War is only a means, not a goal. These unfamiliar words such as the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Kosovo, nato, etc., made all Chinese unforgettable in the 1990s, and at the same time made young people who grew up in peacetime realize that war is not far away from us.
Geographically, European countries are scattered, without the vast moat of the United States or the vast geographical depth of the Soviet Union, and they must unite if they want to sit on an equal footing with their big brothers. In fact, this idea arose as early as the Middle Ages, and was called the european unification trend.
Since Germany was a defeated country in World War II, de Gaulle's France became the main organizer of the European integration movement. Due to the bad reputation, the 1.0 version of the European Community, led by France, did not bring the British to play with. In 1961 and 1967, Britain applied for membership in the European Community twice, both rejected by de Gaulle. It was not until after de Gaulle stepped down in 1969 that the British "three gu maolu" did not get what they wanted. Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece and so on have joined one after another. So far, the European Community has expanded from the first 6 countries to 12 countries.
With the expansion of the European Community and the increasing frequency of trade, inter-state economic integration has been put on the agenda. The United States took the opportunity to become angel investors and support countries that did not meet the standards to join the European Community. The United States is so enthusiastic that it is by no means a conscience discovery, but to deal with the old enemy of the Soviet Union, by the way, to sell its own dollars, and then to control the lifeblood of Europe at a deep level.
In the 1990s, with the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the "member states" of the extended family have re-"found a way out", is it completely Westernized, or is it the same as Yugoslavia, choosing to take the middle way? Eastern European countries have basically chosen to completely Westernize, and the United States intends to disintegrate Yugoslavia. The EUROPEAN Community opened its arms with joy and upgraded to the EU version 2.0. The United States supported the European Community in order to resist the Soviet Union, and now that the Soviet Union has fallen, there is no reason for the European Union to remain strong. In 1998 the European Central Bank was established to issue a unified currency, the euro (officially introduced on 1 January 1999). The US empire is running inwardly, is this unclear to compete with the US dollar? Dare to challenge the hegemony of the us dollar, that must teach the EU such a lesson, that is, the Kosovo War.
Where is Kosovo? Located in the Balkan Peninsula in southeastern Europe, Kosovo is bordered by Serbia to the east and north, the Republic of Macedonia to the south, Albania to the southwest, and Montenegro to the northwest, with a population of about 2.2 million, more than 90% of which are Albanians (Albanians), and the rest are Serbs (Serbs), Montenegrins, etc. The Balkans have always been powder kegs, and ethnic and religious contradictions are complex.
Due to historical reasons, the Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo have long been at odds, and the Albanians have demanded the establishment of the "Republic of Kosovo" and sought secession from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; Some Albanian extremists have formed the "Kosovo Liberation Army" and planned a series of attacks and assassinations, gradually escalating violent conflicts. The federal and Serbian authorities have taken tough repressive measures and have sent large numbers of Serb troops and police forces to Kosovo. Beginning in February 1998, the situation on the ground in Kosovo deteriorated dramatically.
Both the United States and Europe support Kosovo's independence, but there are differences in the process and modalities of independence. The United States advocates hasty independence, holding that "with regard to the issue of time, it is better to solve it early than later." Europe wants to join both Serbia and Kosovo into the EU and resolve Kosovo's independence in a moderate manner. On February 6, 1999, under pressure from the United States and NATO, representatives of the two sides of the Conflict held peace talks in Rambouillet, near Paris, based on a plan drafted by U.S. Special Envoy Christopher Robert Hill. The main elements of the programme are: respect for the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, a high degree of autonomy for Kosovo, the withdrawal of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia troops from Kosovo, the disarmament of the "Kosovo Liberation Army", the formation of a new police force proportional to the local population to maintain law and order, and the implementation of the agreement on the guarantee of NATO's multinational force to Kosovo.
Ethnic Albanians insisted on the eventual march towards independence and were reluctant to disarm; the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia did not agree with Kosovo's status as an autonomous republic and opposed the entry of NATO troops into Kosovo. On 18 March 1999, ethnic Albanian representatives signed the agreement, but the Serbian side refused to sign it. On March 19, 1999, NATO issued an ultimatum to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. On March 24, 1999, the Western countries led by the United States, under the banner of humanitarianism, led NATO to bypass the United Nations and launched an air strike code-named "Allied Forces" (also known as the Kosovo War) against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
Financial markets are free and open, fighting wars on Europe's doorstep, and international capital is of course going to safer places other than Europe. During the war, France and Germany repeatedly demanded that they invest in ground offensives and make quick decisions to reduce capital outflows. However, the United States deliberately delayed the pace of the ground offensive and bombarded the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia slowly for 78 days. In two and a half months, the euro went from 1:1.1 to 0.9:1. As of March 2000, more than a trillion U.S. dollars of European assets had poured into the United States, and $2,000 trillion had flowed to Hong Kong.
