The Suns and centre-forward DeAndre Ayton failed to reach an early renewal, who took the greater risk?
Ayton thus became the first talent to enter a restricted free market since Greg Auden, who was plagued by injuries in 2007. Refusing to renew the contract early, both sides took risks. Ayton's value peaked in the playoffs last season, and he's betting that his market value won't slip. And the Suns had to pray that not renewing Ayton's contract would not have a long-term impact on the team, and that it would not cause Ayton to eventually leave.
Considering that the current value of the market for the center is not high, let's comprehensively analyze the risks of both sides.
Ayton's value peaked in the playoffs
At this time a year ago, if the Suns had given Ayton a top salary offer, probably everyone would have felt a premium. Although Ayton improved a lot in his second season, his offensive ability is still a big problem. He averaged 18.7 points per game that year, but his true shooting percentage was only 56.8 percent, which is higher than the league average but below the 60 percent expected by traditional centers.
The Suns played 8-0 during the 2020 rematch, but Ayton's offense did little. Ayton averaged just 15.0 points per game in those eight games, and the Suns were more efficient when Ayton came off.
The Suns' eight-game winning streak paved the way for their eventual decision to bring in veteran defender Chris Paul, who suddenly moved from rebuilding mode directly to title-contending mode.
Paul's arrival cleared the line of thought for Ayton's attack. Ayton thus reduced his individual singles in the elbow zone and low positions, and began to play more as a finisher in the block. Ayton's percentage of possession covers per possession increased by 30 percent, and his two-point shooting percentage increased from 55 percent in 2019-20 to 64 percent last season.
Although Ayton's new role is more suitable for the Suns' offense, it is also a role that is easier to replace. His stats last season were similar to Paul's former teammate Clint Capela, who received a two-year, $43 million contract extension in the offseason, and only $47 million, even with all the rewards, which is far from the top salary.
But in the playoffs, Ayton, with his ability to punish transgressions and misalignment, pulled himself away from Capela's type of center. His threat in this regard makes the Clippers dare not put up the five small lineups that have previously beaten the Jazz. In the Western Conference Series, the Clippers faced cover from Ayton and only switched sides in 11 percent of the rounds, compared to 30 percent against Jazz center Rudy Gobert.
Ayton's Risk: Is There a Top Salary Market Next Summer?
If Ayton can maintain his 2021 playoff performance, then there will be a team to give him a maximum salary offer next summer — of course, the price is not as attractive as the sun. But the team could recruit Ayton by giving him options for players two years later, trade rewards and upfront payouts. The Nets are good at this, having previously offered Aaron Crabbe, Taylor Johnson and Otto Porter with similar contract constructions, but then their original teams have all matched the contract.
However, such an offer came from the more stable market at that time. The price of quoting a restricted free agent is that the team's salary space was occupied in the first few days before the free agent market opened. The offer must be signed after the free market officially opens, after which the Suns have 48 hours to decide whether to match, and during this time, the team that offers Ayton cannot give other free agents a guaranteed amount of signing.
Now, with a large number of signings made within hours of the opening of the free agent market, the role of free agents with restricted offers is much smaller. No team has ever offered restricted free agents this summer, but several restricted free agents have changed their doors by signing first and then changing the court. This will require the consent of the mother team, and now the Suns will not be willing to do it.
As a result, Ayton's performance must far exceed the value of the top salary so that other teams will want to help him enter the full free market as soon as possible. If the team is not willing to give Ayton this top salary offer that will be matched by the Suns sooner or later, then Ayton loses the advantage of negotiating with the Suns.
If the Suns give Ayton a rare "top salary qualification offer," it would prevent other teams from giving Ayton a short contract. Such a "maximum salary qualification offer" has only been used once since its birth, that is, the contract signed by Jimmy Butler with the Bulls in 2015. If the Suns do this, they can guarantee that Ayton will get a full five-year salary cap when he wants to sign, while other teams will have to have a minimum of three years on contracts, regardless of options.
The Risk of the Sun: Breath Away Ayton?
Unless something incredible happens, Ayton will be part of the Suns' 2022-23 season. But there was no early contract extension, and his future with the team after that was confused.
Ayton's most extreme approach would be to sign a one-year qualification offer next year. This is unprecedented for a player as good as Ayton, but salary increases under the new collective bargaining agreement make this more likely. As a champion, he will receive a $16.4 million qualification offer before becoming a full free agent in 2023, when he was under 25.
More likely, Ayton's upset with the Suns will affect his third contract. This is the same as Gordon Hayward before, after becoming the main starting point of the team, his early contract renewal negotiations with the team broke down in 2013. In 2014, Hayward signed an offer with the Hornets, and the Jazz chose to match, but the Hornets gave him a contract that included player options, allowing Hayward to become a full free agent after three years. Hayward had just become an All-Star at the time, and he opted to sign a top-salary contract with the Celtics.
When the Suns discussed a contract extension with Ayton, what they really wanted to ask themselves was how much Ayton was worth when his next contract came. The key here may be left-right. On the one hand, Ayton is still young, which means he will still be at his peak by then. Even if the Suns complete the renewal of his contract with a completely five-year player-free option, Ayton would still be 29 years old when he entered the full free market.
But on the other hand, as athleticism declines, the value of center forwards declines faster than players in any other position. Think of Andre Drummond, who previously signed a contract extension for a top-paid rookie, but when he was next contracted, he was only 28 years old and only had a basic salary contract.
Ayton's technique puts him at a higher limit than Drummond's, but he's less likely to be worth more than a third contract, as many teams regret giving many contracts to players in their 30s. I don't think that's a valid reason to renew Ayton early without considering the negotiations.
Conclusion: The sun is more adventurous than Ayton
At the end of the day, I think there will be more Ayton as a top-paying player in the NBA next summer. That means the Suns don't renew Ayton now, and there are two possibilities of losing the gamble — either he'll sign a short offer with another team, or he'll accept a one-year qualification offer.
If the Suns' reluctance to give Ayton a maximum salary contract is due to boss Robert Savile's reluctance to spend money, then Ayton's acceptance of the qualification offer is not a bad thing. This will allow the Suns to expect to avoid luxury taxes in the 2022-23 season.
However, considering that the Suns are willing to renew Mikale Bridges at a reasonable price, I think the Suns do not want to give a premium contract because of Ayton's playoff performance. I think what the Suns want is to eventually sign Ayton on a contract that is slightly lower than the top salary, which is more in line with the performance of the first three seasons of Ayton's career.
Ayton does have the potential to replicate the 2020-21 regular season performance. However, I don't think it's worth it to risk that Ayton might play well and get offers from other teams, or that Ayton simply and rudely just signs a qualification offer.