Phoenix Finance "Market Value Observation" produced
Wen | leek zero after
For a long time, the four companies of Gujing Tribute Wine, Kouzi Cellar, Yingchao Tribute Wine, and Golden Seed Wine have been called the four golden flowers of Anhui Baijiu. Among them, Gujing Tribute Wine is the first echelon in terms of performance, Yingchao Tribute Wine and Kouzi Cellar are the second echelon, the two companies have been fiercely competing, and the third echelon is Golden Seed Wine. But in recent years, despite the passage of time, the development of several companies has been very different.
Among them, as a kouzi cellar with a history of more than 2,700 years, in recent years, both in terms of performance growth and market development, it has performed flat, and even has signs of being surpassed.
Phoenix Finance "Market Value Observation" found that in recent years, Kouzijiao has not only experienced a double decline in revenue and net profit, but also has always been difficult to beat the brand out of Anhui Province, which can be described as being happy in Anhui and trapped in Anhui.
Liquor explosion Emblem liquor dragged its legs?
Let's first look at the development of liquor in listed companies, Phoenix Finance "Market Value Observation" statistics since 2015 in Anhui Province and outside the province of some liquor revenue data, from the data point of view, Golden Seed Wine in 2020 compared with 2015 fell by 39.92%, the first three quarters of 2021 revenue equivalent to 46.69% in 2015; Kouzijiao, Yingchao Tribute Wine, Gujing Tribute Wine, Yanghe Shares Four companies in 2020 revenue growth rate is less than 100% compared with 2015 revenue growth.
Among them, in addition to Yanghe shares, several others are enterprises in Anhui Province, and Yanghe shares are Jiangsu enterprises, next to Anhui. The liquor industry's "east does not enter Anhui" is also related to the fierce competition of liquor companies in Anhui, from the overall performance in recent years, but the fierce competition has not brought too much performance growth to local liquor companies.
In contrast, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shede Liquor, Shuijingfang, these Sichuan enterprises, although there is also competition, but from the perspective of performance development, the performance growth of these liquor companies is far more than that of several liquor companies in Anhui. Among them, the revenue of Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao in the first three quarters of 2021 is more than 2 times the revenue of 2015, the revenue of Shede Liquor Industry in the first three quarters of 2021 is more than 3 times the revenue of 2015, and the revenue of Shuijingfang in the first three quarters of 2021 is more than 4 times the revenue of 2015.
In addition, the performance growth of Moutai, Fenjiu and Jinshiyuan also far exceeds that of several liquor companies in Anhui Province.
The liquor industry has a long history of saying that "the east does not enter the Anhui and the west does not enter the Sichuan", mainly because these two regions have always been a major liquor province, and it is difficult for liquor in other regions to enter these two markets.
However, with the development of time, we found that the gap between the two regions seems to be getting bigger and bigger, according to the data of the third quarter of 2021, the total revenue of the four golden flowers in Anhui is less than a quarter of the liquor in Sichuan, and in 2015, the sum of the total revenue of the four companies of Huijiu can account for 41% of Sichuan liquor.
Therefore, whether it is from the perspective of revenue or from the rise and fall of the stock price market value, several liquor companies in Anhui Province are in a state of "dragging their legs" as a whole.
The market value growth of liquor companies is basically proportional to the growth of revenue, fenjiu, Maotai, Shuijingfang, Wuliangye all rose by more than 1000%; the increase in 500%-1000% of Gujing Gongjiu, Luzhou Laojiao and Shede Liquor. The three companies with an increase of 200%-500% are Yanghe Shares and Jinshiyuan; the three companies of Golden Seed Wine, KouziJiao, and Yingchao Tribute Wine have risen by 200%.
The overall liquor concept index has risen by 629.85% since the end of 2015.
Among the Huijiu, only Gujing Tribute Liquor rose more than the plate index, and the increase in Kouzijiao and Golden Seed Liquor was far behind the "hind legs" of liquor growth.
The Kouzi cellar "trapped" in Anhui could not extricate itself
Among the four golden flowers in Anhui, the revenue and growth rate of Gujing Tribute Liquor are not at the forefront of the entire liquor industry, but it is the boss in Huijiu, and the remaining liquor companies are weaker than the liquor market in terms of revenue and growth.
Among them, in 2021, the second echelon of Huijiu also raised the price of the product, ushering in a performance explosion, and the Golden Seed Wine was introduced into the strategic shareholder China Resources Zhantou, and although the Kouzi Cellar also raised the product price, the effect did not seem to be ideal.