NATO not only carried out 24-hour uninterrupted bombing of military targets in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, but also spared civilian facilities such as bridges, railways, highways, factories, television stations, communication systems, and power systems, causing huge losses to people and property; it even frantically launched 5 precision-guided missiles and "mistakenly shot" the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia, resulting in the death of 3 journalists, the injury of more than 20 diplomats, and the serious destruction of the premises.
On 9 June 1999, REPRESENTATIVES OF NATO and Representatives of Serbia signed a specific agreement in Macedonia to end the war. On June 20, 1999, NATO officially announced the end of its bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Operation Allied airstrikes officially ended. The Kosovo War ended in the defeat of the Serbs.
The Kosovo War was a typical non-contact engagement in which neither of the belligerents fought at close range on the battlefield. The Western countries, led by the United States, used absolute air superiority to strike at the weak Frying Union and force it into submission by force.
U.S. Financial Operation "Three Axes"
What is the most powerful weapon of the 21st century, is it an aircraft carrier, or an atomic bomb? None of them, it's a financial war! It is a war without smoke of gunfire, and it is more brutal, more bloody, soft knife killing without blood! After the Kosovo War, the small days of the US empire did not last long. In April 2000, the Internet bubble burst in the United States. In 2001, there were financial frauds and 9/11 incidents of large companies such as Enron, and the US economy fell into a deep recession. The EU is looking at an opportunity to raise interest rates to welcome international capital hedging. The only means the United States can take is to wage war, to wage war continuously, to control the oil in the Middle East militarily, to anchor the dollar with the oil of the Middle East, and to use the dollar to plunder the world's wealth and establish the global hegemony of the United States.
The flow, flow and flow of the US dollar are the three most critical elements of financial hegemony, which are well-documented "cards". We can also decompose these operations of the US imperialists into three stages: quantitative easing, dollar interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions, and sheep shearing.
Stage 1: Quantitative easing
The Fed issued a large number of dollars, which flowed into the world in the form of loans. At this stage, the supply of dollar money was sufficient, interest rates were low, various companies borrowed a lot to expand, and the market economy was in a false boom. The market is characterized by five characteristics: a rising stock market, a rise in real estate, an increase in corporate indebtedness, a falling bond market, and a weak dollarization. Stocks and real estate will accelerate their rise during this period, and the yield will outweigh the government bonds and time deposits;
Stage 2: The dollar raises interest rates and shrinks the balance sheet
When there was a bubble in the stock market, real estate, and increased leverage in corporate debt, the Fed began to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet to drive the dollar back to the United States. The dollar, which was scattered outside of quantitative easing, began to return to the United States, the dollar became stronger, and the US debt became more popular. Since the dollar is the world's currency, the cost of obtaining dollars in other countries has increased, and banks have to issue higher interest rates and raise interest rates along with them.
Interest rises, mortgage and car loan repayment pressure increases sharply, people have no money to buy, buy and buy, corporate liquidity is tight, the funds in stocks will flow to the bond market in exchange for low risk, the stock market will fall and the bond market will rise, and the market prosperity will no longer be. The Fed shrinks its balance sheet even more severely, and the money lent to the bank by quantitative easing is recovered and written off, which means that the landlord's family (bank) has no surplus grain, and you can't borrow grain (money) no matter how high the interest rate is. The stock market and real estate bubble burst in large numbers, the market was depressed, and the national economy entered a period of recession.
Stage 3: Sheep shearing
The United States has more than 10,000 mutual funds, 3,000 hedge funds, with nearly $5 trillion in assets, and is the main force in the financial markets around the world. When a large number of companies in a country fail or go bankrupt, American capital or financial speculation companies act as saviors, entering the stock markets and real estate of other countries to buy real estate and stocks at very low prices and carry out bankruptcy restructuring. This kind of low-cost leak picking is commonly known as "shearing sheep". In the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea were all sheared by American capital, and their wealth shrank sharply, returning to the pre-liberation period overnight (more covertly, the United States will also enter the country's financial sector through the IMF, under the banner of saving a certain country's economy, and set very harsh loan conditions before economic assistance can be carried out, such as lifting certain restrictions and opening up markets to foreign countries in certain business areas, etc.).
Since 1982, there have been 6 more pronounced rate hikes in the Fed's history:
First round: 1983.3-1984.8, interest rate hike background: early stage of economic recovery; benchmark interest rate raised from 8.5% to 11.5%.
Second round: 1988.3-1989.5, interest rate hike background: rising inflation; benchmark interest rate raised from 6.5% to 9.8%.
Third round: 1994.2-1995.2, interest rate hike background: inflation panic; benchmark interest rate raised from 3.25% to 6%
Fourth round: 1999.6-2000.5, interest rate hike background: Internet bubble; benchmark interest rate raised from 4.75% to 6.5%.
