The past 2021 has been a year of great changes in China's real estate, and many unexpected things have happened, and housing enterprises, home buyers and this "18 trillion sales" market are thrilled.
Entering 2022, in the face of the unpredictable market, home buyers feel more anxious and confused, if you have the same feelings, then the next "2022 property market predictions" can help you.
Several predictions for the property market in 2022
Prediction one: bottoming out, low before and high after
In 2022, the real estate market will show a trend of "before low and high after", with the adjustment of policies, correction, and the "reset" of credit lines in the new year, second-hand housing transactions in hot cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Suzhou, Hefei and other hot cities have begun to "tail".
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Second-hand housing can better reflect the cold and warm of the property market, and the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou are the vane of the national property market, and it is only a matter of time before the enthusiasm for buying a house is transmitted from the head to the whole body, and the suppressed demand will eventually be released.
Prediction two: The state encourages the purchase of houses, and confidence is quickly restored
At the beginning of the new year, there are many favorable policies on real estate, and several major departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Central Bank have sent "big gift packages". Among them, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development set the tone for 2022: "fully release the housing needs of residents" The latest statement is worthy of attention.
"Full release" means that the current release is still insufficient, an important reason is that "expectations are weaker", housing is the largest consumption and domestic demand, "full release of residents' housing demand" means that the state encourages the purchase of housing to boost housing consumption, and the confidence of the market will quickly recover this year.
Prediction three: limit price loosening, weak supply
In 2021, the land market experienced an unprecedented large-scale auction, the average transaction rate of the second batch of centralized land supply dropped to 69%, the comprehensive premium rate dropped to 4.0%, and the third batch of centralized land supply basically relied on the national team to support the bottom.
Although there have been price limits in many cities, housing enterprises have experienced ups and downs in the past year, begun to be more cautious about taking land to build houses, and seeking diversified development, the supply of new houses in the next few years has been greatly reduced, and the supply of new houses in hot cities has exceeded demand.
Prediction four: Further easing of money and rising asset prices
On January 18, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of Chinese Min min bank, said: "We must open the monetary policy toolbox even bigger." Two days later, the 1-year LPR declined for the second consecutive month, and the 5-year-plus LPR fell for the first time after 20 consecutive months of "standing still". Monetary policy takes the initiative and exerts force in the front, which means that the "policy wait-and-see period" has completely ended, and now it has entered the "policy comprehensive force period".
On February 17, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year, which means that there is more room for monetary policy easing in the short term, which will also be positive for the property market.
Monetary policy has been further accommodated, money has come, leverage has returned, but the supply of high-quality assets (new homes) available for purchase is weak, and there is still potential for house prices in hot cities to rise.
02The best window period for buying a house
We are ushering in the credit bottom, policy bottom and market bottom, the inflection point of the property market is often the best window period for buying a house, but for those who hold funds, it is not easy to explore the real potential assets across the country.
It is worth looking back at the past year, during the market downturn, in the most difficult moments of the property market, those projects that can still achieve excellent sales performance deserve our focus on research.
Recently, the list of 2021 national hot real estate released by the daily economic news magnesia real estate shows that a total of 9 tens of billions of projects have been born in 15 hot cities across the country, mainly distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, of which Shenzhen China Resources City ranks first in the country with sales of 19.67 billion yuan.
When the entire real estate market is becoming more and more calm, even pessimistic background, where are the advantages of China Resources City?
Interpreting the value of China Resources City, we find that the confidence of home buyers is mainly based on two points:
1. Urban competitiveness is the "chassis" for judging the value of real estate;
2. Scarcity attribute is the only principle for judging the value of investment.
Today, with the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the incremental market dividend, China's economy is turning into an era of high-quality development driven by scientific and technological innovation, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is the strategic starting point for the next 5-10 years.
In the national "14th Five-Year Plan", the first title - international science and technology innovation center, the second title - comprehensive national science center have been given to the Greater Bay Area, which is intended to emphasize that scientific and technological innovation is the top priority of the development of the Greater Bay Area.
