directory
01 What exactly is China's house price
02 Buyers don't believe in Chinese house prices
03 Project companies' decision-making errors usually come from macroscopic sources
04 It is unreasonable for a sick person to take medicine for the whole family
05 Chinese house prices do not exist at all
About 5800 words, it takes 14 minutes to read the full text
01
preface
Before the article starts, I want to say a few digressions.
Just after the Spring Festival, it was reported that Sunac Southwest Regional Company was split into three pieces. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the Yunnan-Guizhou region, and the Guangxi business, which previously belonged to The Southwest Company, were merged into the South China region. The former southwest regional company Shang Yu stepped down as the helmsman and was transferred to the headquarters of the group, this transfer is up or down, do not do analysis, everyone tastes.
At the end of last year, we analyzed the first project of the former Southwest Regional Company after moving from Chongqing to Chengdu, Sunac And Yasong, and published two articles:
"The customer sold a set a year, what happened to Zhihe Yasong?" 》
"Sunac to Heya Song, worth money after a thousand years"
In the article, we clearly expressed our point of view: it is a very ridiculous thing to graft "Song culture" into projects to increase the value.
Now it seems that for the first time since its inception, Sunac has been the first in the region to leave the class, coupled with the emergence of such stupid and naïve marketing methods as "Song Culture", indicating that the original Southwest Regional Company at that time was almost completely out of control in internal management.
Lao Zhu said that Song Huizong played culture to death, and Sun Hongbin played culture not far from death. I didn't expect that the first person to be played was Shang Yu. Of course, Shang Yu's class has nothing to do with our article. But this shows that the lancet of the property market has a basis for writing articles, not for black and black. Earlier, we also said that the price of Zhonghai Huanyunju was high, and eventually the project was sold at a reduced price at the opening of the market, which can also prove this.
The lancet of the real estate market, to see a doctor to prescribe medicine, although it may not be able to open a good pharmacy, nor may it have the craft of reviving the dead, but at least in the process of seeing a doctor, we are professional.
Well, back to the point, let's talk about today's content: Chinese house prices.
During the Chinese New Year, there are no more than three topics at the dinner table: showing off yourself, showing off your children and discussing Chinese housing prices.
For showing off, in order to make the scene less embarrassing, everyone will generally make a qualified hug. For China's housing prices, relatives and friends are full of tongues, different views, each with its own reasons, and no one can convince anyone.
At the dinner table, although there is no nutrition, it also raises a thought: when we discuss Chinese housing prices, what are we discussing?
02
What exactly is Chinese house prices
To understand the previous question, we must first figure out what is China's housing prices.
We believe that the most reasonable explanation for "Chinese house prices" should refer to the average price of house prices across the country. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the "Chinese house price" in 2020 is 9860 yuan / ㎡.
Looking at this data alone, you will think that the pressure to buy a house is not great, and the Chinese people are very happy. Obviously, this is not the case, if any expert dares to say so, it is light to be scolded to the point of bloodshed. Although it is often said that the data will not deceive people, the average of "Chinese house prices" we think is deceptive.
Why is that? Mathematically speaking, the average is susceptible to extreme values, which is what we often call "averaged". From our understanding, the average price of house prices is meaningless, and there is no such thing as "Chinese house prices" in the whole country.
So we say it bluntly - China's housing prices, no matter how high, are not afraid! Of course, the reverse is also true, China's housing prices, no matter how low, do not believe!
First, the average is meaningful only for "flowing" things.
For example, beef, if Shenzhen sells 50 yuan a pound, Lanzhou sells 30 a pound, although the family lives in Shenzhen, but in today's logistics so developed, you can choose to buy beef from Lanzhou online, most of them can also be free of shipping. For example, cars, Shanghai sell 100,000, in Chengdu may sell 150,000, perhaps the supply of Chengdu will increase, dealers make more money. The same goes for vegetables, fruits, clothes, etc. Therefore, we believe that the goods and things with great liquidity are meaningful by the average, higher than the average price, can not buy, can choose other channels, the price may be lower, can provide directionality for the supply trend.
Second, the average is meaningless to things that cannot be "flowed".
The house, the most fundamental means of production is land, and land can not be "flowing", is "fixed", which is the essence of real estate can not be averaged.
