Qu Yanli | wen
On Shanghai Metro Line 1, a beautiful photo of Cai Songsong appeared on the poster, and in the rumbling car, the light flickered on and off, and some financial slogans were written next to it: "Persistence is the most important" and "Posture should be chosen".
The original origin of this form of outdoor delivery was the huge billboard of Hui Tianfu Fund at Gate 6 of Lujiazui Metro. After being imitated by peers, by the second half of last year, the billboards of various fund companies were spread to the core subway stations, airports and even buses, which were lively and lively.
Everyone in the circle knows that Sino Analytica Fund is not the kind of company with a huge advertising budget, and Cai Songsong is not a famous person who has money to throw out. It is said that when the marketing department asked that there was only one offline launch opportunity, the release of new funds, or the holder report, Cai Songsong did not hesitate to choose the latter.
This holder report, the full name is "Sino Analytica Growth Investor Trading Behavior Insight Report". Among them, the trading behavior data of 6,795,053 holders of Sino Analytica Growth Hybrid are counted, and a number of conclusions are derived: (1) The length of the holder's holding time shows a certain positive correlation with the holding income. (2) "Fixed vote" is happier. (3) The average monthly trading frequency has decreased, and the proportion of profitable people has increased significantly. (4) The post-90s are the main force, but from the perspective of income, ginger is still old and spicy.
The real Cai Songsong is extremely sober in the world. No one can just casually turn purple. Whether it is the success of a person's investment or the success of his career, in the final analysis, it is the realization of cognition and the advancement of consciousness. Cai Songsong is not accidental.
1
There is an old saying in the industry: "Mo came to the peak, Mo turned away at the trough." "This is a paradox in behavioral finance.
Statistics from the "Sino Analytica Growth Investor Trading Behavior Insight Report": From February 21, 2019, as of June 30, 2021, more than 60% of Sino Analytica Growth holders are profitable.
Statistics show that the profit probability of those who rise and reduce their positions is higher than that of those who fall down, and it is not advisable to "chase up and kill down".
The per capita return of the fixed investor group is the highest, at 12.37%, while the per capita income of short-term killers is the lowest, only -1.48%.
Among the fixed investment groups grown by Sino Analytica, the proportion of positions held within 1,000 is more than 50%, and the average yield is 4.37%; the average yield of the fixed investment population with more than 1 million positions is even as high as 40.94%.
What this report wants to convey to holders is how to make money in volatility, including four principles: (1) reduce the frequency of trading; (2) be wary of the "pendulum effect" ;(3) adhere to long-term fixed investment; (4) learn to take profits flexibly.
2
According to relevant sources close to Sino Analytica Fund, in April 2019, at the internal seminar of Sino Analytica Fund, Cai Songsong had a clear headline: "Do a sharp spear for technology investment."
In the short history of public funds for more than 20 years, Cai Songsong should be regarded as one of the fund managers with the fastest rise. A Shenzhen technology fund manager once said to this writer: "A hundred years later, posterity has written the story of China's capital market, Cai Songsong will be in this era to leave a name, doubt whether there is a high-level person behind him."
As a technology fund manager, a colleague in Shanghai recognizes Cai Songsong: "With a final-game thinking, if you firmly believe that China Semiconductor has a bright future, his concentrated and long-term thinking is correct."
There are also many people who deny and attack Cai Songsong, and the most questioned is "why". Debut two or three years, the scale of two or three tens of billions, Cai Songsong's fame, in the end "what". The loudest doubts are especially among senior fund managers over the 70s. According to Hemingway's iceberg theory, only the tip of the iceberg floats on the surface of the water, which shows that there are not a few slanderers in the industry.
The author had a brief telephone exchange with Cai Songsong himself, and he was very emotionally calm about the noise of the outside world. He is on the phone, a voice without burden, full of vitality, simple and happy, in contrast to his network image with a little mysteriousness.