At present, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is forming such a pattern: Shenzhen is the leader in leading the innovation of the technology industry in the Greater Bay Area, Hong Kong and Macao are the financial center and the window connecting overseas, Guangzhou is an international business and trade center and comprehensive transportation hub, and Dongguan, Foshan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Huizhou and other cities are advanced manufacturing industry clusters.
There is capital, talent, technology, manufacturing, and a huge consumer market of 1.4 billion people behind it, which is undoubtedly the most potential and competitive fertile soil for science and technology in China.
Among them, the Shenzhen Science and Technology Park, known as China's "Silicon Valley", is a gathering of the most cutting-edge high-tech industries, and some industry giants such as Tencent, DJI, Baidu, ZTE, Mindray, Skyworth, and Fiyta are located here.
Nanshan Science and Technology Park
The above-mentioned China Resources City is located in the core area of Shenzhen Science and Technology Park, and the buyers who have the strength to buy China Resources City will certainly not be limited to short-term policy regulation and market price fluctuations.
Their confidence is more based on the country's vision of building a global benchmark city, and the determination to solve the "card neck" technical problems, the industrial competitiveness of Shenzhen Science and Technology Park, so that Shenzhen's most profitable companies and the most profitable people gather here, so there has been no shortage of purchasing power.
Another important reason why China Resources City's sales have become the first in the country is its scarcity attribute.
Shenzhen Science and Technology Park has developed since 2001, land development tends to be saturated, few new houses have entered the market in the past five years, and high-quality products are in a fault state, which means that China Resources City has entered the market and has almost no competitors in the same area.
With the increase of the purchase restriction threshold in Shenzhen, as well as the impact of the reference price of second-hand houses, the price limit system of new houses and the pilot of real estate tax, buyers have become more and more cherished the purchase qualifications and more pursuit of high-quality projects in core locations, and these changes in market demand have further deepened the scarcity and attention of China Resources City.
In short, the phenomenon of China Resources City is difficult to replicate, and as long as the city of Shenzhen does not decline in the future, the nanshan science and technology park, as the engine of Shenzhen's economic development, will steadily increase the price of its head assets.
03 Urban high-end life dreamer
Looking at the developed countries around the world, no matter what era real estate is in and what role it plays, good products not only become a moat for family asset preservation and appreciation, but also reflect the heritage and temperament of a city.
The greater value of Shenzhen China Resources City is to create a better high-end life in the city for Shenzhen strivers, and how to make their products bring a little change to the city is a problem that all developers need to seriously consider.
The predecessor of China Resources City is the Dachong Village Old Renovation Project, located at the junction of Shennan Avenue and Shahe West Road, between futian CBD and the Qianhai Cooperation Zone of "special zone in the special zone", and its geographical location is very superior.
After more than ten years of updating and polishing, the former urban village has become an urban humanistic comprehensive area integrating quality residential areas, hotel apartments, high-end office buildings, open commercial blocks, experiential shopping centers, and humanized public spaces.
Night scene of China Resources City
As a rare 2.8 million㎡ mega-Mac complex located in the "city center + science and technology innovation center", CHINA RESOURCES City has created an organic whole in the urban space and lifestyle, and its living experience is incomparable to ordinary projects.
With the passage of time, CR City has continuously improved the quality of urban space and continued to release vitality and vitality for Shenzhen.
In 2017, about 230,000 square meters of Vientiane World entered people's vision with a new commercial form. Vientiane World was born from the old transformation of China Resources Dachong Village, a shopping mall composed of blocks + malls, gathering nearly a thousand brands, including large shopping malls, giant screen cinemas, humanistic theaters, art galleries, etc., and has now become an Internet celebrity place for young people to take photos and punch cards.
Vientiane Heaven and Earth Real Picture
In 2018, located in the middle of China Resources City, the nine-year consistent Nanshan Outer Chinese Kehua School officially opened. The school at the doorstep of the owners of China Resources City is the first national three-star green building school in Shenzhen, integrating a library, an art museum, a science and technology museum, a museum and a botanical garden. The school employs teachers from various branches of Nanshan Wai Chinese and high-quality students in the school district, so that parents are full of expectations.