For example, Chengdu land sells for 20,000 yuan / ㎡, Hegang land only sells 500 yuan / ㎡, but you can not get Hegang land to Chengdu to sell, developers want to buy absolutely cheap land, can only go to Hegang. For buyers the same, Beijing's house price is 100,000 yuan / ㎡, Guiyang's house price is 8,000 yuan / ㎡, if you want to buy cheap, you can only go to Guiyang.
There are many similar examples.
For example, the average income of Chinese, in 2020, the prime minister said that the average annual income of Chinese is 30,000 yuan, but there are 600 million people with an annual income of less than 10,000 yuan. For example, Ma Yun and I are worth hundreds of billions on average, but Ma Yun can't give me money in vain, so I'm still a poor B; for example, the average height of Chinese, in 2020, the male is 169.7cm, the female is 158cm, and the feelings of southerners and northerners when they see this data are completely different; The average height of Yao Ming and I is close to two meters, even if Yao Ming is willing, it is impossible to divide the height among me, so the short man is me or me.
In our view, the reference value of Chinese house prices for individuals is almost negligible, and one sentence shows the point of view: "Chinese house prices" do not exist at all. In other words, in the real estate industry, the impact of macro data on individuals is minimal.
What is going on, we analyze from the three perspectives of home buyers, developers and policy makers.
03
Home buyers
Don't believe in "Chinese house prices"
Many buyers always like to pay attention to some experts, such as Ren Zeping, Ma Guangyuan, and Ye Tan, during the time when they buy a house, to see what they say. But in fact, these experts are more likely to sit in Beijing, analyzing macro data and deriving some conclusions, which does not mean much to each specific buyer.
For example, China's housing prices have risen for 20 consecutive years, is this valuable for the northeast region? Is there value for a city like Hegang? For a simple example, if this month, the first-tier cities generally rose, resulting in a rise in China's house prices by 200 yuan / ㎡, experts who analyze macro data can draw the conclusion that China's house prices are rising. But does it make sense for you to live in a fourth-tier city where house prices have fallen for 24 consecutive months? If you immediately buy a house in situ because of the conclusion that "China's house prices are rising", you will only regret it, according to the current trend of thunder, it is estimated that you will not be able to wait for the house.
For example, in the past one or two years, the real estate market in the country has been particularly difficult, and the price has been falling, making people less and less confident, but this does not mean that first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou have no opportunities, and these cities will always have opportunities.
Japan's real estate bubble is so severe that house prices have not changed in 20 years, but if you bought a villa in Tokyo 20 years ago, it is still great. Now China's economy can be said to be the most developed in the world, but the world's most expensive housing prices are not in China, the world's richest man is not in China, and there are many poor people in China.
In addition, Chengdu has also been one of the hot cities in real estate in recent years, but it is not the whole city that is rising, and the difference between the north and the south is obvious. Ten years ago, six thousand bought the north of the city, and now it may be more than 10,000, but bought in the south of the city, now it is more than 30,000. The rise in housing prices in Chengdu is mainly driven by the south of the city, in addition to inflation, it can be said that the house prices in the north of the city have hardly risen. Looking at the south of the city, the increase in each plate is also very different, and Washington and South Lake cannot be compared with Xinglong Lake and Qinhuang Temple.
As a home buyer, don't pay too much attention to the macro data, because it is really useless. Paying too much attention to and believing in macro data will only make wrong judgments, the timing of buying a house is not right, the timing of selling a house is not right, the light is broken, and the heavy will affect family relations and even life.
04
Project development
Bad decisions often come from macro data
For developers, paying too much attention to macro data will mainly lead to land acquisition errors, positioning errors, and pricing errors.
First, the wrong land
If you believe in macro data too much, the project company may take the market data and tell the boss, you see, the transaction volume and transaction price in this area of the city are so good, we are particularly confident in this land! The boss who is far away from home is deeply aware, but as the progress of the project deepens, he will find that it is more and more wrong. At this time, the project company will throw the pot to the market market is not good.
