Today's a-share was affected by the decline in the peripheral stock market, the opening of the collective low open, after the opening of the three major indexes into differentiation, the Shanghai Composite Index in the financial and cyclical driven by the low opening shock upwards, the ChiNext index in the theme of the drag of the low open low, maintaining under the water shock operation. However, due to the failure to continue the rise in weights, the overall low opening weak shock remained in the morning session, and the midday closing was mixed.
After the opening of the afternoon session, the bulls became strong again, and the three major sectors such as insurance, banking and securities were pulled up, directly driving the Shanghai Composite Index to break through the 20-day moving average, rising to the 20-day moving average, and returning to the differentiation shock operation. The three major indexes once again entered a sideways state, until today's A-share close, the major indexes entered a state of differentiation, the index is still up and down, the sector and individual stocks appear in the general rise and fall mode, the whole day is in a low open weak shock market.
Today's closing of the three major indexes up and down, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.66%, the Shenzhen Index rose by 0.27%, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.46%; individual stocks rose mostly, there were 3061 rising stocks, 1447 stocks fell; individual stocks rose and fell, the super funds throughout the day mainly speculated state-owned assets cloud, data centers, real estate and coal, as well as telecommunications operations and property management, etc., on the contrary, the concept of silicone suffered from capital selling, and concept stocks such as salt lake lithium and lithium ore fell ahead. The industry rise and fall is very small, structural market opportunities.
In fact, today's A-share low-open shock differentiation throughout the day, there are different ups and downs, and the general rise and fall of plates and individual stocks are mainly caused by the polarization of weighted plates and theme stocks, which are analyzed according to the actual disk.
First: first of all, analyze the factors of the index's rise and fall, today's a-share Shanghai Index is significantly stronger than the ChiNext board, and the Shanghai Composite Index independent Shenzhen market two major indexes opened low and rose, which is completely dependent on financial and cyclical stocks to stir up the disk.
For example, the three major financial sectors at the opening of the morning session pulled up a wave of protective indexes, and the three major financial sectors at the opening of the afternoon session pulled up a wave of driving the index, while the cyclical stocks maintained a strong trend throughout the day, which is the main driving force for the Shanghai Composite Index to rise.
Because of this, today's cycle and financial iron heart to stabilize the index, do not allow the Shanghai index to fall, with the stability of the main board of the Shanghai, the entire disk will naturally gradually stabilize, there will not be too much fluctuation, long and short is more balanced.
Second: at present, the A-share stock funds are in the game, the stock funds are in the position exchange operation, so that the funds will be one-sided phenomenon, the theme stocks with capital speculation will unilaterally rise higher, the stocks without capital speculation will remain lying at the bottom, and the theme stocks will enter a comprehensive differentiation.
Theme stocks have a clear differentiation of strength and weakness, such as state-owned assets cloud and data center led the rise, silicone concept, some resource stocks, etc. suffered from capital pressure, which means that theme stocks entered a structural trend, and the rise and fall were completely determined by funds.
Therefore, the theme stocks are differentiated, and the overall shock is mainly weakened, which is why the Shenzhen Index maintains a horizontal oscillation throughout the day, and the ChiNext Index cannot rise, and the main real factor is lying under the water.
To sum up, today's A-share index is up and down, the sector and individual stocks are generally rising and falling, behind the weight plate is the full protection of the plate, the theme stock into differentiation and other factors.
How will A-shares go next Monday?
According to the actual trend of a share this week, in addition to Monday's killing, the next four trading days are to maintain a weak shock, although there is an oversold rebound, but the rebound is very weak, has not been dragging down the weak consolidation line trend, so it is certain that the next Monday A share trend will not be too understanding.
Excluding the impact of peripheral stock markets and weekend news, it is predicted that the three major A-share indexes will continue to open slightly lower next week, and the weighted sectors will also come out to protect the market after the opening, and fully stabilize the Shanghai Composite Index and not allow downward adjustment. As for the two major indexes in the Shenzhen market, there will also be no big fluctuations, maintaining a narrow range of shocks near today's index, which means that the trend of A shares next Monday is still a weak shock, maintaining a sluggish and weak shock market.
Why will it be predicted that the trend of A shares next Monday will maintain a weak shock, mainly around the 20-day moving average back and forth oscillation, according to the recent market characteristics of A shares, there are mainly the following two major support points.
First: At present, the biggest reassuring pill of a-share is mainly three forces, namely finance, cycle and liquor, these three forces are the strongest bulls supporting the main board of the Shanghai Securities, and these three weighted stocks are always taking turns to support the index.
The most typical is this Monday to Friday, why a share can maintain shock stability, although the market is weak, but it has not been able to fall, but also can not rise, it is obvious that the weight plate is resisting the protective disk.
Since the weight plate is so desperate to protect the disk, in order to delay the time to adjust, not by smashing the disk to adjust, so according to this speculation, next Monday the weight plate will definitely continue to protect the disk without pulling the disk, and the current situation is not allowed to fall.
Second: the current narrow range of A-shares is the main theme, mainly due to the early relatively long period of adjustment, the entire market has entered a downturn, the stock market downturn is mainly affected by funds and sentiment.
For example, the funds are a game of stock funds, and the stock funds are indeed very limited, and it is impossible to make the A-shares strong next Monday; the market sentiment is even more depressed, and many investors do not want to participate in the current market.
In general, due to the current defects in A-share funds and sentiment, if these two major supports are lacking, the stock market will inevitably enter a downturn, the long-short game is relatively calm, and maintaining the shock is the best result.
Through the above analysis, this week's A shares roughly maintain a weak shock operation, according to the market situation in recent trading days, the forecast next Monday A share trend is not ideal; after all, the current A shares are more balanced, the direction of rise and fall is still uncertain. Similar to today, although the bulls are slightly stronger, they have not been able to reverse the weak market on the disk, so it is boldly predicted that the trend of A shares next Monday will also maintain the main shock.
Bulls surround but do not attack, bears are weak and do not smash, in the face of this embarrassing trend, which side will win is not yet known, under the preconditions of uncertainty, the best operation is to wait and see the changes, ready to move forward and backward freely.