability to use foreign loans and use dollars to liquidate, can impose a comprehensive embargo on Russia containing U.S. technology products to undermine the supply chain needed for Russia to produce advanced technology, can also impose precision strike sanctions on Putin and his surrounding elite individuals, closely related objects, and even use "financial nuclear bombs" to remove Russia from " The Swift system was removed, but these actions were punitive in nature and could not change the situation.
At present, the US side is naturally ready for the next stage of tactics, if the Russian army captures Ukraine, the US side will organize armed rebel rebellion in Russian-occupied areas and engage in guerrilla warfare. Just as the Soviet Union was mired in Afghanistan, the United States will continue to send weapons and ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces to make it difficult for the Russian army to sleep and eat. Of course, this is still only a punishment for Russia's actions. The new round of strategic stability dialogue that the United States and Russia have so hard to open may be stranded, and the sanctions against Putin and Lavrov may also make the interaction mechanism at the highest level of the United States and Russia fail, and once a larger new crisis emerges, the two sides will be more likely to misjudge and involve more countries and individuals in the conflict.
War is brutal, and every family who loses a loved one in it bears the cost of war. In the current situation, the United States and the West obviously have no ability and political capital to take the initiative to cool down and clean up the mess. And China, which is in the midst of the interaction of the game between all parties, may play an important role. In addition to calling on all parties to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, China can also demonstrate the responsibilities and responsibilities of major countries in the new era by pushing all parties back to the negotiating table and finding a way to solve problems through diplomatic means. At present, it is also an opportunity for China to show the world what a "global community of shared future" really means.
(Taiyi Sun, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Christopher Newport University, USA)
Responsible editor: Zhu Zhengyong Photo editor: Chen Feiyan
Proofreader: Zhang Liangliang