In recent years, Chengdu has attracted a number of foreign developers such as Rongxin, Rongqiao, Yuzhou, Longji Taihe, etc., but due to the lack of in-depth understanding of the Chengdu market, they have been deceived by macro data, and they have made some fatal mistakes when taking land, such as taking land on the ring line, resulting in most of these foreign developers leaving the market, and very few can gain a firm foothold in Chengdu. On the issue of land acquisition on the ring line, we have made it very clear in the article "Li Ka-shing, the developer who pit half of the dead".
Second, the positioning error
When positioning, if you refer too much to market data, the following problems will occur.
First, prices are expected to be affected by surrounding prices. For example, the average price of surrounding projects is 20,000, so the price of new projects is expected to be around 20,000. This has just been made very clear, the relationship between single project pricing and market conditions is not large, and it is self-limiting to do so;
Second, we will be conservative in our products. After the price expectation is determined, the form and positioning of the product are actually set almost the same, and the probability will be highly homogenized with the various competitors in the survey, and fall into the competition of the Red Sea.
Third, it invisibly increases the difficulty of sales and marketing. A region has so many customers, the cake is so big, caught in homogeneous competition, sales and marketing to be competitive, you must pay more energy, and sometimes even need some luck.
Chengdu
The superposition that is now popular in the Chengdu market is a manifestation of the above three problems. On the one hand, developers are forced to do stacking in order to balance land indicators and corporate profits. But on the other hand, it is difficult to say whether there are developers, because market research has been done, and the data reflects that the supply and demand of stacking are very high, and it is necessary to follow the trend to do stacking. Now, the market has given the answer, doing stacking will really die ugly.
So what do you do to jump out? Jobs once said that market research is meaningless. Before Apple came out, everyone probably wanted a phone that was more resistant to falling and lasted longer; Ford's boss also said that before the car came out, asking everyone in the world would only tell you that he needed a better carriage. Therefore, we believe that in the current real estate red sea, project positioning should jump out of the competition of types and focus more on how to create new categories.
There are actually many such examples, such as the West Faction of China Railway Construction, the Tianxi System of German Merchants, the Luhu of Wanhua, and even the coco system of that year, all of which have a unique set of product logic, which makes them jump out of the street battles, gain the recognition of buyers, and also achieve good sales results.
Third, pricing errors
In our view, the pricing of a single project and the average market price are not necessarily related.
First, house prices are not determined by simple supply and demand. I believe everyone understands this, assuming that there are 100,000 people in Chongqing who want to buy a house this year, while there are only 50,000 people in Shanghai, it does not mean that the housing prices in Chongqing will be higher than in Shanghai. On the contrary, the housing prices in Shanghai are higher than in Chongqing, because the 50,000 people in Shanghai who want to buy a house have a higher purchasing power than the 100,000 people in Chongqing. Why do Shanghai home buyers have higher purchasing power? This is determined by political, cultural, economic, environmental and other factors, which are also the constituent factors of housing prices, and purchasing power is only the ultimate embodiment.
Chongqing
Then, the trend of house prices in different regions cannot be generalized. We take the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as examples.
Shanghai is a bellwether for housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta region. It is because the development of Shanghai has been very mature, and is closely linked with the surrounding areas, the development of Shanghai's economy can drive the development of the surrounding economy, and the surrounding cities have become the interface for Shanghai buyers to spill over, so shanghai's house prices have risen, the house prices in the Yangtze River Delta will rise, Shanghai's house prices have fallen, and the house prices in the Yangtze River Delta will follow.
Chengdu cannot be the driving force for housing prices in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration. Because Chengdu is still in the stage of vigorous development, it does not have the driving capacity like Shanghai for the time being, but it is absorbing the resources and talents of surrounding cities, just as the so-called "grass does not grow under the tree", the rise in house prices in Chengdu does not mean that the house prices in Mianyang and Nanchong will rise. Of course, after Chengdu develops to a certain extent, it will play a strong driving role in the surrounding cities.
Finally, there is no shortage of rich people in any city. If there is a developer who goes to Ya'an to repair a luxury housing project, 100 sets, priced at 30,000, as long as the product and pricing match, we believe that the same can be sold out, because in Ya'an, we can definitely find 100 customers with bidding ability. This has nothing to do with the average market price of less than 10,000 in Ya'an. Another example is the housing price in Xi'an, looking at the whole country is only the midstream level, but the price of second-hand houses in Xi'an Zhongda International No. 9 can be sold to 80,000-100,000, at least more than 98% of the national projects.
