Why do the average horse gambler make mistakes?
Because the odds are largely influenced by "horse race winner predictors", who every day publish the horses with the hope of winning in the local newspaper, "Timekeeper Joe" or "Cowboy Jim" will give their predictions for the top three before each race. Their motivation for giving the top three predictions is completely different from the one you want to make money with, with "Joe the Timekeeper" and "Cowboy Jim" hoping to pick the horse with the highest probability of winning, so they can remind their boss when signing a contract that they have a 31% chance of picking the right winning horse in the past year. This is a very high accuracy rate for forecasters. However, because the salaries of horse racing forecasters have nothing to do with whether they win money for their clients, "Joe the Timekeeper" will still lose money to his own clients.
There's also a misconception about the odds given by the racecourse, where every day a racecourse employee writes down the odds for each racehorse, but that's not the actual price you bet on. He is just a physically and mentally exhausted employee overworked, and these prices merely reflect the employee's expectations of how the public will bet.
He wouldn't say, "I believe that racehorse No. 1 has a 20% chance of being the first, so I'm giving it odds of 41." ”
He would say, "A horse like this with a similar performance, the public will give it odds of 41." ”
The two statements are very different, but the public that is betting on them does not fully understand the difference between the two sentences. It is always believed that if a horse's odds are lower than those given by the racecourse staff, it means that the opportunity may come. If the racecourse staff gives 41 odds but the actual odds are 21, the public will think "it's time to act, they definitely know the inside story".
The "they" here are fictional characters that many horse betters believe actually exist — smart analysts who know the outcome of a race, and who bet today when a horse's odds are lower than what the racetrack staff had given them.
When Christo first came to the racecourse, he believed that such a person did exist. But the longer he stayed at the racecourse, the more he realized that no such person existed.
However, we cannot underestimate the "wisdom of the masses" of horse fans. In the United States, the best horse racing predictors of each year cannot achieve the same results as horse gamblers. The best horse predictor selects 30 percent of the winning horses each year, but the public always picks 33 percent of the winning horses.
Why do ordinary people, mixed with drunks, lunatics, and who don't know how to pretend, do better than the best horse racing predictors?
This situation also appeared in the game competition show "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" 》。 When confronted with difficult questions, competing people can ask for help through three different ways of asking for help, and they can ask their friends, experts, and crowds. After studying the program in recent years, it has been found that the accuracy of the answers given by the masses is higher than that of experts.
While these findings are a bit incredible, there are many cases where the odds of winning increase if many people work together to solve the same problem. That's why choosing the horse with the most likely chance of winning isn't a great trick and why selecting the winning horse won't ultimately make you profit from it.
I felt this first-hand at the Paris Racecourse. I've found that even if you succeed in guessing a few times, if the odds don't work, you'll still lose. And throughout the process, there seems to be no situation where the odds are very favorable to us. So, in a bunch of us, only one person was lucky and won small; the others all lost, and of course did not lose much.
To beat the horse fans and take advantage of their big opportunities to make mistakes, it is often when they are fanatical. Christo told one such story.
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