Text/Daily Chemical Brick House
After months of fermentation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated. On February 24, 2022, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech that it was decided to carry out special military operations in the Donbass region.
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis brought about a rise in gold and oil prices.
So far, the price of Brent crude delivered in January has exceeded $100/b on February 24.
International oil prices have soared, largely due to concerns about trade sanctions imposed on russia, the oil exporter, after the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, invaded Ukraine, which could lead to disruptions in global energy supplies.
As we all know, petroleum is the basic raw material of the chemical industry, and the price of oil rises all the way, and eventually transmits to the entire chemical industry chain, followed by the rapid development of the price of cosmetic raw materials.
As a commonly used basic raw material in the cosmetics industry, it is understood that at present, the prices of ethylene glycol and propylene glycol have been raised to 5258.33 yuan and 17566.67 yuan respectively.
In addition, in the case of rising crude oil futures prices, the price of chemical products widely used in cosmetic packaging materials such as PP (polypropylene) and PE (polyethylene) will rise accordingly.
In fact, since the epidemic, the price of cosmetic raw materials has increased many times, and the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is only a catalyst and one of the factors that promote the price increase of cosmetic raw materials.
In recent years, affected by the international epidemic, customs import control has been strict, the purchase cycle has been extended, and the price of raw materials has risen. In addition, affected by the price of raw materials for cosmetics themselves and the impact of "power curtailment" in many provinces in 2021, cosmetic raw materials have faced price increases many times, coupled with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, cosmetic raw materials will once again usher in a price increase boom.
Under the influence of the double price increase factors of cosmetic raw materials and cosmetic packaging materials, there is no doubt that the cost of cosmetics will increase, and for small enterprises that do not have competitive advantages, they will meet the new crisis of the industry and face a decline in profitability and losses.
On the contrary, for high-end cosmetics brands, brands will cope with the impact of uncertainty and costs through measures such as price increases.
At present, people like Estée Lauder, Aquamarine Mystery, Clinique, etc. also said that they will increase prices in early 2022, of which star products have increased by more than 100 yuan.
In addition, from the public information on the Internet, it is understood that since February 24, logistics shunting has begun to be in the phenomenon that the price increase cannot be transferred.
In the face of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, in the current situation, if the Russian-Ukrainian crisis cannot be alleviated in the short term, it is bound to have an impact on the import of cosmetic raw materials.
At present, the main production areas of domestic imported cosmetic raw materials are mainly the United States and Western Europe.
On the other hand, although the current situation in Russia and Ukraine has a limited impact on domestic export enterprises and local enterprises, if the situation deteriorates or continues for a long time, it is expected that there will be problems such as logistics and trade obstruction.
From the information currently understood, in terms of shipping, port security is one of the factors directly affected. Fuel is one of the biggest costs for container routes, and with the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, shipping will also face a high-risk and high-freight situation.
As for whether the China-Europe express train will be affected, at present, there is no impact, but if the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorates, it may be temporarily affected in the short term in the future, but in the long run, the war will have little impact on the China-Europe train.
In addition, for domestic cosmetics with overseas business, the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has undoubtedly brought a new round of challenges to the brand.
2021, known as the first year of cosmetics "going to sea", in recent years, with the rise of mainland domestic products, more and more excellent domestic brands will focus on overseas markets, of which Ukraine is also one of the choices of many brands "going to sea".
It is understood that a series of excellent domestic brands such as Meikang Fandai and Kating are including Russia and Ukraine.
Taking Kating as an example, in 2021, Russia accounted for 34.97% of Kating's annual overseas sales, and Ukraine accounted for 5.51%; but due to the impact of the War between Russia and Ukraine, many brands have suspended shipments to two countries.
Moreover, according to the customs department, the follow-up situation caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is complex and changeable, which may lead to an increase in the clearance and inspection rate of ports in relevant areas, a decrease in customs clearance efficiency, and some Russian and Ukrainian buyers may also have credit risks, and relevant enterprises need to be cautious.
In fact, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the cosmetics industry is only a microcosm, and in this era of peace, the two countries are at war, and the impact is reflected in all aspects. When the war scenes in the history books of my childhood happened in real life, it was lamentable and shocking.
At present, the war is still going on, we can also track some post-war scenes from the Internet, many refugees have been displaced, and the serious consequences of the war are unimaginable.
Some people say that in the era of globalization, the impact of war is global, and no one can escape it. Indeed, the reality is that it is difficult for any country to stay out of the war. From the people, what we have personally experienced is the soaring international oil price and gold price.
We look forward to a peaceful life and may the war pass soon!