To sum up, paying too much attention to macro data will bring four harms to developers:
One. The company's efficiency is impaired
Taking the wrong land, repairing the wrong house, setting the wrong price, any mistake is fatal, will lead to the project can not be sold, and eventually let the company suffer economic losses and reputational losses.
Two. The boss lost confidence
The owner is busy and unlikely to be specific to the management of a particular project. When the project company reported, all kinds of situations were so good, why couldn't they sell? This will make the boss lose confidence in the project company and even the real estate industry, either to kill the project company, or to change careers and not to do real estate.
Third, the careers of professional managers have been hit hard
For professional managers, a decision can affect the life and death of a project. Excessive trust in macro data will make wrong judgments, resulting in poor results, distrust of bosses, distrust of the industry, and heavy blows to careers.
Fourth, employee growth and income are not guaranteed
Some people always say that failure is the mother of success, and although valuable experience can be gained through failure, if you have not even seen what kind of success it looks like, then how can you achieve success in the future? Therefore, a failed project will slow down the growth rate of employees. Of course, the company's performance is not guaranteed, and the income of employees is naturally not guaranteed.
There is also a thing that can also reflect the harm that macro data brings to developers. Recently, when I was chatting with a developer, he was complaining that group companies, when assigning tasks to regional companies, just look at macro data, completely without considering the specific situation. As a result, regional companies believe that the group is in disarray, and the group believes that regional companies are inactive.
05
Policy development
It is unreasonable for one person to take medicine for the whole family when he is sick
A grain of dust of history that falls on an individual is a mountain.
In the past, there were many one-size-fits-all policies that were formulated from a macro perspective, and the starting point was certainly good, but it would hurt individuals and enterprises by mistake. For example, in the past, everyone ridiculed the most, Shanghai was sick, and the whole country took medicine. For example, the three red lines in the past two years have also mistakenly hurt some enterprises that are serious about building houses. Of course, with the implementation of one city, one policy, this kind of accidental injury has been greatly reduced.
Shanghai
But also take into account that a city, different areas also have different situations. In the case of Chengdu, the reduction of the volume ratio in the middle and excellent areas is to make the city healthier and more stable and sustainable development, but it also accelerates the decline of the north of the city. To take an extreme example, the downgrading of the north of the city is like letting a college student who has just left school and has neither money nor too strong ability to buy a villa immediately. How is this possible?
For developers, price limit + capacity reduction, not only the living environment of small developers is harsh, but even large developers are bitter. Most of the energy is spent on accounting, there is no energy to study the product, which leads to more and more speculative psychology of developers, developers, home buyers, our city, will be hurt by this.
I believe that the formulation of policies will become more and more perfect, and can take into account the reasonable rights and interests of more people and enterprises.
06
You can't just look up at the stars
Also look down at the road
Through the analysis of home buyers, developers, and policymakers one by one, we can say with certainty that "Chinese house prices" do not exist. Because properties do not have "liquidity", the average has almost no reference value. If you are superstitious about macro data such as "Chinese housing prices", there is a high probability that it will lead to wrong decisions.
Of course, we should think more about why so many people are superstitious about big data. We understand that this is because we were born in China and have the big picture of a big country. This is a good thing most of the time, but the more the big picture, the less it will stand in its own interests, because these thinking angles are from top to bottom, but for buying a house, taking land, policy formulation, these issues involving personal interests, but also need to think from the bottom up, pay more attention to individual situations.
For home buyers, understand that "Chinese house prices", like GDP, are a statistic for you and have no practical significance. When buying a house, start from your own needs and individual interests, pay attention to focusing, do not look at "Chinese house prices", look less at "Chengdu house prices", look more at "plate house prices", especially look at the house prices within one kilometer of the project you want to buy.
For project developers, any decision should not be decided by macro data, but should be tailored to local conditions, bottom-up considerations, pay attention to what buyers are thinking, and spend more energy on product innovation and product creation.
For policymakers, taking into account the big picture is a must and a prerequisite, but it is not also possible to consider the individual in the appropriate situation, do not be one-size-fits-all, and leave some appropriate space.
Dear readers, what are your views on "Chinese housing prices"? Feel free to let us know in the message area.