Financial Associated Press (Beijing, reporter Lin Jian) -- Since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced war on Ukraine on February 24, the war has been raging for two days. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is still deadlocked, and the resulting "butterfly effect" has shaken the global market.
The essence of the "butterfly effect" is to describe a chaotic phenomenon, and this time the focus of the wrapped up is two institutional conference calls: one is The meeting where Shen Wanhongyuan predicted that the war "cannot be fought", and the other is the meeting where Goldman Sachs has the former head of MI6 in the UK, suggesting that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not deteriorate to an unmanageable situation. More than 50 institutions have analyzed the impact of war conflicts on investment, and optimism is the mainstay.
Interpretation of the former head of MI6
Goldman Sachs is understood to have held a conference call on the evening of Feb. 24 for its private wealth clients, which was moderated by Alex Younger, a former head of Britain's foreign intelligence agency MI6 (Military Intelligence 6, commonly known as MI6).
According to the circulating minutes of the meeting, the meeting was also attended by Peter Oppenheimer, chief strategist at Goldman Sachs, and Jeff Currie, chief commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs. Alex Younger believes that the possibility of further escalation of the war is also very small, and Putin's motivation is to re-delineate NATO's sphere of influence by promoting talks.
Alexander Younger also said that although the "verbal quarrel" is more fierce, neither NATO nor Russia wants to "actually do it", and neither side wants the situation to escalate further, especially considering that Ukraine itself is not yet NATO. Peter Oppenheimer also noted that overall, we believe the market has absorbed a lot of the slowdown in growth, and a fairly strong risk appetite is rising. It is also worth mentioning that the minutes of the meeting show that Jeff Currie raised the target price of oil prices to $125 (which has broken 100 on the 25th) and raised the price of natural gas, on the grounds that the performance of oil prices implied many risk premiums such as uncertainty about the way sanctions were imposed.
Just before the conference call, before the battle began, Shen Wanhongyuan also held a conference call on the theme of "An Unwinnable War: Ukraine In the Perspective of the Great Power Game between the United States, Europe, and Russia." At the meeting, Shen Yi, professor of the Department of International Politics of the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University, and Jin Qianjing, chief analyst of strategic asset allocation of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, expressed their views.
The public opinion effect brought about by the two phone calls is completely different, and some investors believe that Shen Wanhongyuan's prediction has been "punched in the face", and most of them are demeaning and mocking. A large brokerage analyst told the Financial Associated Press reporter, "Whether the war will break out in the end, no one knows, there are too many factors involving uncertainty, but before the war, the analyst gave a speculation based on the previous research and market judgment, which does not mean that this speculation is unscientific and unprofessional." ”
In addition, in the view of some analysts interviewed by the Financial Associated Press reporter, the real war is unpredictable and accurate, and the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has exceeded some previous forecasts, so it is not possible to harshly criticize analysts or some experts.
The three major A-share stock indexes rose back
Shen Wanhongyuan's predictions are moving in the opposite direction, and the former head of MI6 frankly admits that "the possibility of further escalation of the war is very small", all of which reflect the optimistic attitude towards the evolution path of the war. At the first time of the outbreak of the war, the reporters of the Financial Associated Press learned their views from a number of public offerings, private equity and securities companies, among which the attitude held by most institutions was also optimistic.
In terms of securities companies, Liu Gang, a strategic analyst at CICC, believes that from the perspective of general laws, unless a larger-scale conflict breaks out and affects a wider range of conflicts, the impact of local conflicts on major assets will not be particularly significant, and the duration is relatively short, often pulsed, and will not completely change the original trend.
In terms of private equity, Zhou Chengdong, director of risk control at Guangzhou Yunxi Investment, believes that short-term market fluctuations caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will definitely occur, but believes that this impact will soon end, because no one can afford to drag on the war for a long time.
In terms of public offering, Ping An Fund pointed out that the impact of the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global capital market is relatively short-lived.
According to the incomplete statistics of the reporter of the Financial Associated Press, as of February 26, in the past two days, more than 50 institutions have issued relevant research reports on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the capital market. After sorting out, most of the institutions believe that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not last, and the long-term impact of the geopolitical crisis on the trend of major assets is limited.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that historically, the emotional impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis on the international capital market has been relatively short-lasting. Except for Russia's own capital market, which began to shake downward, the US and Chinese stock markets have gradually pulled back after a brief downward shock. Therefore, the current capital market does not need to panic, the fundamentals of A shares will not be affected by the Ukrainian crisis in the short term, and there are still good allocation opportunities. From a commodity perspective, oil and gas prices fluctuated not much during the Crimean crisis, but natural gas and oil prices are likely to reach new highs in the current spatio-temporal context.
The western strategy team believes that from historical experience, the bulls and bears that have not changed the equity market for a long time have more of a negative impact on the equity market at key nodes before and after the war. In terms of the impact on A shares, it is more through the US stock → the Asia-Pacific market → A shares, and the medium-term trend has limited impact.
The GF Strategy Dai Kang team believes that geopolitical risk itself does not dominate the trend of the stock market, only structural impact. Judging from the experience of historical geopolitical risk on the stock market, if the original stock market trend is good, the adjustment caused by geopolitical risk will bring opportunities to buy, and if the original stock market trend is negative, it will deepen the decline.
The panic brought about by the battle was transmitted to the international capital market especially obvious on the 24th, on the same day, the Russian stock market plunged more than 50%, the US Stock Dow Futures fell by more than 800 points, the European stock market opened a collective plunge, and safe-haven funds pushed up the prices of gold, oil and other commodities. Focusing on A shares, the three major stock indexes plunged wildly in the afternoon, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell by more than 2%, and 3951 individual stocks in the whole market fell, of which only oil and gold concept stocks rose intensively.
The plot of A-share turning off the lights and eating "udon noodles" (the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is mainly concentrated in the eastern region of Ukraine) improved on the 25th. On the same day, the three major stock indexes rose in unison, the Shanghai index reported 3451.41 points, an increase of 0.63%, the Shenzhen index reported 13412.92 points, an increase of 1.21%, the ChiNext index reported 2855.80 points, an increase of 2.58%, and the net inflow of main funds was 18.712 billion yuan, an increase of 120.26% over the 24th.
However, from the transaction amount, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities traded 1.02 trillion yuan, a sharp contraction of 25.24% compared with 1.36 trillion yuan on the 24th, and the industry sectors with the highest increase were medical services, medical equipment, and electricity, and the industry sectors with larger declines were precious metals, coal mining and processing, and national defense and military industry, which performed prominently on the 24th.
In this regard, Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of Guangdong Kai Securities, believes that there are short-term external disturbances in A-shares, and in the medium and long term, they will return to economic and profit fundamentals. Huaxia Fund also pointed out that the impact of geopolitical risk events on the A-share market is limited.
Zhongtai Securities wrote in "Climax and End: What Impact will the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis Have on the Capital Market? The report pointed out that investors do not need to panic at this time, the climax of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis may also mean that it is about to "end", whether on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis itself, the two major risks that the market is worried about - the risk of war and the risk of strong sanctions on Russian energy, the high probability will not occur; or on the crisis of the "close to the war", the most panicked moment "contrarian investment strategy" instead of the historical law of the highest yield or indicates: the risk assets represented by stocks have a high probability of "bottoming out" in stages. And crude oil prices or a high probability of phased "peaking".