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At the beginning of 2022, the real estate market seems to continue the decline in the second half of last year - Kerry data shows that in January, the TOP100 housing enterprises achieved sales of 525.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%; during the Spring Festival, the previous wave of returning to the hometown to buy a house disappeared, except for a few first- and second-tier cities, the market was bleak; Yu Liang judged that "real estate entered the black iron era"...
All this seems to indicate that the real estate industry in 2022 will still not be good. However, this is only one side of it – the side that pessimists see and believe in. But there is another side to the market. In fact, under the gloomy clouds, there was the sound of ice cracking. Simply put, XiaoyangChun is brewing, and everyone must be prepared.
The data since the beginning of the year has not been so bad
Transactions in some cities have begun to pick up
Many people may ask: The transaction in January was so miserable, Vanke's sales performance decreased by 50.19% year-on-year, why is XiaoyangChun on the road?
However, this current, almost mainstream view, is problematic. Of course, there are many data that prove that the market is cold, but the warmth has also begun to show.
In fact, the January data is not bad
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the transaction area of commercial housing in 66 cities in the country in January 2022 was 17.11 million square meters, down 40% year-on-year, and the sample cities selected by other institutions were slightly different, but the results were similar.
The magnitude of the decline looks scary. However, don't forget that the base for January 2021 is very high. If you look at the longer cycle, the absolute value of the volume in January 2022 is close to the average of the same period in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
In addition, from the shell new house index, the price index in January 2022 was the same as that in December last year, and the trend of continuous decline in new house prices has turned to a stable one.
The decline in second-hand houses is also narrowing rapidly. In January 2022, the second-hand housing price index of Shell 50 cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, the number of falling cities was further reduced, the first-tier and second- and third-tier cities with better fundamentals were rapidly repairing, and the second-hand housing price index in Beijing, Shanghai, Foshan, Suzhou and other cities rose steadily in January.
The market and corporate performance in January was poor, and a big factor was the shrinking supply. Due to excessive pessimism, holidays, and internal turmoil (such as personnel optimization, organizational structure adjustment, etc.), in January and during the Spring Festival, housing enterprises did not launch a marketing offensive as in previous years.
Among the key cities monitored by the Middle Finger Research Institute, 29 cities added just over 10 million square meters of new supply in January, down 43% year-on-year and 60% from December last year. As a result, transactions rose in some cities last December and fell again in January.
Since the beginning of the year, Shanghai's trading volume has soared (which will be discussed in detail below), which has a lot to do with its large number of listings. In the sixth batch of 57 new projects in Shanghai that entered the market in January this year, as many as 12 luxury housing projects exceeded 100,000 square meters, and the supply of 81,830 new houses hit a new high. On the eve of the Spring Festival, a large number of new projects entered the market, which paved a good foundation for the substantial increase in the volume of the Spring Festival.
Some people may say that other cities are predicting that the market is not good to reduce the supply, but the prejudgment of housing enterprises is not necessarily accurate, otherwise there will not be so many housing enterprises thunderstorms in recent years.
The recovery in some cities is even more pronounced
Before and after the Spring Festival, whether housing enterprises or intermediary stores, most of them will be on holiday, only a few people are left on duty, the Spring Festival holiday everyone has to visit relatives and friends, and the listings are also small, so the property market will go down every year before and after the Spring Festival.
However, there are still some cities, even during the Spring Festival, have come out of a wave of market.
Shanghai is the fiercest. Last year's Spring Festival, Shanghai's new housing transaction volume was less than 20,000 square meters, and from January 31 to February 6 this year, 103,000 square meters were traded, up 646% year-on-year, which can be described as a huge increase. According to the number of units, during the Spring Festival, a total of 505 new houses were sold in Shanghai, up more than 300% year-on-year!
Beijing's second-hand housing market is also quietly fermenting - in January this year, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions of 13288 sets, although still 23.29% less than in December 21 (data from the Construction Commission), but the average price of second-hand housing 58993 yuan / flat, up 4.3% from December.
▲Data source: Settlers
Considering that Beijing was affected by the repeated epidemic situation in Fengtai and other local areas and the Spring Festival holiday in January this year, this achievement has not been easy (in December last year, the online signing of second-hand housing in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 30.7% and 19.6% respectively).
In fact, since November 2021, with the policy to pick up, the market wait-and-see sentiment has eased, the proportion of price increased housing has risen for 3 consecutive months, to January in Beijing's second-hand residential price adjustment, the proportion of price increased housing is 16.1%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the previous month (data from Zhuge Housing Data Research Center), the phenomenon of "price jumping" has re-emerged...
The same goes for Tianjin, next door to Beijing. Although in January, Omi Kerong raided Tianjin, and the sales offices of many properties in Tianjin reopened at the end of January. However, various "offers are fully withdrawn". Second-hand houses are also generally similar. The transaction cycle is significantly shortened, and the bargaining space is reduced.
Cities such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Suzhou (transactions increased by 25% year-on-year during the Spring Festival) are not repeated. These are cities with a strong vane significance. Even in a city like Zhengzhou, where the market has been bleak for a long time, some real estate people told Ming Yuanjun: There are so many customers who consult houses after the Spring Festival! these...... All show that "Xiaoyang Chun" is preparing for the momentum.
Central and local, policy continues to exert force
Pull supply and demand back on track
The sluggish market situation of real estate since the second half of last year is largely due to the excessive force of the policy. Therefore, after September last year, the policy began to correct, and the accelerated decline of the market was contained.
