This is since the reform in 1998, the mainland's real estate has been in a situation of only rising and not falling, some people say that the house price in 2008 did not fall? After a slight pullback, 2009 ushered in a historic explosion.
To be honest, if the current house price young people do not have the support of their elders, they can buy real estate on their own, which can be said to be very unlikely.
The average sales price in 2021 is 10,218 yuan per square meter, according to the public data of the Shell Research Institute, the average house price of 65 cities in the country is 17,388 yuan per square meter, and the average house price of 4 first-tier cities is 65,000 yuan per square meter; the average house price exceeds 20,000 yuan per square meter in 20 cities; the average house price exceeds 15,000 yuan in 34 cities per square meter; and there are 103 counties and towns with an average house price of more than 10,000 yuan.
The Middle Finger Research Institute also publicly shows that the average housing purchase threshold of the four first-tier cities is 6.17 million, 6.13 million, 5.8 million and 3.59 million; the average housing purchase threshold of the four second-tier cities is more than 3 million, and the threshold for buying a house in 5 cities is 2 million to 3 million; the threshold for buying a house in 9 cities is 1 million to 2 million; and the threshold for buying a house in 8 third-tier cities is 1.05 to 3.13 million. It seems that it is harder to buy a house than to ascend to the sky! According to Zhuge housing data, the national average house price income ratio is 12.9, and the cities with a house price income ratio of more than 30 are Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Sanya, Most of the new first-tier cities and second-tier cities in Xiamen, the house price-to-income ratio is 20 to 30, do not eat or drink, it takes 20 or 30 years to afford a small house. The vast majority of the people buying houses on the market are choosing bank mortgage loans, calculated at the current interest rate, the loan is 1 million, and the interest rate for 30 years is definitely more than 1 million, so that many people who want to buy a house feel powerless!
With the property market losing the concept of "investment", the current crowd of onlookers has become more and more numerous, not in a hurry, has become the consensus of many people, firmly believe that as long as everyone does not buy a house, the house price in 2022 will definitely usher in a "devaluation tide".
More people believe that the current house price is so high, real estate companies are making a lot of money, and the surface developer has become a sinner of high house price.
The formation of high house prices is inseparable from the cost and demand caused, take the newly opened real estate, many people only see the cost of construction and security, and do not see the cost of construction and security, other costs such as land, manpower, management, taxes and fees. And other aspects of the cost, of which land costs accounted for the highest, according to the 2020 national top 100 real estate enterprises development cost report shows that land accounted for 48% of the development cost, of which the high-end real estate accounted for 60% to 70% of the cost, in the sales price, other factors can be almost negligible, in the past two years our construction and security costs and other material costs have risen sharply, in fact, the rise in house prices is not imagined so big, the most critical is the cost of land.
After the implementation of the new regulations on centralized land supply in 2021, it reflects a different state, and the overall transaction data of the first land supply is still very impressive. The second centralized land supply ushered in a dismal end, the streaming rate was as high as 32.4%, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou has been as a large household of soil auctions, the streaming rate is as high as 50%, the average premium rate is only within 15%, 300 cities in the country, the average premium rate is 14.8%. The third soil auction is also not ideal, in 2021, the country's 300 cities, land transfer of 5.62 trillion yuan, down 19% year-on-year. Land is the wind direction indicator of the property market, if the price of land is not ideal, the overall rise in house prices is not ideal, in other words. The price of flour cannot rise, of course, the price of bread can not rise, if the next 2 to 3 years according to this model to push the land, only low is not high.
The myth that house prices only rise and do not fall should be broken! Policy leaves nothing to hide.
Nowadays, the crowd for housing demand is not so much in the past, the overall decline index is beyond the imagination of many people, the data shows that the proportion of housing investment in 2016 is 85%, 75% in 2017, less than 40% in 2020, into the second half of 2021, the main force of house buying is mainly around just need and replacement, the current real estate market has lost the support of investors, just need buyers alone can support the entire real estate market?
According to the central bank's public data show that the housing ownership rate of domestic urban residents has reached 96%, the average household is 1.5 units, the family with two houses accounts for 31%, the family with three or more houses accounts for 10.05%, the family with two sets of housing can be understood as just needed use, then the family with three or more houses is really just just needed?
Bring the entire data into the survey report, showing that the domestic real estate vacancy rate is about 22.3%, but the number of vacant real estate units has gone to 85 million sets, the entire domestic real estate market is in oversupply, in the process of market regulation and control in 2021, the shortcomings before the market quickly cold have all been exposed.
The policy is powerful enough
Today's buyers are mainly dealing with the real demand caused by "still live and not speculate" has penetrated into the hearts of every ordinary person, in the past we believe that every policy introduced by the state is to accumulate strength, the next wave of house prices rise, so in 2008, 2014 is also the same, even 2016, the result of house prices is not the same rise, 2021 to introduce policies, will not be as simple as before The answer does not seem to be so simple.
In 2021, the property market regulated expenditure 652 times. The three red lines are aimed at real estate enterprises with net assets and liabilities greater than 70% after excluding pre-collection; the debt ratio is greater than 100% and the cash short-term debt ratio is less than double. Stepping on one red line has interest, the total amount of debt can not rise by more than 10%; stepping on two red lines has interest, the total debt cannot rise by more than 5%; stepping on three red lines has interest, the total debt cannot rise; even if the total interest-bearing liabilities of enterprises that do not step on the red line cannot rise by more than 15%, housing enterprises are required to return to the prescribed range before June 2023.
On January 1, 2021, the central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Establishing a Centralized Loan Management System for Banking Financial Institutions, which restricted the upper limit ratio of real estate enterprises and personal loans. It also regulates various policies such as limited purchase, loan restriction, price limit, limited sale, and reference guide price for second-hand houses. The most important thing is that the property tax that the people have been waiting for for a long time is finally determined to come, and this policy will inevitably face a sell-off for families with multiple properties, and a price reduction of 10%, 20% or even 30% may be possible.
20210 data show that the number of second-hand housing listings in 60 key cities across the country has exceeded 5 million sets, the number of second-hand house listings in Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Beijing, Wuhan, Chengdu and other cities has exceeded 100,000 sets, and Chongqing has broken through more than 200,000 sets of destocking cycle has been extended to nearly 20 months, and the number of second-hand housing listings is still rising, and the number of listings in third- and fourth-tier cities that are not counted is even higher, because many investors have to choose to "cash out". Everyone sells at the same time, that is an excellent opportunity for buyers to bargain, take out the dragon slaying knife to cut 10%, 20% of the transaction is possible, in the eyes of many investors can protect the capital is already good.
Rich real estate enterprises can not hold back, in order to return funds, there is nothing that can not be done, although some cities have issued a "limit order", but real estate companies choose to send fine decoration, send furniture appliances, send parking spaces, return the down payment to obtain greater capital return.
For the development of real estate insiders gave their own views, the United States, Japan real estate bubble bursting lessons, the regulation of the property market is becoming more and more mature, the market will not crash, but real estate does not mean that it will not depreciate.
Some heads of real estate companies said that house prices could not fall by more than 30%, otherwise all domestic housing enterprises would face "closing their doors", and banks also said that they could only afford 20% of the space. For home buyers, house prices have risen several times in recent years, why is there so much price reduction? Developers take the land early to support the cost of land is very low, they earn a lot of money, even if the remaining listings are discounted sales are as positive as each other's own arguments, only the market finds a balance of interests.
In any case, the overall housing prices in the real estate market in 2022 are still in a relatively weak state, and it is almost impossible to have the situation in 2020 and the first half of 20210, and more will continue the real estate in the second half of 2020.