Text / Liu Jia Editor / Qi Fei
Typography / Gao Yunqian
On the evening of February 21, Moscow time, the situation in Eastern Ukraine made amazing progress.
Russian President Vladimir Putin convened a federal security conference and directly announced his recognition of the independence of the "Donetsk People's Republic" (DNR) and the "Luhansk People's Republic" (LNR) – a card that was known to be in Putin's hand, and he did not expect him to play it so decisively and quickly, even before the US-Russian summit under negotiation.
After Putin recognized sovereignty over the Donbass region, the West predicted that Russia would make a major military move against Kiev. But at this moment, what can the West do with a "disobedient" Russia? To what extent can Russia withstand Western economic sanctions? The answer is slowly being revealed under the watchful eyes of the whole world.
Ukraine, as a country concerned, said in a televised speech on February 22 that Ukraine would reserve the right to carry out individual and collective defense. But ukraine alone is no longer possible to reverse Russia's decision on the "two republics" of Donbass.
In donbass, the mood of the locals is both stirred by the news and has a familiar tranquility. Since 2014, the gunfire here has never really stopped. The possibility of war, then and now, has never been far away.
In the donbass streetscape, some locals have adapted to life with the war.
Sasha (not his real name), a resident of Luhansk, told Phoenix Weekly that if the status quo can be maintained, life will actually be quite passable. Some videos circulating on social media show that the environment in the Resettlement Sites on the Russian side is far from comfortable. Leaving his existing home to become a "war refugee" in some sense is a difficult decision for him, let alone a guarantee of happiness.
"Putin seems to be venting his displeasure for more than 20 years"
On the evening of February 21, the leaders of the two regions of Eastern Ukraine first publicly asked Putin to recognize his independent status, and Putin immediately convened the members of the Russian Federation Security Council to discuss the issue and make a decision. After that, Putin gave a "history lesson" (a televised speech) to the camera camera, and the Russian army was stationed in the Donbass region overnight, and the whole process was completed in one go.
In the early hours of the next morning, the Russian news agency recalled everything that happened that night, the agency pointed out that federal security meetings are often held behind closed doors, but Putin additionally convened the State Duma President Volodin, the Federal Council Chairman Matviyanko, Prime Minister Mishustin, the Federal Security Agency Director Portnikov, the Defense Minister Shoigu and Foreign Minister Lavrov and other important figures of the state leadership to discuss the situation in Wudong through live television.
Meetings were arranged in the Kremlin's spacious Catherine Hall, which was usually more used for grand receptions or ceremonies.
On February 21, Putin held a security conference in Catherine Hall and made a decision to recognize the independence of the two regions in eastern Ukraine.
Kozak, deputy director of the Office of the Russian President and representative of the Tripartite Contact Group on Ukraine, took the lead in saying that he was fully convinced that neither Ukraine nor the West today needs Donbass and that "under normal circumstances", Ukraine will never implement the Minsk Agreement.
At the heart of the agreement, reached in early 2015, is a ceasefire, withdrawal, arms reduction in eastern Ukraine, and constitutional reforms to give the two oblasts special status to ensure ethnic Russian rights. However, the Donbass region of Oudong remained in a state of low-intensity conflict after the signing of the agreement. According to official Ukrainian statistics, about 15,000 people have been killed in the fighting since 2014.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke at the meeting about diplomatic options for resolving the Ukrainian issue. "The West is not going to change its position, and everyone understands that. As for giving them two or three days to change their minds, it's a matter of opinion. The events in eastern Ukraine, he said, were not only genocide but an attack on everything in Russia, meaning that Russia "has no other way but to recognize the two republics."
When it was Defense Minister Shoigu's turn to speak, he agreed with the statement that Russia had no other options. "Arms shipments [from the West to Ukraine] are continuing, with incomprehensible purposes. It's hard for me to believe that when they say it's defensive, and the number of these weapons has already surpassed that of some NATO members. Ultimately, Shoigu expressed a "clear affirmation" as to whether the two "republics" of Eastern Ukraine should be recognized.