It is worth noting that Yingchao Gongjiu and Kouzijiao are listed companies in the same period, and the starting business is also in Anhui Province, so the two companies are often compared by investors.
Yingchao tribute liquor is a strong aromatic liquor, and Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, Jian Nanchun, Shuijingfang, Shede, Gujing tribute liquor are all strong aromatic type, and at present, the strong aromatic liquor accounts for more than half of the sales volume in the market.
Kouzijiao belongs to the concurrent aroma type, and the Helang wine 1912 and Xifeng wine belong to the same category, and the current sales volume of the aromatic type in the liquor market accounts for about 5.66%.
Of course, whether it is a strong fragrance type or a concurrently fragrant type, as long as it is done well, but the "Market Value Observation" column of Phoenix Network Finance found that the development of Kouzi Cellar seems to be in a "dilemma" in recent years.
Kouzijiao mentioned in the prospectus at that time that from 2012 to 2014, the sales revenue of Kouzijiao in the Anhui market accounted for 61.04%, 63.36% and 71.94% of the main business income of the current period, respectively.
However, after the listing, the serious dependence on revenue in Kouzijiao Province does not seem to have slowed down, and the proportion of revenue in the province from 2018 to 2020 to total revenue was 83.39%, 82.08% and 79.13% respectively. Judging from the historical data of Kouzijiao, the highest revenue year outside Anhui Province was 2012, when the income outside the province was 965 million yuan, only more than 500 million yuan less than the income in the province, but the income gap between inside and outside the province has become wider and wider. In the second quarter of 2021, the income outside the province of Kouzijiao was only 467 million yuan, which was nearly 1.3 billion yuan less than the income in the province.
At that time, it was mentioned in the listing prospectus that the main business income realized by Yingchao Tribute Liquor in the Anhui market from 2012 to 2014 accounted for 64.89%, 63.23% and 60.94% of the company's main business income that year, respectively, and the dependence was also very high, but the provincial revenue of Yingchao Tribute Wine in 2018-2020 accounted for 55.95%, 56.23% and 57.89% of the total revenue, respectively. Compared with the beginning of the listing, the proportion of revenue in the province is in a downward trend.
The development outside the province of Kouzijiao is not optimistic, and the development of the province does not seem to be ideal.
The data shows that in recent years, the total revenue of Kouzijiao in 2019 was 4.672 billion yuan, the provincial revenue was 3.835 billion yuan, the total revenue in 2020 fell to 4.011 billion yuan, and the provincial revenue was 3.174 billion yuan, and the decline in revenue in the province dragged down the overall revenue growth. Although the second quarter of 2021 has rebounded from 2020, the level of revenue is not as good as in 2018.
Although the performance of several other golden flowers in the province has also declined in 2020, 2021 has returned to the level of 2019. Among them, the revenue of Yingchao Tribute Wine in the first three quarters of 2021 was 3.180 billion yuan, an increase of 42.62% year-on-year, and the revenue in the first three quarters also increased compared with 2.649 billion yuan in 2019; the revenue of Gujing Tribute Wine in the first three quarters of 10.102 billion yuan was better than 8.203 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2019; and the revenue of 807 million yuan in the first three quarters of Golden Seed Wine was also the highest level in the same period in the past three years.
For the sales strategy in the province and outside the province, Kouzijiao said at an investor meeting that it will further implement channel sinking in the provincial market, improve the coverage rate of channel terminals, and stabilize the "basic disk" in the province; the market outside the province will seize the development opportunities of the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Greater Bay Area, increase the operation of group purchase channels, and continuously expand the "growth surface" outside the province.
However, although the slogan of the mouth cellar is shouted loudly, it is not easy to break the circle.
In contrast, the increasing dependence of Kouzijiao on the provincial market may be one of the reasons why Kouzijiao is "trapped" in Anhui.
The high-end strategy is not satisfactory The increase in sales expenses drags down net profit
In recent years, almost all liquor companies have targeted the high-end market, and Kouzijiao has not been an exception.
Wind data shows that the gap between the high, medium and low liquor business situation of Kouzijiao before the listing is not very large, and since the listing began to promote high-end liquor, the gap between the three-stop liquor has slowly and completely opened.
However, the "Market Value Observation" column of Phoenix Finance found that the overall growth of high-end wine in Kouzijiao in recent years is not optimistic. According to the data, from 2019 to the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue of high-grade liquor in Kouzijiao was 4.423 billion yuan, 3.838 billion yuan and 3.445 billion yuan, respectively.