Project placeholder diagram
In 2019, about 13.7 kilometers of the Dashahe Ecological Corridor was put into trial operation. According to the different characteristics of the river along the line, the construction of the DashaHe Ecological Corridor is tailored to local conditions, and nodes such as the College Road, the Urban Forest, and the Dynamic Waterfront are designed to bring comfortable and pleasant riverside romantic spaces to the citizens.
Dashahe Ecological Corridor real photo
The project embraces four polar views of mountains, seas, rivers and parks, looking north at Tanglang Mountain and East View Dasha River, surrounded by Dashahe Park, Songpingshan Park, Keyuan Park, Yanhanshan Country Park and Oct Wetland Park.
Tanglang Mountain real shooting
In 2022, the final work of China Resources City, Runxi Phase II Residence, is for sale, which is also the last opportunity to enter China Resources City.
Project schematic
The second phase is located in the middle of The Kehua School outside Nanshan Chinese and the DashaHe River, and the owners who work in the science and technology park can walk or pedal to work every day. In terms of transportation, the project is close to Shennan Avenue, Binhai Avenue and Beihuan Avenue in the north-south direction, Shahe West Road and Nanhai Avenue in the east and west, and Guangzhou-Shenzhen Expressway in the north.
Real view of the project traffic
In addition, Line 15 (planned) has a Tonggu Station near the project, which can be transferred to Line 1 at Gaoxinyuan Station, which will be directly connected to Qianhai after completion.
The recurrence of the epidemic has made people pay more attention to the health attributes of the living space, and some details of life have been infinitely magnified, such as the lighting, ventilation, landscape vision of the room and so on.
Runxi Phase II's residential products not only enjoy the convenient and superior facilities of China Resources City, but also are close to the Dasha River, which can enjoy the wonderful landscape of the Dasha River without obstruction.
Runxi Phase II owners in the work leisure, downstairs a few minutes walk to the Dasha River ecological corridor, strolling on the Banks of the Dasha River, the water is clear and green, flowers and grass covered, the pressure of the day is naturally released, negative oxygen ions in the air are more beneficial to physical and mental health.
In terms of apartment type, the second phase of Runxi has a construction area of about 120 square meters, three bedrooms, two halls and two bathrooms, using an open vertical hall design, and the dining room is directly connected to the landscape balcony, so that the sunlight can fully shine in, so that the room is transparent and bright. The master bedroom suite is equipped with en-suite bathroom and cloakroom, taking care of the privacy and comfort of the owner.
On January 10 this year, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources announced the list of existing residential land projects, according to statistics, Shenzhen stock of ordinary commercial housing 356 (including for sale and for sale), located in Nanshan District 53, is expected to enter the market this year about 23 residential projects, of which the total price of more than 10 million about 11, the unit type of construction area for pure 120 + ㎡ quality improvement projects about 4, located in Nanshan Science and Technology Park and currently on sale only China Resources City Runxi Phase II 1.
It can be seen that at present, Shenzhen's new housing market, there are not many choices for tens of millions of budgets, on the one hand, in the core area of Shenzhen, there is a shortage of improved products in the supply of industries, supporting facilities and natural resources, on the other hand, good products into the market often need to be lottery spelling points, whether they can buy or not depends on luck.
The brand value of China Resources Chengrunxi Phase II cannot be ignored, and in the period when housing enterprises are facing the test of life and death, how to buy a safe house is more concerning. At present, the total market value of China Resources Land has been upgraded to the top 1 of domestic housing stocks, and in the context of today's "three lines and four gears", China Resources Land has always been in the ranks of "excellent students".
Entering 2022, monetary policy has begun to exert force, the real estate warm wind is frequently blowing, the market is also out of the trough, the current property market inflection point is a key period for the layout of core assets, seize the era outlet and value scarcity, please lock in the second phase of China Resources City Runxi.