Putin revealed that in order to hear the true opinions expressed, he and all the participants did not communicate in advance on the topic of the day. Officials at the scene mentioned the possibility of "incorporating the two republics into Russia" in their exchanges with Putin, and Putin corrected them. "We're not talking about that." Putin shook his head and said, "We are discussing whether to recognize their independence." ”
The outcome of the meeting was evident, with the political elite in Moscow making a decision at Putin's prompting. In the evening, Putin delivered a national televised speech, announcing the recognition of the two "republics" in eastern Ukraine as independent countries and signing relevant agreements and presidential decrees. Russian troops then entered the Donbass region to "maintain peace", and videos circulating online showed that two Russian armored convoys were already in Donetsk and were advancing to the north and west.
Putin signed a document on the independence status of the two "republics".
More than a month ago, when the Russian State Duma first raised the issue of recognizing the independence status of the two "republics," no one expected things to develop so quickly – at a time when Russia was stressing the importance of implementing the Minsk Agreement to many parties, including China, the United States and European countries.
On February 22, the Russian State Duma announced the adoption of the relevant agreement signed by Putin the night before. According to RIA Novosti, this means that the Minsk process is de facto dead, and Russia no longer expects it.
The most exciting part of the upheaval on the 21st was Putin's televised speech to russian and Ukrainian citizens. The BBC commented that Putin expressed anger, impatience and threats in the speech, feeling like venting the discontent that has been stuck in his chest for more than 20 years, and some of it even sounded like he was running for The president of Ukraine.
Screenshot of Putin's televised speech
"You don't want us to be friends." He shouted to the West, "But you don't have to be enemies of us. Putin accused the West of trying to curb Russia's development, and he once again stressed that Russia had made demands in the early stages of the current round of Russian-Ukrainian crisis, that is, NATO must stop eastward expansion, Ukraine's accession to NATO has always been Russia's red line, and the West must not continue to ignore Russia's security concerns and needs.
When talking about Ukraine, Putin once again returns to the version of history he endorses: modern Ukraine was created entirely by Russia, or more accurately, by Bolshevik, communist Russia. Ukraine has almost never had a stable tradition of a real state.
In his speech, Putin even denied the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state power and condemned the current Ukrainian government that came to power after the protests against the "coup" through Kiev Square in 2014, which has completely become a vassal of the West and may be used by the West as a springboard to attack Russia.
In his view, the whole purpose of the so-called pro-Western civilizational choice of the Ukrainian oligarchic government is not to create better conditions for the well-being of the people, but to serve Russia's geopolitical opponents, who have stolen billions of dollars from the Ukrainian people and are hidden by the oligarchs in their Western bank accounts.
"In announcing the decision adopted today, I have full confidence in the support of Russian citizens and all patriotic forces on the mainland." Putin said he believes he can represent the true will of the people in Russia and Ukraine.
How effective will the new sanctions imposed by the West be?
Shortly after Putin's speech, the United States took the lead in announcing sanctions, but the move was less severe. U.S. President Joe Biden simply issued an executive order prohibiting Americans from making new investments, trade and financing related to the two separate regions. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said, "We will coordinate with our partners to take appropriate measures." ”
On the 21st local time, Biden first met privately with the national security team to listen to the latest intelligence information about the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The White House said the United States had anticipated Russia's approach. After that, Biden also held phone calls with the leaders of Zelenskiy, France and Germany to discuss countermeasures.
On February 22, local time, US President Joe Biden made a public speech on the situation in Russia and Ukraine and announced the latest sanctions against Russia.
On the 22nd, Biden announced the latest sanctions against Russia. In his speech, he called Russia's latest operation an "invasion of Ukraine," announcing that the United States and its allies and partners had decided to impose a comprehensive lockdown sanctions on Russia's two largest financial institutions, the Russian State Development Bank (VEB) and the military bank, and that Russia would no longer be able to conduct lending transactions and raise funds in the U.S. and European markets. In addition, Biden also announced the imposition of sanctions on Russia's elite and their families, and said that in cooperation with Germany, it will no longer promote the Nord Stream-2 project. Biden also said he would do his best to ensure that economic sanctions against Russia would not have a disproportionate impact on the U.S. economy, especially on energy prices.
Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany via the baltic seabed, bypassing Ukraine to transport Russian gas to Germany, and then to other European countries through The German trunk pipeline.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was the first to condemn Russia, calling its decision a "flagrant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity." He announced on Feb. 22 that Britain would impose a "first wave" of economic sanctions against Russia, targeting five Russian banks and three high-net-worth individuals.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that Russia's decision on the status of parts of Ukraine violates Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and is inconsistent with the principles of the UN Charter. He called on all parties to resolve the conflict peacefully, in accordance with the Minsk Agreement endorsed by the Council in its resolution 2202 (2015).
European Commission President von der Leyen and European Council President Michel also condemned Putin's decision, saying it was a flagrant violation of international law as well as the Minsk Agreement. In a joint statement, the two EU leaders said: "The EU will impose sanctions on those involved in this illegal act. The EU reiterates its unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. ”
How exactly will the West sanction Russia? According to media analysis such as the Wall Street Journal, Washington still has many options for imposing additional economic sanctions on Russia, including kicking Russia out of the SWIFT (World Banking Financial Telecommunication Association) payment system.
Given that Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of oil, gas and metals, blocking Russian companies' access to the dollar market could have a stinging effect, as these products are largely priced and settled in dollars.
Russia seems to be completely unafraid of the threat of Western sanctions, and before Putin announced his decision to recognize it, russia had spoken with German Chancellor Schoelz and French President Emmanuel Macron and made relevant briefings. Russian Prime Minister Mishustin even said at a security meeting on the 21st that Russia has done research on possible reactions from the outside world, which he believes is "bearable."
After the Crimean crisis broke out in 2014, the European Union and the United States also imposed quite severe economic sanctions on Russia. According to the Atlantic Council, these measures cost the Russian economy about $50 billion a year. But Russia has not changed its behavior as a result of the sanctions, and several Russian sources later said what happened after 2014 showed that the West's ability to use sanctions to combat Moscow's decision was limited.
Researchers at Aalto University in Finland combed through the impact of Western sanctions on Russia between 2014 and 2017 and found that more than 80 percent of the Russian companies they sampled reported adverse effects of sanctions in their annual summaries. But the researchers also found that European companies were also affected by "increased overall business uncertainty from early sanctions."
Russia may have realized that Europe would also be a hostage to Moscow if the West decided to exercise the so-called "nuclear option" of financial sanctions, such as separating Russia from the SWIFT payment system. The biggest problem facing the West, therefore, is that they cannot agree on how to punish Russia.
Economic ties between the United States and Russia are very limited, with annual trade volume of less than $30 billion, which is only a fraction of the nearly $200 billion of trade between Russia and Europe. This means that Europe will have to absorb the reaction of sanctions to a greater extent.
Yuval Webber, an assistant professor at the Bush Administration and School of Public Service at texas A&M University, told Al Jazeera: "In the short-term tactical sense, Western sanctions will not have enough impact on Russia." Since 2014, he said, the Kremlin has developed two "parallel economies," one for ordinary Russians under sanctions and the other for economic, political and military elites, which are protected. Russia's international reserves amount to $630 billion, which could allow Putin to keep the elites who follow him safe from harm.
Elites in Moscow agree that they are not afraid of Western sanctions, and it is not easy for the United States and Europe today to build unity. Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe needed to engage in its own dialogue with Russia, which was independent of Washington and Moscow. Biden also acknowledged that NATO may be divided on how to deal with Moscow, depending on the extent of Russia's intervention in Ukraine.
The people of Donbass living in the shadow of war
Donetsk and Luhansk, collectively known as the Donbass Region, are located in eastern Ukraine, close to the Russian border, where the main industries are coal and steel. The area is currently controlled by both Kiev and pro-Russian militants. Before the outbreak of the Donbass War in 2014, it was undisputed Territory of Ukraine.
