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Won't the incumbent president "really leave"? What will happen to "neutral" countries after the change?

author:New Observations on the Silk Road

Turkmenistan continues to nominate presidential candidates!

In addition to Serdar, the son of the current president of Turkmenistan, Kurbanguli Berdymukhamedov, on February 15, local time, the Turkmenistan Agricultural Party nominated Agayan Bekmeladov, deputy governor of Mare Oblast, as a candidate for the highest position in the country.

Won't the incumbent president "really leave"? What will happen to "neutral" countries after the change?

Agayan Buick Meradov graduated from the National Institute of Architecture and Civil Engineering in 1995 as a professional civil engineer. He has worked for various district governments in Mare State, the Mahtumkuri Youth Organization and the Trade Union District Committee in The Vikilbazar District. Since April 2017, he has been the Deputy Governor of Mare State.

In his remarks, Bekmeradov said he was aware of the great responsibility entrusted to him by the party and would make every effort to live up to that trust.

So far, two of the three Turkish parties – the Democratic Party, the Agrarian Party, the Industrialists and the Entrepreneur Party – have nominated presidential candidates. The Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs is also expected to nominate a presidential candidate.

According to the Russian satellite network reported on the 15th, Vladimir Yevseyev, director of the SCO Eurasian Integration and Development Department of the CIS National Research Institute, said that the closed nature of the political system makes it impossible for people to clearly understand what is happening in Turkmenistan.

Won't the incumbent president "really leave"? What will happen to "neutral" countries after the change?

But experts believe that Turkmenistan is currently facing economic challenges that determine the decisions of the country's leaders on foreign policy.

According to the 2021 data released by the Turkmenistan media, the loan burden of many key sectors of Turkmenistan's state-owned economy is relatively heavy.

In March 2021, during a meeting with members of the government, President Bieldemkhamedov of Turkmenistan stressed the need to repay the foreign debt in a timely manner.

Experts believe that the current debt burden of the country's economy is a serious destabilizing factor.

The debt crisis has driven a shift in foreign policy

"The socio-economic situation in the country is difficult right now. All available resources are used to repay debt, including the modernization of the gas industry and the development of infrastructure. In this case, it is difficult to ease tensions in society. Therefore, it can be assumed that Kurbanguli Berdymuhamedov did not 'really leave'. Yevseyev said.

According to him, it is unclear in what form the current president will take control of the situation.

Won't the incumbent president "really leave"? What will happen to "neutral" countries after the change?

In the new configuration of the state leadership, the most likely foreign policy vector is to retain the line of the old policy, but it will gradually shift to favor cooperation with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and, in the future, with the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

"With regard to the countries of the former Soviet Union, Turkmenistan's foreign policy will remain continuous, multilateral and neutral. However, economic situations and tensions in the region, such as afghanistan, are pushing Turkmenistan to take decisions. I would not be surprised if it was decided to become an observer state of the Eurasian Economic Union, or even to the CSCE, which is something that could happen in the future. Yevseyev said.

The end of the neutrality policy?

Given that the Taliban came to power last fall, Yevseyev said the situation in Afghanistan is also pushing Turkmenistan to cooperate mutually beneficially within the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSA.

"It was the Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan that changed Turkmenistan. Now it is difficult for Turkey to remain neutral, its armed forces cannot fight Against Afghanistan, and it must cooperate with others anyway. Yevseyev said.

Observers have noted that the policy of neutrality that Turkmenistan has been pursuing in recent years has gradually deviated from "neutrality".

For example, in the autumn of 2021, Turkmenistan participated for the first time in a council summit in Istanbul.

In April 2021, Serdar Berdymukhamedov, the son of the President of Turkmenistan, participated in the activities of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Committee in Kazan.

"As many experts have said, 'self-isolation' is now becoming an issue in Turkmenistan. China, Russia and the United States are actively working in the region. Turkmenistan is in some way becoming the subject of policy in other countries. Close relations have directly affected the national economy, so now they are actively developing economic ties, especially with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to establish mutually beneficial relations of electricity exports. The state will change, it no longer depends on the personality of the leader. Kyrgyzstan political scientist Dennis Berdakkov said.

Yevseyev said that over time, Turkmenistan will begin a cautious shift in power "from the top down" and the leadership will move in a more open direction.

"I bet the top-down shift and change is slow. However, it does so in stages and maintains strict rules for a period of time. If you are too hasty, you will also throw the country into chaos. He pointed out.

Source: Silk Road New Observation Compilation