Although it will take time to return to the original track, whether it is Beijing or Shanghai, the volume and price have gradually stabilized, which is largely due to this. And the policy is still continuing to exert force and fermentation.
First, the money supply continues to rise
8.5%, 9.0%, 9.8% – M2's growth has continued to widen since november last year, and on February 10, the central bank released Financial Statistics for January, showing:
In January 2022, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year; RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; and the scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
All three indicators are better than market expectations, reflecting the monetary policy and fiscal policy to support stable growth. It is the landing of the previous "monetary policy toolbox to open a little bigger to avoid credit collapse", which is very important to stabilize the confidence of all walks of life, including real estate...
▲Source: Central Bank, Mingyuan Real Estate Research Institute
The second is to benefit the continuous release and stimulate demand and supply
According to the statistics of shell research institute, in the past 10 years, there have been two market bottoming processes, namely "2014-2015" and "2020-2021".
These two times are at two low points in the growth rate of the national commercial housing sales area. In the process of market bottoming, it is accompanied by a series of favorable policies, pulling the growth rate to stop falling back to stability. The transmission path of favorable policies in terms of credit is the same: first from the credit interest rate, then the adjustment of the relevant policies of the provident fund, and finally to the commercial loan.
Today, the three are happening almost simultaneously. In January 2022, the country issued 66 real estate-related favorable measures, up 57% year-on-year, including-
Interest rate cuts: After the policy correction in September last year, in October alone, more than 20 cities across the country lowered mortgage interest rates, of which 14 cities fell for the first home. This year, the number of cities with lower interest rates has increased further. For example, a number of state-owned banks in Suzhou cut the interest rate of the first home loan to 4.95%, down 0.75 percentage points from the interest rate of 5.7% at the end of 2021; the interest rate of the second home loan can be as low as 5.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from 6% at the end of last year.
The restrictions on provident fund loans have been relaxed, and from the previous low-energy cities, they have spread to high-energy cities: Ningbo has introduced a provident fund loan policy that benefits many families; starting on February 1, Fuzhou applied for a pure housing provident fund loan for the second time, and the down payment ratio was adjusted to 40%. In addition, the second application for a housing provident fund loan can be applied for in the month after the first settlement (originally required 12 months)...
Commercial loans: Due to the sufficient amount of mortgages, the lending cycle of banks is greatly shortened, generally in 1-2 months, and the fastest can be shortened to 1 week, which has boosted the confidence of some home buyers and market activity.
The above is the situation on the demand side. The supply side - housing enterprises are also recovering.
After the high-level shouting last year, the state-owned enterprises were the first to gain financing, and then gradually expanded to stable private housing enterprises, such as Country Garden, Longguang, Jinke, etc. Recently (February 11), Longhu and Xuhui also obtained a registration notice of 5 billion yuan of medium-term notes.
According to the prospectus of Longhu, the registered amount of bills is 5 billion yuan, the upper limit of the issuance amount of this period is 3 billion yuan, and there are two types of issuance, one is 3+3 years, the second is 5+3 years, and the credit rating of the main body is AAA.
According to the prospectus, the registered amount of the notes in this period is 5 billion yuan, the amount of the current issue is 2 billion yuan, and the issuance period is 5 years, with the issuer's option to adjust the coupon rate at the end of the third year and the investor's option to sell back.
As we all know, this round of crisis, the thunderstorm of large-scale housing enterprises has caused a huge negative impact on the industry. However, at present, there has been a situation in which the housing enterprises of the early "thunderstorm" have gradually resumed sales and resumed operations, which is of great exemplary significance for the industry. This is inseparable from the pull of the policy.
From the perspective of the market, the support policy has 3-6 months from landing to really exerting its power. The support policy has been underway since September last year, so the power has been revealed in leading cities.
Third, promotion will drive running volume
Recently, the filing price of a luxury housing project in Guangzhou exceeded 140,000 / square meter, which triggered a hot discussion in the market, because none of the new projects in Guangzhou in 2021 had a filing price of more than 100,000 / square meter, and the average price of second-hand houses around the project was basically 100,000.
However, as far as Ming Yuanjun's survey is concerned, at present, housing enterprises generally continue the trend of exchanging price for volume in the second half of last year, and most of them will not raise prices in the future. Even if there is, it will also be accompanied by some preferential housing purchase policies in order to run a wave of volume in Xiaoyang Spring. This will also stimulate the demand for housing and accelerate the arrival of Xiaoyang Spring.
Summary
In the same half a glass of water, optimistic people will say, "There is still half a glass of water," and pessimistic people will say, "How come there is only half a glass of water." We must be optimists, because pessimists may be right, but only optimists can succeed. Or more accurately, optimism and readiness are the only way to succeed. Because, whether the industry has reached the era of black iron is still debated, but the era of lying down to make money has passed.
The first half of 2022 is the peak stage of the debt maturity of housing enterprises, the financial pressure of housing enterprises is still large, with the recovery of sales market, it is expected that in the second half of the year, the cash flow pressure of housing enterprises will gradually ease. Of course, the deleveraging process in the real estate industry will continue for a long time. In the future, if you want to continue to develop, of course, you need to adjust the debt, operation and other models, but all this must be based on being able to survive the current high pressure, do not fall before the dawn. Hurry up and grab Xiao Yangchun and work hard.