Source: Privy Council No. 10
Long-standing Concerns in the West have finally become a reality – Russian troops will attack Ukraine in three ways. Although NATO has repeatedly warned that "Russia is about to use force against Ukraine", after the Russian army really moved on the 24th, the outside world suddenly found that NATO was not prepared to deal with the conflict, and even they themselves did not believe that "Russia will attack Ukraine immediately".
From this result, Russia's strategic deception before the start of the war was quite outstanding.
What impressed the old driver was first of all the Russian amphibious operations in the Black Sea, which successfully landed near Odessa, ukraine's fourth largest city and a strategic black sea area.
Chinese and foreign media interviews with local residents mentioned the sound of shelling near Odessa.
Although Ukrainian officials denied cnnews reports that "Russian troops have landed in Odessa," local residents admitted to hearing nearby shelling. In addition, whether it is the strategic intention of the Russian army's "north-south attack" or the special action of the russian navy's special landing ship before, it can prove from the side that "the Russian army attacked Odessa".
In order to achieve this large-scale amphibious landing, the Russian Navy mobilized almost all the elite of the four major fleets, and the capital ships from the Northern Fleet, the Baltic Fleet and the Pacific Fleet traveled nearly 10,000 kilometers to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. At least six of them, large and medium-sized landing ships, entered the Black Sea to support the landing.
Under nato's nose, the Russian landing ship Ivan Glenn entered the Black Sea through the Bosphorus without any obstacles.
However, the strategic mobilization of the Russian Navy has not aroused enough vigilance from NATO. Although social media and analysts are speculating about "whether the Russian Navy is preparing for the landing operation in the Black Sea", under the confusion of the Russian military's announcement of the "largest maritime exercise", NATO has only maintained a "vigilant" state for Russian warships gathering from all over the world to the Mediterranean, and has not targeted deployment, and even for the Russian Navy to send two "Glory" class cruisers to focus on the US-French-Italian three aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean, NATO also believes that "this is a conventional dynamic".
The US "Star-Spangled Banner" said on the 23rd that a senior Pentagon official said that although Russia has gathered strong naval forces in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea in southern Ukraine, "there are more than 10 landing ships in the Black Sea", russian cruisers are not far from the US "Truman" aircraft carrier, but he said, "Russia is obviously only monitoring the 'Truman', which is not uncommon, but that is all, this is the typical intelligence monitoring of the US Navy's activities." ”
Under the paralyzing mentality of NATO, the Russian Navy successfully achieved a large-scale assembly, not only has an overwhelming advantage in the Black Sea, which can carry out amphibious landings with almost no external interference, but also the only aircraft carrier (the "Truman") in the Mediterranean and even the entire Atlantic region of the United States has also been closely contained by the two Cruisers of the Russian Army.
A similar situation occurs on the ground battlefield. Russian troops have been increasing their troops to the Ukrainian border areas since the early winter of last year. Although NATO has been warning that "Russia is going to attack Ukraine", like the story of "the wolf is coming", the more such warnings are said, the outside world is tired.
It was not until Putin ordered Russian troops to enter the eastern region of Ukraine for "peacekeeping" that Britain urgently supplied anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.
The US "Defense News" said on the 24th that until recently, Pentagon officials were still discussing what to do if the Russian military controlled Ukraine's air supremacy and cut off the air passage for Western military aid to Ukraine. This fully shows that until the day before the Russian offensive, NATO did not realize that the large-scale russian attack on Ukraine was "imminent".
As for the fact that some of the main forces of the Russian army took the opportunity of the large-scale exercise between Russia and Belarus to stay in Belarus and then launch an attack from the direction of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, from the country, it is the standard "concealment of the sky and the sea".
Some people may think that all the movements of the Russian army have actually been exposed to the eyes of the West, and the United States has even predicted the time of the Russian army's attack many times.
The process of assembling Russian tank troops allowed NATO to relive the story of "wolf coming"
What the old driver wants to emphasize is that in the era of information society and satellite reconnaissance becoming more and more popular, it is impossible to completely hide military movements and not let opponents discover them. Especially in the era of highly developed social media, whether it is the United States or Russia, the relevant military moves can not escape the eyes of netizens, let alone professional intelligence personnel. The increasing clarity and increasing number of reconnaissance satellites (including civilian remote sensing satellites) have also made it increasingly difficult to evade satellite reconnaissance.
Therefore, strategic deception in the modern sense is not to hide one's actions from the opponent's discovery, the key lies in how to use a series of other actions to make the opponent misjudge. For example, during the Gulf War, everyone knew that the multinational force led by the United States was about to launch a ground attack on Iraq, and most of the movements of the US military were also under the attention of the outside world, but the United States made full use of the attention of the outside world, sent a powerful amphibious fleet to attract the attention of the Iraqi army to coastal defense, and at the same time used mechanized troops to bypass the strong defense of the Iraqi army, and unexpectedly surrounded and annihilated the main force of the Iraqi army from the flank rear with an excellent "left hook fist", which is a successful example of modern strategic deception.
Developed social media makes it impossible to keep Russian military movements secret
The Russian attack on Ukraine this time also succeeded in strategic deception. Although the mobilization of the Russian army has long fallen in the eyes of NATO, the Russian army has completed the large-scale assembly of the army and the preparation for war with the help of various smoke bombs such as the "largest maritime exercise" and the "Russian-Belarus strategic exercise", and launched a surprise attack in three ways in unison under the circumstance that NATO thought that "the Russian army is only issuing an everyday threat to Ukraine".
As mentioned earlier, judging from the reactions of the United States and other NATO countries, the timing of this large-scale russian attack was indeed unexpected.
Only in the end, the old driver wants to say that although the strategic deception gave the Russian army a "dream start" to the Ukrainian attack, once the war ignites, how it will end up and what kind of price the parties will pay is another topic.