No matter how much discussion there is, Cai Songsong is already a phenomenon-level figure in the fund industry, which is an undeniable fact.
3
Cai Songsong is the legendary "man who grew up on hot search". His first hot search was because of the sharp retracement of the market on the day, but he flourished and earned income for the holders, but then the second hot search was a sharp retracement of the net value.
Sino Analytica's net worth fell from mid-July 2020, and then sideways until mid-May 2021, with 10 months in between.
Cai Songsong once told the media that the time when he was under the most pressure was in the fourth quarter of 2020. After the flat, the subscription slowly came in, the number of holders surged, but in a short period of time, the net value did not improve, and the doubts became louder and louder.
During that time, Cai Songsong's way of evacuating stress was by running. He began to examine himself: Is the investment framework right? Does the drawdown cause permanent damage?
He concluded by thinking: "China's technology stocks are far from finished, and the decision-making is correct."
By May to July 2021, semiconductors have a very important wave of growth. The net value of Sino Analytica Growth Blend rose by 70%, and Cai Songsong's idea was verified.
One day in June, when the net worth finally surpassed the highest point of July 14, 2020, Cai Songsong sat in his office, which was the most relieved day in his heart. He thought that as long as the holder can always accompany him, no one should lose money. A lot of people come, a lot of people go, there are gains and losses, then this is the market. Cai Songsong was very happy and did not disappoint everyone, which was "a very good explanation".
Cai Songsong once mentioned to the author that these 10 months have been the greatest tempering for his heart. Only through personal experience will you understand what it feels like to endure loneliness and insist on being yourself no matter what others say. For those hot searches and doubts, he also slowly realized that this is the part you need to bear, and it is also the natural reaction of everyone.
"As long as everyone can make money, even if they earn a penny." This is what Cai Songsong has said many times.
He has also told many media that investment is the simplest and purest thing, and the most important thing is only "industrial investment" itself. He knows what he wants and what path he's on. The outside world was disturbed, and he did not care.
In 2020, Sino Analytica's growth mixed scale expanded rapidly, from 6.697 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 32.776 billion yuan at the end of the year.
4
Ant Wealth Community often commented: "Manager Cai never changes shares, the positions in each quarterly report are like that, I can do it!" 」
A strong contrast is that Cai Songsong is a long-term investment method of the prosperity track, which is the investment logic he has expounded in public information many times.
Cai Songsong's underlying logic: "The target enterprises invested by the fund are the highest quality enterprises that can support China's hardcore technology." In other words, as they grow, China's hardcore technology rises.
Other stocks may be two or three times a year, but he thinks it may be a flash in the pan. "It's easier said than not." This is Cai Songsong's idea. Constantly moving can be an emptiness, on the contrary, always being yourself is the most difficult thing.
The conventional thinking of technology stocks is to track orders and value current profits, revenues, and cash flows. Cai Songsong is not, he values the track itself, the technical moat and the product barriers. "This is the soul of whether technology stocks can grow up."
Cai Songsong adopts a long-term investment approach, while semiconductors have a strong cyclicality, and the two interact, resulting in Sino Analytica's growth being known for its volatility. A relevant person told the author that the management of Sino Analytica Fund had discussed the purchase restriction, and Cai Songsong refused. He believes that "volatility is the foundation of Sino Analytica's growth." To be a market-oriented fund, come as you want, and leave when you want.
At the same time, Sino Analytica Fund insiders also revealed that when the style is more and more well known to the holders, the frequency of Sino Analytica's growth redemption is decreasing and stabilizing a lot.
Cai Songsong's evaluation of his investment framework is the word "pure". What he wants to do is not a transaction, but value discovery, long-term holding and companionship.
Resume determines ideas. Cai Songsong is a doctor of chip design from the Junior Class of the University of Science and Technology of China and a doctor of chip design at the Institute of Computing Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and entered the industry at the age of 25, engaged in chip design and market strategy.
In short, he knows how the semiconductor industry works.
