Tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border continue, the United States and its allies warn russia of the possibility of military action against Ukraine at any time, and many countries have begun to evacuate their diplomats and citizens from Ukraine. But China has not announced the withdrawal of overseas Chinese, and the embassy is still functioning normally. As the security situation in Afghanistan deteriorated last year, China demanded that its citizens leave the country as soon as possible, and even arranged charter flights to pick them up. Why didn't China ask its citizens to evacuate this time? What is China's plan?
The U.S. closed its embassy in Kiev on Monday (February 14) to temporarily transfer operations to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, near Poland, and urged U.S. citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately. Washington said Russia has increased its military presence on the border with Ukraine and Belarus, and could launch an attack on Ukraine at any time.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in a national video address Monday that he had heard of the possibility of Russia's military operations on Feb. 16, and he announced that day would be designated as National Solidarity Day. He did not say how he got the information. Moscow denies claims that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine.
Given the ongoing tensions in Russia and Ukraine, dozens of other countries have also issued warnings in the past few days asking their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.
China does not withdraw overseas Chinese, calmly cope or nervously wait and see?
But China has not publicly demanded the evacuation of its citizens. Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday that China is closely monitoring developments in Ukraine when asked if China intends to evacuate its embassy personnel or whether it plans to evacuate its citizens at some point. He said that the Chinese embassy and consulate in Ukraine are currently working normally, and have issued consular reminders to guide local Chinese citizens and institutions to pay close attention to changes in the situation in Ukraine and enhance their awareness of security precautions.
In the face of the changing security situation, China's approach looks different from last year's in Afghanistan. At that time, after the Withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops began and the closure or reduction of staff at embassies and consulates in Afghanistan, China, although maintaining the operation of its embassies, issued many reminders urging Chinese citizens and institutions in Afghanistan to leave the country as soon as possible, and also arranged charter flights to help Chinese citizens evacuate.
Sun Yun, director of the Stimson Center's Institute of East Asian Studies, said: "China's assessment of the possibility of war (between Russia and Ukraine) is lower than that of Western countries. Even if Russia moves, China sees it not as a full-scale invasion, but as a limited conflict. Even if there is an invasion, unlike Afghanistan, China is unlikely to be targeted by Russia or Ukraine. ”
Some observers believe that if China announces the withdrawal of overseas Chinese or the evacuation of embassy staff, it will choose a position on the Issue of Ukraine, and that China and Russia have just met and issued a joint statement, which does not mention Ukraine, but supports Russia's security concerns about NATO's further eastward expansion.
One of Moscow's core demands on the Ukraine issue is that NATO promises never to accept Ukraine as a member, and deploys more than 100,000 troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border to pressure Ukraine on the grounds that Ukraine's accession to NATO will threaten Russia's security.
"As a strategic partner, China supports Russia, but on the other hand, China does not want a war because it would have a detrimental effect on the Chinese economy," said Timothy Heath, a senior fellow on international defense at the RAND Corporation, an American think tank.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin has said at press conferences over the past two days that China's position on the Ukraine issue is consistent and clear, believing that the settlement of the Ukrainian issue requires a return to the New Minsk Agreement, and all parties should remain rational and resolve relevant issues through dialogue and negotiation without intensifying tensions or escalating crises.
The New Minsk Agreement was a february 2015 peace agreement in the Belarusian capital to end the conflict between Kiev in eastern Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists, but it was not effectively implemented, and the parties to the conflict accused each other of violating the agreement's issues such as ceasefire, withdrawal of troops and political and economic arrangements.
Rodrik Keffptz, a senior researcher at the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies in Germany, said: "China does not want this crisis to escalate to the point where it can put China in trouble and limit China's strategic mobility. A protracted and controlled crisis that has captured the Attention and Resources of the West is a situation favored by the Chinese side. ”
Does China's non-withdrawal of overseas Chinese mean that there will be no war?
Bill Bishop, a U.S. expert on China, tweeted on Tuesday: "Nothing has changed at the Chinese Embassy in Kiev, perhaps indicating that China is confident that Russia will not attack [Ukraine]?" ”
In the past few days, at least on Chinese social media, many netizens believe that if China does not withdraw its overseas Chinese, it means that Russia and Ukraine will not be able to fight.
There may be some signs of a easing of tensions on Tuesday. Speaking at the White House, U.S. President Joe Biden told the Russian public that the United States and its allies posed no threat to them and that there was "plenty" of diplomatic space with Russia to avoid a conflict in Europe. But he also said that if Russia invades Ukraine, it will face serious consequences.
Earlier Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a joint news conference after a meeting with German Chancellor Schoelz that Russia had decided to withdraw troops partially from the Ukrainian border and saw room for further negotiations with the West on Moscow's security concerns.
However, Western leaders and Ukraine still have doubts about Russia's statement. President Biden said the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains high and that the United States has not verified that some of Russia's troops will return to their posts after the exercises.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss expressed similar sentiments earlier Tuesday, saying he would be wary of Russian false flag operations pretending to be provocative to Ukraine.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted not only to listen to what he has to say, but also to watch his actions, "If a real withdrawal follows, we will believe that a real easing of tensions has begun." ”
Keferptz of the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies said: "This crisis has now become a game between feint and counter-attack. The threat of intrusion has not been ruled out. Moscow is dominating the escalation, has many options at its disposal, and will continue to look for weaknesses in the West's response. ”
Sun Yun said whether Russia will invade Ukraine depends on whether the game between Putin and the West achieves the results he expected. "If he hits the target, there's no need to invade," she said. If [the invasion] had no serious consequences, he might have taken the risk. ”
To what extent would China support Russia if it invaded?
Sun Yun believes that beijing regards the crisis in Ukraine as "a useful event to divert U.S. pressure on China." If Russia does invade Ukraine, she said, "China will not openly support the invasion, because it is indeed a violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a sovereign country, but China will not openly oppose Russia." ”
He also believes that China will not necessarily openly support Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory, but may support Russian criticism that NATO has not considered Russia's security demands, or provide some intelligence support.
Some observers said that while China and Russia signed a series of cooperation agreements and issued joint statements, and said that there was "no forbidden area" for cooperation between the two countries, the two sides did not necessarily take great risks for each other.
Kefferptz believes China may provide economic support to Russia to help it deal with Western sanctions.