In addition, Kouzijiao achieved operating income of 2.124 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, an increase of 42.57% year-on-year, down 6.9% from the same period in 2019; mid-range wine achieved operating income of 0.45 billion yuan, an increase of 82.1% year-on-year, down 33.95% from 2019; low-grade wine achieved operating income of 0.43 billion yuan, an increase of 34.55% year-on-year, a decrease of 8.07% over the same period in 2019, and it is not difficult to see that the export sub-cellar is almost a "whole-line decline".
Phoenix Finance "Market Value Observation" also found that since 2019, there has been a significant increase in the sales expenses of Kouzijiao. From 2019 to the first three quarters of 2021, the sales expenses of Kouzijiao were 396 million yuan, 546 million yuan and 495 million yuan, accounting for 8.47%, 13.62% and 13.65% of the revenue in the same period, respectively, saying that it was gradually rising. The sales expenses of Kouzijiao in the first three quarters of 2019, the first three quarters of 2020 and the first three quarters of 2021 were 288 million yuan, 392 million yuan and 495 million yuan respectively, an increase of 36.11% and 26.28% year-on-year.
Among the other golden flowers of Huijiu, the sales expenses of Yingchao Tribute Wine in the first three quarters of 2019 to 2021 accounted for 12.26%, 12.17% and 9.88% respectively; the sales expenses of Gujing Tribute Wine in the same period accounted for 30.57%, 30.32% and 28.74% respectively; and the golden seed wine was 34.17%, 26.03% and 24.21%, all of which were in a downward trend.
Industry insiders said that the increase in sales expenses will bring performance growth to enterprises to some extent, but the sales expenses of Kouzijiao in 2020 did not bring performance growth, but pulled down the net profit, and the net profit for the whole year of 2020 was 1.276 billion yuan, down 26.53% year-on-year. Although revenue has improved in 2021, net profit has not even reached the same level in the same period in 2018.
That is to say, although the sales cost of the Kouzi Cellar is spent a lot, it seems that the corresponding effect has not been obtained.
Shareholders and executives have significantly reduced their holdings and cashed out
The cash-out of shareholders and executives in Kouzijiao has also caused some controversy.
Kouzi cellar mentioned in the IPO prospectus that on April 20, 2008, the original Kouzi Limited held a general meeting of shareholders, resolved to introduce Goldman Sachs as an investor, and deliberated and approved the introduction of Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs Holdings GSCP Bouquet Holdings SRL invested RMB355 million (of which RMB305 million was invested in the company and RMB0.5 billion was paid to the shareholders of the company), and a total of 25.27% of the equity of Kouzijiao was acquired. After that, Kouzi Cellar began to plan for listing.
Finally, Kouzijiao was successfully listed on June 29, 2015, but soon after the listing, Goldman Sachs began to gradually reduce its holdings and cash out.
According to wind data, after the listing of Kouzijiao, Goldman Sachs has reduced its holdings by about 132 million shares and cash out about 4.8 billion yuan, excluding the previous dividends, Goldman Sachs has obtained a 12.5 times return on this investment.
It is worth noting that not only Goldman Sachs operates in this way, but also the executives of Kouzijiao have also reduced their holdings and cashed out a lot.
Since the listing of Kouzijiao, Liu Ansheng, Sun Pengdong, Zhang Guoqiang, Zhao Jie, Zhong Jihua, etc. have reduced their holdings by a total of 15.47 million shares, with a total cash out of about 780 million yuan.
The net assets of Kouzijiao Company up to now are 7.673 billion yuan, which means that the money cashed out by shareholders such as Goldman Sachs and Liu An province from the secondary market has exceeded half of the net assets of Kouzijiao.
In addition, Kouzijiao has also paid a lot of cash dividends in recent years, and from the beginning of listing to the end of 2020, the cumulative net profit attributable to the mother is 7.031 billion yuan, the cash dividend is 3.446 billion yuan, and the proportion of cash dividends in net profit is 49%.
postscript
Recently, the fourth-ranked golden seed wine controlling shareholder in Huijiu will introduce strategic shareholder China Resources Zhantou, and the fierce competition with Kouzijiao has also ushered in a performance explosion, and the huijiu leader Gujing tribute wine has adjusted the price of mainstream products and opened a strategy to seize the price band of 1,000 yuan. At present, although Kouzijiao is shouting to stabilize the "basic disk" in the province and expand the "growth area" outside the province, the actual situation is not satisfactory.
On the one hand, it is difficult to open the market outside the province, on the other hand, the white-hot competition of brands in the province, how to break the situation in the future? The "Market Value Observation" column of Phoenix Finance will continue to pay attention.