So, no matter how the market trend changes, he believes in himself. It is reported that Cai Songsong's self-positioning is "semiconductor industry expert", and as far as investment is concerned, no one may know more professionally than him.
5
After Cai Songsong took over in 2019, Sino Analytica's growth announcement showed that it gradually increased the allocation of the semiconductor industry until the first quarter of 2020, when almost all semiconductors were fully stocked, the proportion of multiple stocks was almost full, and the top ten heavy positions were highly concentrated.
There was an uproar in the industry. Most of the peers laughed: "You see, such a structure, in the end, I don't know how to die!" 」
In terms of traditional combination management thinking, Cai Songsong can be said to be deviant, he is like Zhang Wujie, who is surrounded by the top of the light. At that point in time, Cai Songsong's "extreme investment" subverted the industry's decentralized, moderately balanced portfolio management concept.
From the results, according to the data of Sino Analytica Fund, in 2019, Sino Analytica Growth Hybrid recorded a yield of 95.44%, and the performance comparison benchmark for the same period was 25.03%, ranking 4/415 in the Galaxy Securities Partial Stock Fund (stock upper and lower limit 60%-95%) (Class A), ranking among the best in the market, which is precisely the best performance of Cai Songsong. The performance continuity is also good, with yields of 39.10% and 22.50% in 2020 and 2021 respectively, and the performance benchmarks in the same period are 8.47% and 1.30%, respectively.
Cai Songsong met the best "heavenly time".
Before he took over in February 2019, tech stocks had been languishing for three years. To exaggerate a little, when it comes to the discoloration of technology stocks, almost no one follows the set of rules of technology stocks. But Cai Songsong was in office, fearless, and he put aside the market to look at the industry itself, which coincided with the beginning of a bull market in technology stocks. In the spring and summer of 2019, the 4G inventory was cleared and marched towards 5G, and the science and technology war began. Cai Songsong wrote that two-wheel drive is the application innovation and domestic substitution brought by 5G, and the total amount and share are increased.
At that point in time, Cai Songsong realized very early that semiconductors have a bright and clear future in China.
The long-term trend of China's technology industry is becoming more and more clear, which is the essence of the long-term investment method of the prosperity track that can be self-consistent. Cai Songsong believes that 2022 is a big year for China's semiconductors to make a real breakthrough from 0 to 1, and the story has just begun.
6
There is no doubt that Cai Songsong's successful route has been repeatedly discussed by various fund companies. Many people want to copy, but no one can do it anymore, and there has been no "new energy track version of Cai Songsong".
Everyone reflects on hindsight: the fund industry is extremely involuted, as a fund manager, or the performance is extremely outstanding, or the personal resolution is very strong, or the scale of tonnage is large enough, otherwise how can it break through?
This should be something that Cai Songsong thought clearly when he said at the sino analytica fund's internal seminar in April 2019 that he was "a sharp spear for technology investment". His human sobriety lies in this, and only if he is special enough will others see you. Do the same thing as everyone, why not buy other head companies? You must have originality in doing things.
It is reported that Cai Songsong's own personality is to do things either not to do or to the extreme, never between 0 and 1.
Whether it is investment or career, in the final analysis, it is the realization of personal cognition. Cai Songsong is a representative of the public fund prosperity track model. He has an initial heart, accompanied by the growth of Chinese science and technology, and caught up with a good era, 40% in personal cognition and efforts, 60% rely on the times and luck.
It is difficult for ordinary people to imagine that on the cusp of the storm, Cai Songsong experienced the torment in his heart. In the face of overwhelming doubts, he was able to persevere. In real society, people who are pure and strong in their hearts are more likely to succeed.
After Cai Songsong, there are "four scumbags of public funds" in the jianghu. Scumbags also flash someone to love, perhaps, this is human nature, the peak experience is what human nature chases. In one day, the net worth soared by 8%, a feeling that can never be forgotten.
