Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Gao Wenxun
Image source: Times Finance Photography
The reduction of mortgage interest rates in many banks around the world has quietly begun.
On February 16, Times Finance learned from a number of local banks in Nanjing that the interest rate of the first home loan generally fell below the "6" prefix, bank of China, bank of Jiangsu, minsheng bank, postal savings bank, etc. were between 5.7-5.8%, and Guangfa Bank had dropped to 5.6%.
"The interest rate of the first home loan for each property in our bank is different, some are slightly higher, some are slightly lower." On February 16, a credit manager of a branch of the Bank of China in Nanjing told Times Finance that compared with before the Spring Festival, the mortgage interest rates of various banks have been reduced, "and now the amount is relatively sufficient, and compared with before, the speed of lending has also accelerated significantly." ”
In fact, since the central bank disclosed on January 20 this year that "the 1-year LPR is 3.7%, and the LPR for more than 5 years is 4.6%", the expectation of the reduction of bank mortgage interest rates has been "well known".
Mortgage interest rates have been cut in general
According to the mainstream mortgage interest rate data of key cities of Shell Research Institute, the mainstream first mortgage interest rate of the 103 key cities monitored in January 2022 was 5.56%, and the second set of interest rates was 5.84%, both down 8 basis points from December 2021.
As the pricing benchmark for residential mortgage interest rates, LPR (Loan Market Quotation Rate) with a maturity of more than 5 years has attracted special attention from residents, because the decline in LPR will not only reduce mortgage expenditure to a certain extent, but also stimulate sales in the real estate market.
During the visit, Times Finance learned that the reduction of mortgage interest rates is mainly affected by the reduction of LPR of more than 5 years.
On January 20, 2022, the National Interbank Lending Center authorized by the Chinese Bank to announce that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) is: 3.7% for 1-year LPR and 4.6% for 5-year LPR. The above LPR is valid until the next LPR is released.
On December 20 last year, the central bank issued a notice that the 1-year LPR was reduced from 3.85% to 3.8%, and the 5-year LPR remained unchanged at 4.65%.
"In fact, at the end of last year, some banks have begun to reduce the mortgage plus point part, and most of the standards we generally implement now are the first set of standards that add 110 basis points on the basis of LPR and the second set plus 130 basis points." On February 16, a credit manager of China Construction Bank told Times Finance that the interest rate of the first suite loan currently implemented by CCB in Nanjing is basically 5.7%-5.9%, and the second suite is 6.15%. ”
Times Finance learned in the interview that around November last year, the interest rate of the first suite of the local banks in Nanjing was generally more than 6.25%, the highest was 6.45%, and the highest of the second suite was 6.60%, and the overall trend was mainly rising. Now, after 3 months, the loan interest rate of many banks in Nanjing has dropped to 5.7-5.8%, and there is a great trend of decline.
"About 5.8%, the specific interest rate mainly depends on the partners of each property." A credit manager at the Bank of Nanjing told Times Finance that the waiting time for the loan in the second half of last year was relatively long, "Some banks can have 4 or 5 months, but now the lending speed is very fast, 1 or 2 months can come down." Individual banks even have a record of lending for 1-2 weeks. ”
In fact, not only Nanjing, But also Hefei, Nanchang, Dalian and other places have successively reported the news of mortgage interest rate reductions.
It is reported that at present, the mainstream first home loan interest rate of nanchang banks is about 5.75%, the interest rate of the second home loan is about 6.0%, and the lending cycle is within one month. Guangfa Bank, which has the lowest interest rate on first home loans, is even only 5.635%.
Banks in Dalian began to implement interest rate cuts, the interest rate of the first home loan was generally 5.25%, and the interest rate of the second home loan was generally 5.45%, which was reduced by 5 basis points along with the LPR with more than 5 years.
Xiao Yuan, who works in Hefei, told Times Finance that he had just gone to the Hefei Baohe branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China after the Spring Festival and asked, "Their current policy is that the interest rate of the first suite is 5.83%, and the interest rate of the second suite is 6.32%. The mortgage interest rates of the four major banks in Hefei are similar, minsheng Bank seems to be a little lower, about 5.75%, I still have to wait and see, I think the future mortgage interest rate will fall. ”
Is the value of bank stocks spring coming?
The data shows that the LPR above 5 years is 4.6%, which is the first time that the 5-year LPR has been lowered after 21 months in April 2020.
Minsheng Securities research report pointed out that the 5 basis point decline does not mean that monetary easing is weak, but that the interest rate cut operation is more refined. "We should pay attention to the timing of the rate cut: why we chose to do it before the Spring Festival holiday. The choice of the timing of the interest rate cut highlights the intention of the central bank: to stabilize the economy as soon as possible and stabilize the real estate as soon as possible. This closely echoes the "we can't delay, we must go ahead" mentioned by the Central Bank of the State Council's new press conference on January 18. ”
In the stock bar, some investors believe that the LPR is down, "for the banking sector, the opportunity is greater than the risk." ”
Image source: Stock bar screenshot
"The decline in 5-year LPR was small, so banks with a high share of housing loans were less affected." A private equity fund in Jiangsu told Times Finance that he is still more optimistic about the investment value of bank stocks, "There is still room for further relaxation in the future." Against the backdrop of tighter international liquidity, the central bank has maintained a policy rhythm of wide money and wide credit, which is also confirmed by the latest Monetary Policy Implementation Report, which provides strong support for the performance of bank stocks in the first quarter. ”
It is true that while the bank mortgage interest rate market in various places has begun to be "lively", the bank stocks in the secondary market have shown rare performance in recent years, and even once there was a saying that "bank stocks are coming in the spring".
On February 16, the Shenwan Bank Index closed at 3732.30 points with an increase of 0.99%, and only Lanzhou Bank (001227.SZ) fell among the 42 listed banks in the A-share market, while Bank of Hangzhou (600926.SH) rose first, closing at 14.74 yuan with an increase of 2.08%.
Wind data shows that since 2022, the Shenwan Bank Index has risen by 5.81%.
Image source: WIND screenshot
The above-mentioned Jiangsu private equity fund person believes that there are three main reasons for the rise of bank stocks in this round, "One is that the performance express disclosed by the bank is good; the second is that the growth stock sector has fallen significantly, and the funds have fled to the bank stocks and other value stocks to hedge; the third is policy support, and the pro-cyclical sectors such as bank stocks have benefited." ”
From the perspective of fund holdings, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the proportion of bank stocks held by the fund continued to decline slightly from the previous quarter, accounting for less than 3% of the holdings, ranking 23rd in the industry in terms of single-quarter increase. Times Finance noted that the allocation of bank stocks by the fund is selective, and the city commercial banks have turned into over-allocation, and the proportion of positions has increased significantly, indicating that the allocation value of the banking sector is increasing, especially the high-quality urban commercial banks with obvious location advantages.
The question is, can the rise in bank stocks continue? How long can it last?
Wang Jian, a researcher at Guosen Securities, believes that the banking sector market has started in the middle and late stages of wide credit or after the end, and the macro economy has shown clear signs of stabilization and improvement, and the macro-economy is the core variable of the banking sector market. "The market, after all, will rise in divergence, and then, will it end in consistency?"