Fueled by the US-led NATO, in the early morning of February 24, 2022, Russian time, Russia officially announced the use of land, sea and air forces to launch military strikes on Ukrainian territory, in accordance with Russia's strategic intentions, through war to achieve the removal of Ukraine's military threat and ensure Russia's national security interests. The Russo-Ukrainian war changed the geopolitical balance, and the shock wave formed by the war oscillated the future direction of the European countries and the world structured by international security, international trade and international relations, and will profoundly change the existing world pattern - so that the globalization process tends to stagnate, the world market is reorganized, and the situation of one-super hegemony is strengthened. The new world pattern is that the development of a hot war in some parts of Europe marks the beginning of a new Cold War between the us-led coalition countries against Russia and its friendly countries.
The evolution of the Russo-Ukrainian War
War is a continuation of politics. If the problem of trade profit distribution cannot be solved at the political level, it will evolve into a war situation. The potential national strategic objectives of the great powers are deeply hidden in the smoke of the Russo-Ukrainian war, making Ukraine, which is at the center of a multi-party struggle, helplessly become the source of war. According to the rational state, the US-led NATO is fully capable of preventing a war between Russia and Ukraine – and as long as NATO promises not to let Ukraine join NATO, this war will not happen. Unfortunately, however, the leaders of Britain, France, and Germany went to Moscow to mediate without making substantive commitments, so mediation work did not play a role. The United States, on the other hand, watched the regional conflict escalate into war with a fiery mentality, and its true intentions needed in-depth analysis. The Ukrainian government launched a bottomless artillery attack on Luhansk and Doneesk, directly stimulating Russia to declare the independence of the two oblasts that originally belonged to Ukraine. The Ukrainian government immediately showed the world its innocent and beaten side, and as Ukraine fought for de facto control of the two states, Russia finally couldn't bear to launch a full-scale military operation against Ukraine. According to the analysis of bounded rationality, the top level of the Ukrainian government should have a sand table deduction and analysis of every decision of the Ukrainian government that concerns Russia's vital interests, and its conclusion is undoubtedly that it has been ruthlessly attacked by Russia, no matter how the Ukrainian government uses the Ukrainian public opinion to oppose Russia, the result is doomed - that is, the existing government is forcibly dissolved by Russia, and the senior leaders of the Ukrainian government are severely punished. However, the senior leadership of the Ukrainian government has violated the requirements of rationality and national interests, and even irrationally tied the Ukrainian people to the war train. It is necessary to go against the grain. To put it bluntly, Ukraine's top government is completely controlled by the US-led NATO, which threatens life and the status of wealth it holds, and has to make a gradual escalation of policy toward Russia according to the intentions of the United States. The Ukrainian people became victims of the great powers.
2. Profit and loss
The economic gains and losses caused by the actual war between Russia and Ukraine are limited and controllable, but the economic sanctions are the mainstay, supplemented by military deterrence (distinguished from the first Cold War, the first Cold War was both military deterrence and economic isolation), and the economic gains and losses caused by it are far greater than the gains and losses of both sides of the war, and it is difficult to estimate.
(1) The United States benefits
The United States regained control of the world market. In recent years, with the investment of scientific and technological innovation in countries around the world, especially in developed countries, the gradual upgrading of domestic industries has gradually led to the gradual decline of the ability of the United States to control the world market with the industrial chain controlled by technology as the mainstay, and the ability of the supply chain and value chain to control the world market has gradually declined, and the profits of the United States from the world market have decreased year by year, and excessive consumption has made the US government highly indebted. The United States urgently needs to use the method of war to make the implicit method of controlling the world market by technology to the explicit control of the world market under the new Cold War model. The decline of the United States in controlling the world market is an inevitable historical trend, which stems from the efforts of the people of all countries in the world to pursue a better life and build a strong country and a prosperous country. The United States is not willing to gradually lose control of the world market, as a super hegemonic power, and cannot directly confront other major powers directly militarily, and can only need to stand on the so-called "moral high ground" by provoking wars between other major powers in some regions and neighboring countries to launch alliances headed by the United States and quasi-coalition countries will form a new Cold War camp, and countries targeted by the new Cold War will be sanctioned and excluded from the world market. That is to say, the Russo-Ukrainian war was the inevitable result of the deliberate efforts of the United States, and its real purpose was neither entirely the return of capital nor the gain of arms sales, but to regain control of the world market in accordance with the rules set by the United States.
The new Cold War is similar to the old Cold War. The occurrence of the old and new Cold Wars is the division of the global camp of the Directors of the United States intending to control the world market, and both are carefully calculated and designed by the United States, so that the Cold War camp centered on the United States has reclassified and graded the resources, capital, labor, land, information, intelligence, etc. in the world market, and designed according to the industrial division of labor carried out according to the strength of the country, and all the purposes are ultimately to serve the financial oligarchy. The difference was that in the first Cold War, the Cold War camp was evenly matched, and the scope of U.S. control over the world market was limited to the extent that the Soviet camp could not control. The United States has divided the industries in the camp with technological superiority, making the US dollar the currency circulating in the camp and all over the world. The financial hegemony of the United States has since been established. In the second Cold War, the technological control of the United States in high-tech products is still an absolute advantage, and in intermediate products and primary products, it is more dependent on the world market, and its industrial chain, supply chain and value chain are gradually weakened naturally. According to Marx's theory of production, labor creates value. As the world's largest consumer, the faster the U.S. dollar flows, the higher the U.S. debt will be. If the world market cannot be fundamentally transformed, the United States will naturally disintegrate due to the collapse of the dollar system. The United States established a new Cold War camp, reshaped the world market, redesigned the circulation of factors of production, and designed a currency circulation system that conformed to the United States are practical problems that the United States must solve. According to the classification of the importance of production factors, the first Cold War made the dollar and oil become interdependent, then the second Cold War, the later United States will inevitably use the dollar and effective data, especially scientific data as interdependence, in order to design and divide the currency circulation system, shaping the world market production system.
(b) Russian losses
Russia, as a sanctioned country, will certainly be excluded from the world market. While Russia has acquired what it calls geopolitical security benefits, the world monetary system has been re-anchored so that Russia's energy supply will not be a key part of influencing U.S. control of world markets. Moreover, countries that are friendly to them will be sanctioned or labeled as supporting Russia's war, and their situation in the world market will be more difficult.
(3) The profit and loss of other countries is difficult to estimate
European countries lose first and gain later. Mainly the investment losses caused by the early war, the later period was compensated by the United States to control the world market and its commitments. China should handle the gains and losses brought about by the Russo-Ukrainian war with its super diplomatic capabilities, balance the contradictory relations between the United States and Russia, and ensure national interests. Other countries that do not participate in sanctions will be subjected to harsher exploitation in world markets.
Third, changes in the world pattern
The changes in the world pattern are mainly reflected in changes in structure, which can be divided according to technology, the world market, the alliance relationship of state relations, and the international security dominated by geopolitics. The new Cold War marked a world pattern of three camps: the first camp was the camp of countries that imposed sanctions led by the United States; the second camp was the sanctioned countries dominated by Russia; and the third camp was the countries that did not participate in the sanctions and were not sanctioned. The structure of the world market is the redesign of the currency circulation system by the United States, and data capital has become the internal focus of the great power struggle and the change of the pattern. Geopolitical and military conflicts became the norm. In the next two decades, the hot and cold conflicts around major countries outside the United States, domestic hot issues have become the news hotspots of global concern.