On the Internet, Cai Songsong's personality is "black and red", young people like him, hold him, but also ridicule him, scold him, he has many fans. More than half of Sino Analytica's growth holder structure is 20-30 years old.
The semiconductor track is so volatile, there are still so many holders to support him and trust him, this should be the happiest thing as a fund manager.
【Sino Analytica Growth Hybrid Fund】Sino Analytica Growth Hybrid Securities Investment Fund was established on March 10, 2009, and was renamed from Sino Analytica Growth Equity Securities Investment Fund. From October 16, 2010 to November 16, 2017, Liu Honghui served as fund manager; from April 4, 2015 to November 16, 2017, Scott served as fund manager; from November 17, 2017 to June 20, 2018, Li Jia served as fund manager; from June 13, 2018 to May 13, 2020, Wang Chuanglian served as fund manager; and from February 20, 2019 to the present, Cai Songsong served as fund manager. The net value growth rate of the Fund from 2016 to 2021 was -24.22%, -12.80%, -31.83%, 95.44%, 39.10% and 22.50%, respectively, and the benchmark yield of the performance comparison for the same period was -8.63%, 4.85%, -22.93%, 25.03%, 8.47% and 1.30%, respectively. (Source: Sino Analytica Growth Hybrid Fund Periodic Report; the fund's performance benchmark has been changed to the CSI 800 Index yield since August 12, 2020×70% + CSI Composite Bond Index yield ×30%).
【Sino Analytica and Xin Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund】Sino Analytica and Xin Flexible Allocation Hybrid Securities Investment Fund was established on May 10, 2018, and was transformed from the expiration of the first capital protection cycle of the original Sino Analytica and Xin Guaranteed Capital Hybrid Fund. From May 10, 2018 to November 19, 2019, Lu Longkai served as the fund manager; since March 14, 2019, Cai Songsong has served as the fund manager. The growth rate of the Fund's net worth from 2018 to 2021 was -31.70%, 48.39%, 39.34% and 18.18%, respectively, and the benchmark returns of performance comparison in the same period were -11.85%, 23.23%, 17.68% and -0.60%, respectively. (Source: Regular report of Sino Analytica and Xin Hybrid Fund; the benchmark for the performance of the fund after transformation is CSI 300 Index×60% + CSI Full Bond Index ×40%).
【Sino Analytica Innovation-Driven Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund】Sino Analytica Innovation-Driven Flexible Allocation Hybrid Securities Investment Fund was established on June 18, 2015. From June 18, 2015 to May 22, 2021, Wu Bojun served as fund manager, and since May 22, 2021, Cai Songsong has served as fund manager. Effective November 18, 2015, the Fund has divided into two types of fund shares, A and C. The net value growth rates of Class A fund shares from 2016 to 2021 were: 2.67%, 3.78%, -2.64%, 9.04%, 6.24%, and 36.27%, respectively; the net value growth rates of Class C fund shares from 2016 to 2021 were: 2.47%, 3.59%, -2.75%, 8.98%, 6.08%, and 36.08%, respectively; the performance comparison benchmarks for the same period were:-5.64%, 12.53%, -12.69%, respectively. 23.23%、17.68%、-0.60%。 (Source: Sino Analytica Innovation-Driven Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund Periodic Report; the fund's performance benchmark is the CSI 300 Index yield×60% + CSI All Bond Index yield ×40%).
Songsong Cai, Ph.D. He has worked in the Institute of Computing Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tianjin Feiteng Information Technology Co., Ltd., Huatai Securities Co., Ltd., and joined Sino Analytica Fund Management Co., Ltd. in November 2017 and has served as a researcher. He has been the fund manager of Sino Analytica Growth Hybrid Securities Investment Fund since February 2019, the fund manager of Sino Analytica Hexin Flexible Allocation Hybrid Securities Investment Fund since March 2019, and the fund manager of Sino Analytica Innovation-driven Flexible Allocation Hybrid Securities Investment Fund since May 2021.
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