At present, the essence of A-shares is in a medium-term adjustment market, the market money-making effect is not good, and it is very difficult to issue new funds this year. The international situation also makes investors uncertain, and the price of gold continues to rise. The hot spots rotate faster, and it is difficult to grasp the rhythm of hype. Sectors with strong certainty to rise are extremely difficult to find. For example, it is difficult to determine whether the two major sectors of new energy and consumption can rise this year and next year. As well as banks, real estate, machinery and other sectors can continue to rise in the future, will this round of increases be large? These are difficult to determine.
At present, it is particularly difficult for the A-share market to find a sector with a high probability of rising sharply. Today I will talk about a plate that is infinitely close to 100% will rise, and it must rise sharply, and it is possible to rise sharply this year, and at the latest next year, it is a plate with a probability of rising nearly 100%, it is - the breeding plate!
Under the double blow of rising raw material prices and falling pork prices. In the fourth quarter of last year, the pork breeding industry fell into the loss of the whole industry, and some listed companies even lost tens of billions of yuan. The price of pork fell to the price of cabbage. Come to think of it, is this something that can happen for a long time? Breeding enterprises lose money to sell meat to everyone to eat, can this matter last? The pig industry is not a charitable organization, it is about making money!
The reason why the current pork price is so cheap is nothing more than because of the oversupply of pork. But this situation is certainly a temporary situation. Large breeders and retail investors are now not making money, and no one can bear it for a long time. Under the current situation, farmers will inevitably reduce their production, and some farmers will even withdraw from the aquaculture industry. As little as a few months, more than a year as long as pork is bound to rise in price because it is less and less.
This is bound to happen! Because it is impossible for the aquaculture industry to lose money for a long time. Unless we stop eating pork, the pig industry will disappear. How long can this loss in the aquaculture industry last? It certainly won't last long. It's like people don't eat, how long can people support it?
Therefore, it is absolutely the right choice to bet that the performance of listed companies in the breeding category will be reversed. In terms of investment, you can choose the stock of a listed pig breeding company, or you can choose a fund for the breeding industry. From the perspective of profit margin, we choose a good breeding company stock, and we may earn more in the future. But from a safety point of view, choosing a farming ETF fund is the best choice.
At present, there are four breeding sector ETF funds, and we take the China Merchants Securities Livestock Breeding ETF as an example.
It holds almost all of the stocks of listed companies in the aquaculture category. As long as pig breeding enterprises turn losses into profits, the probability of breeding ETF funds rising is infinitely close to 100%! And it is said above that pig breeding enterprises will turn losses into profits sooner or later, which is a must.
Some shareholders will worry that the stock prices of aquaculture companies have rebounded sharply, overdrawing the company's performance. This worry is unnecessary. In the past, my article specifically explained this problem, so I will not talk about it here.
In short, the aquaculture sector is the most likely to rise at any time, and we will not wait very long. Even with the most pessimistic forecasts, we won't wait longer than next year at the latest. Spending up to a year waiting for a market that is at least a few tens of percentage points or even doubled is definitely a deal worth paying patience.