Schematic map of occupied ukrainian and pro-Russian separatist-controlled zones
During the Crimean crisis, pro-Russian forces in the Donbass region waited for an opportunity to effectively control a part of the territory close to the Russian-Ukrainian border after defeating ukrainian government forces. After seizing power, they organized a vote and declared themselves the establishment of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic", and at one point demanded their annexation to Russia.
A Ukrainian soldier went to the trenches of the front line. A red ribbon on a nearby branch indicates that there may be mines buried nearby.
Before Russia declared its recognition of the independence status of the two "republics", no country in the world recognized them as sovereign States.
Although the Ukrainian government advocates absolute sovereignty over the political solution to the Problem of the Donbass region, it has done very little in the economic and people's livelihood issues in the disputed donbass region, and the local people rely more on Russian resources to survive - Moscow often accuses Kiev of committing "genocide" in the local area, but the Ukrainian government is in fact incapable of intervening in local development.
From the day the war broke out, the local people had a hard time. A Donetsk citizen, alias Anna, said in a recent interview with the Russian liberal newspaper Novaya Zeitung that her life had changed drastically since 2014. Warzone life allowed her to tell the difference between gunfire and what kind of shells would leave a hole in the road, but most of the time she was afraid of even walking out of the house.
The fear of war is on the one hand, and on the other hand, the daily life that is difficult to maintain. Anna said that since the end of 2014, many processed products, such as hair dyes, diapers and toilet paper, have disappeared. She once saw drivers opening suitcases at the Russian-Ukrainian border, full of smuggled stuff that locals could pay for.
Because it is a war zone, the Donetsk government has strict controls on the people, the house needs to fly the flag of the area, and the mobile phone can not store any illegal content, such as unnecessary photos (such as government buildings, soldiers, weapons, etc.) and communication records. "So I only had 4 pictures of the dog and 20 of the children, as well as some screenshots of flowers and recipes. The rest are removed. Anna said.
In 2022, a puppy on the streets of Donetsk
Sasha confirmed this to Phoenix Weekly. He said locals were wary of being interviewed by the media and generally needed to report to the "Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic". But in general, Sasha believes that local life is still normal, and if he can maintain the status quo, it will be enough.
In 2019, Putin signed a presidential decree that simplified the process for people in Donbass to apply for Russian passports for humanitarian purposes. In recent years, Moscow has issued more than 720,000 Russian passports to about one-fifth of the local population, according to the Associated Press. Some of the elderly still receive Ukrainian pensions and apply for Russian passports.
Sasha, 34, said the policy basically allowed him to become a Russian citizen at any time, but he had not yet decided to do so.
In the shadow of this war, Kiev's influence on the local area has not been 100% eliminated, and it fills some of the parts that Russia lacks, such as the fact that the local pharmacies mostly use Ukrainian medicines. Local pharmacists told the media that they were imported from official sources. No one talks about it out loud and pretends it doesn't exist, just buys it when needed. When needed, people also cross the border to Russia to buy some chicken.
The outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 also greatly affected the Donbas region. Anna recalled that people's attention was drawn away by the new crown virus, and she was vaccinated with a "satellite" vaccine produced in Russia like everyone else.
Just two years later, war was back the key word in their lives. Since February 18, the leaders of the two "republics" have repeatedly accused Ukrainian government forces of deliberately invading. They launched a massive evacuation campaign that included women, children and the elderly, but barred men between the ages of 18 and 55 from leaving or traveling.
Left: Since the 18th, Donbass has begun to organize the evacuation of children in orphanages. Right: Car explosion in Donbass.
Moscow has instructed the Rostov region, which borders it, to receive refugees from the Donbass region and provide them with the necessary support. According to Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations, more than 60,000 refugees have arrived on Russian territory from the Donbass region.
On 22 February, dennis Pushlin, the leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, signed an order on the conscription of citizens born in 1995-2004 for military service, in addition to an order on the conscription of citizens over the age of 55 years of age to voluntarily enlist in the armed forces.
"I'm a pacifist." Sasha said he had no intention of fleeing his home or being drafted into the army, "I would stay at home and watch the situation change and try not to have any connection to the war." ”