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The war entered its fourth day, and the Battle of Kiev was imminent, but the most severe test for Russia also came.
At least three aspects, or rather, in three battlefields.
The first battlefield, the military battlefield.
Although no one doubts the strength of the Russian army, Ukraine also has more than 200,000 troops, and Ukrainian soldiers still fight on their own.
If the war is scorched, it will be very unfavorable and increasingly unfavorable for the Russian army fighting across borders.
More importantly, the West is also taking action.
More and more NATO troops will be deployed to eastern Europe, such as Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Estonia and other countries, which is also a deterrent for the Russian military, forcing it to concentrate on Ukraine.
Of course, considering Russia's nuclear forces, the United States has made it clear that it will not send troops to Ukraine and will not directly fight Russia.
But what about indirect?
The West also has a way. U.S. arms are being delivered to Ukraine. The Biden administration announced yesterday that it would provide ukraine with an additional $350 million in military aid. France has also promised to send more fuel, arms and even offensive weapons to Ukraine.
The biggest change is still In Germany.
Germany has always refused to provide weapons to Ukraine, after germany sent 5,000 helmets at the strong request of the Ukrainian side, which was ridiculed by the mayor of Kiev: Germany, what will you send next? pillow?
But as the war continues, Germany yesterday decided to supply Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger-class surface-to-air missiles. This was targeted because the Russians were mainly tank attacks, air assists.
The longer the war drags on, the more trouble Russia gets.
After all, war is a money-burning game, which means that Russia's astronomical war spending does not include the possible major casualties. More importantly, in order to consume Russia, NATO will certainly do its best to provide assistance to Ukraine, which will bring more trouble to the subsequent russian offensive.
The second battlefield is the battlefield of international public opinion.
If we say that in the military battlefield, no matter how the Ukrainian army resists, Russia will certainly still have the upper hand; but in the international public opinion battlefield, no matter how the Russian media exerts its strength, Russia is really at a disadvantage.
After all, the current international public opinion is mainly in the hands of the West. The main social platforms are all American capital behind them. At least in the English, French, Spanish and other systems, those who scold Russia are undoubtedly one-sided.
It should be noted that in the past few years, Russia's foreign propaganda has made a major breakthrough, and the active voice of the media such as "Russia Today" has greatly hedged the anti-Russian propaganda of the Western media in the international public opinion field; but with the outbreak of war, the West has continuously put pressure on social platforms and taken measures to draw salaries from these Russian accounts.
How to draw salaries from the bottom of the pot?
Limit your vocalization or even turn you off directly.
For example, YouTube blocked the entry of Russian media in Ukraine, including Russia Today, TASS, and RIA, and froze the traffic share of these Russian media.
Facebook also announced that it would ban Russian state media from advertising and monetizing their platforms.
The battlefield is fictitious, and frankly, both sides of the war, as well as the onlookers in the West, have released a lot of false information. But on Western social platforms, a considerable number of channels and accounts that support Russia have recently been purged.
France also made it clear yesterday that it would introduce measures to counter the propaganda of Russian influencers and media in Europe. Specific measures are unknown, but for Russia it is always an ominous signal.
There is no problem of starvation and beating in Russia now, but the problem of being scolded, as the war continues, will not only not be solved, but will become more serious.
The passivity of the battlefield of international public opinion is, without a doubt, one of Russia's biggest weaknesses.
The third battlefield, the economic and financial battlefield.
This is Russia's biggest weakness, and it is not one of them.
Moreover, after repeated hesitations, the West is likely to use the killer skill, that is, to exclude Russia from the Global Banking and Financial Telecommunication Association (SWIFT) global interbank payment system.
Why is this a killer?
Because in a sense, SWIFT is synonymous with cross-border finance, being excluded from SWIFT means that the country is isolated from international finance, there is no way to carry out normal foreign trade and investment, and only cash can be used for transactions.
In the era of globalization, such a blockade means that the country's economy will suffer a catastrophe.
After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the Russian stock index plunged more than 50% at one point. Note that it is not a single stock, it is a stock index. Not mainly because of the huge war expenditure, but because of the extreme sanctions of the West.
Russia has also warned that cutting off Russia's ties with SWIFT will trigger a full-scale economic war between Russia and the West. But from the current point of view, the situation is getting worse and worse for Russia.
Previously opposed to cut-off, it was mainly Germany. But under pressure from other countries, Germany's attitude has also changed, and it is not excluded that Russian banks will soon be kicked out of SWIFT.
In addition to finance, Russia will also face the toughest economic sanctions ever. At least hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian overseas assets have been frozen by the West; the West cannot let go of the chips and other high-tech products that Russia needs; and the French Navy also took action yesterday to seize a Russian cargo ship in the English Channel...
Of course, Russia also has countermeasures. For example, as I said earlier, even restricting Western civil aviation from flying over Russian airspace would completely disrupt the entire civil aviation market; not to mention that Russia still has the natural gas and oil that Europe needs.
But after all, on the one hand, the Western countries account for more than half of the world's GDP, and on the other hand, Russia, which accounts for only 2%, the disparity in economic power will put Russia under the pressure of Mount Tai.
After the outbreak of the war, Putin met with the business community and also admitted that it is impossible to predict all potential risks, "all of us, including you, to understand the world we live in and in one way or another, to prepare for the restrictions and sanctions that are happening now."
In the next few years, Russia will have to grit its teeth and hold on. If it lasts, Russia will not be able to survive; if it does not survive, it will be a new crisis, or even a bigger crisis.
Three severe tests, finally converged on one question, how long will the war be fought?
For Russia, whether it can end the war as soon as possible, the sooner it ends, the more favorable the result; for Ukraine, whether it can hold on, the longer it lasts, the more chips it will have.
It must be noted that, despite the outbreak of fierce fighting, Russia has repeatedly stated that precision attacks are aimed only at military targets. Therefore, Ukraine is not like the Syrian battlefield, the Iraqi battlefield, the Yemen battlefield, Russia launched an attack, there must be accidental injuries, but there has not been a large-scale indiscriminate bombardment.
Russia should want to take Kiev completely as soon as possible, and it does not want to completely blow up Ukraine. The result of the bombing is not only a moral burden for Russia, but also a huge economic burden.
But if the war drags on, with the continuous import of Western weapons, if the Russian front-line troops can't hold back, it means more fierce street battles, more tragic casualties, more difficult consequences, no matter how beautiful and important the city, will be a ruin.
The situation in Ukraine is at a critical juncture, and yesterday our Chinese ambassador to Ukraine said it particularly well: "The Ukrainian people are very difficult and uncomfortable." This mood changes to any country, the same. We have to understand this mood of theirs, not to stimulate them..."
Alas, peace is too precious, please cherish peace. This world is not peaceful, and forgetting the war will be dangerous!
Of course, Russia, which thinks it has to fight back, is also facing the most severe test. War is easy to start and difficult to end, and if there is only victory on the battlefield, it is definitely not a real victory. Dialectically, the more severe the time, the more likely it is that there will be a turnaround, but it may also be a time when the disaster will break out completely.
Think of Baghdad and Kabul in the last 20 years, think of Stalingrad and Dresden 70 years ago, and sometimes the more you think about it, the more you shudder.
War, murder weapons, saints have to do it. After all, victory in war will never be forever. Over time, countries often defeat themselves by waging and winning the wrong wars.
Source: Cow playing the piano
Author: Cow playing the piano
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