The fifth round: the rate hike cycle is 2004.6-2006.7, the background of the rate hike: housing bubble; the benchmark interest rate is raised from 1% to 5.25%.
Sixth round: rate hike cycle is 2015.12-2019.6, interest rate hike background: inflation concerns; benchmark interest rate raised from 0.25% to 2.25%-2.5%
See what the rules are? Is it not the Narrowing of the US interest rate hike, and the confidence is seriously insufficient. It is no wonder that the U.S. Treasury debt has now exceeded $30 trillion, and there are many places to spend money, but the amount of money that can be exported to other countries to earn foreign exchange is decreasing. In order to cooperate with the Fed's interest rate hike and siphon the global dollar back to the United States, the United States will certainly create geopolitical crises everywhere, so that wars, riots, riots, and good fishermen will profit from the world except the United States. China's economy and society are stable, the harvest is not moving, and the sickle of the United States has once again turned to Europe, this time Ukraine.
Ukraine has a territorial dispute with Russia. Russia enlisted crimea and controlled eastern Ukraine. After the signing of the Russian-Belarusian integration agreement, Russia put forward conditions in the direction of Ukraine to the US-led NATO. The United States did not agree, and Russia forced the Eu and Ukraine to compromise. If Ukraine and the EU cannot compromise, they will choose non-peaceful means to resolve homeland security concerns.
Ukraine initially said it wanted to fight Russia to the death, but Zelenskiy found that the United States had no intention of taking the lead. When war broke out, it was Ukraine that was destroyed, and the United States had nothing to lose. At that time, European funds will flow into the United States, and the purpose of the White House will be achieved. On the other hand, if the United States directly intervenes in the war, Russia will definitely threaten with a nuclear bomb, and then make international capital feel that the United States is more dangerous than Europe, and will the funds flow into China or stay in Europe? Zelenskiy immediately jumped out again and said that the probability of war between Russia and Ukraine was very low, and he asked me to give me evidence.
Inflation pressures in the United States are high, with the January 2022 CPI still as high as 7.5% despite the revised parameters; if the Fed can "match" the war when the Fed raises interest rates, european funds can quickly flow back to the US market under the influence of the war. So the president of the United States personally took command, lobbied European countries to jointly deal with Russia, and returned without success. Germany, out of commercial interests, refuses to exacerbate contradictions. The French president, out of the interests of Europe as a whole, firmly opposed the war in Ukraine. Without the support of France and Germany, it will be very difficult for the US-led NATO to set off terrifying waves.
What Russia wants is to prevent NATO from continuing to "expand eastward", France and Germany hope that Europe will not be chaotic, Ukraine hopes to "borrow" to regain lost land, or join NATO in the trend, leaving the United States to want to gain more benefits.
Large-scale nuclear war is unlikely to break out, and small-scale conflict friction is not enough to divert attention. The Russians don't want to fight, the Ukrainians don't want to fight, and the Europeans don't want to fight. Just the two farthest away from the United States, Japan and the British Yankees clamor every day, desperately trying to fool Ukraine into fighting Russia, otherwise he will attack you on the 16th! To this end, it is the withdrawal of its own citizens, and the announcement of preparations for sanctions.... Britain's "Daily Mail" even published the so-called "Russian invasion route" in a serious way.
Rumors of a Russian-Ukrainian military conflict have gradually increased, European stock markets have begun to fall, the dollar has begun to rise, US treasury interest rates have fallen, and everything is moving in the direction that the United States most wants to see. As a result, Russia decisively stopped its feet and turned around to give the United States a big slap. Yes, the Russian exercises ended and went back to base. As a result, Russian stocks soared, Europe soared, U.S. stocks rose sharply, U.S. bond interest rates rose, the world was full of joy, gold, dollars, crude oil dived!
On February 15, the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Russian Duma) passed by an overwhelming majority a resolution asking President Putin to recognize the Wudong region of Donetsk and Luhansk as "independent states" at the national level, with 368 Duma deputies (with a total of 450 seats in the Duma) voting. The vote resulted in 351 votes in favour, 16 against, and one abstention.
In 2014, Crimea passed a referendum on "independent annexation to Russia." Two days later, Putin signed an order and an agreement to accept Crimea. The provisions adopted by the Russian Lower House (Duma) this time still need to be deliberated by the Federal Council (the Upper House) and authorized by the President to take effect. Will Putin sign an order recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk? At least not now, but will hold it as a "card" in the hand, depending on the relationship between Russia and Ukraine and the situation of the game between Russia and the West, and "play" it in a timely manner.
At any time, under any circumstances, do not have illusions in anything, the United States can stir up Europe, the Middle East and South America, and it is bound to covet China. In recent years, China has planned ahead, taken the initiative to deleverage, and strengthen supervision, laying a solid foundation for financial security and stability. There is a saying that "it is not that the time has not come", those groundless provocateurs will eventually pay their due price in the future.