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Newspaperman Liu Yadong A
According to US media reports on February 14, US Secretary of State Blinken announced the closure of the US Embassy in Kiev, Ukraine, on the same day on the grounds that "Russia may invade Ukraine at any time". A telephone record between the U.S. federal government and Congress shows that the embassy is destroying documents.
However, the Russian Defense Ministry said on the 15th that some troops stationed on the Russian-Ukrainian border will return to the base after completing the exercise. The current situation in Ukraine can be described as a cloud of strangeness, war and peace, like a cloud in the fog.
So, will there really be a fight between Russia and Ukraine? In this chaotic situation involving Russia, the United States, and Europe, who wants to fish in muddy waters?
A group of men sing a big drama (picture: one picture network)▼
Since the beginning of this year, there have been continuous cable reports from Ukraine, and one after another has attracted more attention than one - the United States said that Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border and is about to attack Ukraine; Ukraine has carried out military mobilization, the United States and Britain have withdrawn diplomats and their families from Ukraine; another batch of MILITARY aid from the United States has arrived in Ukraine, and so on.
The implication is that it seems that Russia and Ukraine are already in a situation of mountain rain and may go to war at any time.
Once the fighting begins, the pro-Russian militia in Eastern Ukraine should be the most enthusiastic
Confirmed the look, is not able to afford to provoke... (Photo: One Map Network)▼
So, will there really be a fight between Russia and Ukraine? In this chaotic situation involving Russia, the United States, and Europe, who wants to fish in muddy waters?
The War in Ukraine, the Story of Russia
It is often said that war is a continuation of politics and economics. Therefore, to explore exactly where Ukraine will go in the future, it is necessary to add these two considerations, supplemented by energy issues that are of great concern to all parties, in order to see the tip of the iceberg.
And if we look at it from Russia's perspective, we will find that maintaining the regional status quo is the best option for it.
Crimea has been swallowed, and Eastern Ukraine is under control
Russia can play a lot of cards, so why go to war head-on
Since the end of the Cold War, other countries other than the United States have illegally invaded, subverted, and even annexed another sovereign country, which is a heinous crime, and will not only be completely isolated internationally, but also fall into a blockade and embargo.
Therefore, no country will lightly start a war until it is a last resort. The same is true of Russia, which currently maintains good trade relations with many European countries.
War is a bottomless pit that must be filled with human lives
Russians who have experienced the war in Chechnya should have experienced it
(Photo: One Map Network)▼
After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the country built a cross-sea bridge across the Kerch Strait, which connects the mainland with the Crimean Peninsula, with mobilizing efficiency.
The bridge opened to traffic in 2018 and cost a total of 227.9 billion rubles
The Kerch Strait Bridge (Photo: Flickr) on the Kerch Strait
While consolidating its control over Crimea, Russia also basically controls the Sea of Azov, and with the addition of Sevastopol, a good port in the Black Sea, Russia basically has the right to control the sea from the mainland to the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.
Cargo ships carrying large quantities of goods only need to pass through the Bosphorus, The Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles under Turkish control to reach the Mediterranean Sea and trade with Europe.
Sevastopol is definitely Russia's top town on the Black Sea
In peacetime, it is a maritime stronghold; in wartime, it controls the Black Sea
It can be said that after taking Crimea in the face of multinational condemnation and European and American sanctions, Russia's goal of controlling the Black Sea has been basically achieved.
Although there are occasional exchanges of fire in the Eastern Utonbas region, it does not endanger the Russian mainland, but also serves as an actual buffer zone between itself and Europe (especially NATO countries), as long as the front does not shift, it is the most favorable situation for itself.
The Donbass region includes two oblasts, Donetsk and Luhansk
Considering that Ukraine's heavy industrial regions are basically located in the east and the west is mainly based on agriculture and animal husbandry, even if it occupies the whole territory, it is actually unprofitable. Therefore, Russia has little interest in invading Ukraine.
The former granary Ukraine mixed with this, there is no one
In recent years, Ukraine's agricultural and animal husbandry industry has been sluggish, and farmers have complained
(Pig killing protest, picture: one map network) ▼
In addition, "General Winter" has always been the best companion of the Russians. Since the fall of 2021, the price of natural gas in Europe has continued to soar, and Russia has made a lot of money by selling gas to Europeans.
However, General Winter always helped the Russians to assist at critical times
(Gas pipeline direction, figure: one map network) ▼
In fact, there is another mystery behind this - due to the high price of natural gas, many fertilizer producers in Europe have to stop production, which means that there may be insufficient fertilizer and reduced grain production in many parts of Europe this year.
If this is the case, Russia, as the world's second largest grain exporter and the world's largest wheat exporter, will not be able to make another profit.
Golden wheat, real money
If you can't finish eating, you will sell it to Europeans (picture: One Map Network)▼
In summary, no matter what the reason, at this point in time to choose to attack Ukraine and worsen Russian-European relations, is not a wise choice.
That being said, Russia has spared no effort in knocking out European bamboo levers. It has also sent a note to NATO, not only demanding that NATO not expand further and not engaging in any military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia, but even asking for NATO's deployment to return to the pre-May 1997 state.
It is impossible to spit out the meat eaten, to which NATO responded:
Countries that joined NATO after 1997 will never withdraw their troops
(Photo: Flickr)▼
At this point, Russia has played the extreme pressure method of "asking for a price", even if the Europeans "pay back money on the spot", they can still get some practical benefits, which can be called the biggest winner in this game.
The Europeans wanted to lie down, and the Germans and French were busy putting out the fire
Even though the Cold War is a thing of the past and the Soviet Union has been broken down for years, Europeans' fear of the torrent of Slavic steel seems to have been carved into the DNA, and it has not dissipated, making them particularly sensitive to the wind and grass in the direction of Eastern Europe.
In this chaos in Ukraine, Europeans also do not want a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Because once the war starts, they will have to give a platform to Ukraine, and this will mean endless trouble.
The wall of reality has collapsed, and the wall of mustard in the heart still exists
Outside NATO headquarters, there is still a remnant of the Berlin Wall (Photo: Wiki).▼
From the perspective of Europe as a whole, they have not yet recovered from the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, not only the number of confirmed cases has reached a new high, but inflation is also very serious.
Germany has even fallen into a technical recession, with GDP still failing to catch up with 2019 levels in 2021. France, while slightly better, is saddled with serious debt problems like its neighbor Italy.
The COVID-19 pandemic has changed many things permanently
(Photo: shutterstock)▼
Due to the severity of inflation in the United States, the Fed has claimed to be prepared to raise interest rates several times in 2022 to recover the dollar on the market; if the ECB does not raise interest rates, it will lead to capital outflows, and raising interest rates will make it more difficult for France and Italy to repay their own debts.
Plus is not, no is not added, dilemma - two ends blocked
(ECB, photo: shutterstock)▼
It can be said that the US interest rate hike operation has set up a posture to harvest European wealth, and once the interest rate is raised continuously, the economic situation in Europe will take a sharp turn for the worse.
Therefore, Europe naturally does not want to offend its important trading partner Russia at this juncture, so it certainly does not want war between Russia and Ukraine.
At present, it is an eventful autumn, and Russia and Ukraine are fighting, affecting Europe
(Ukrainian pro-EU rally, photo: shutterstock)▼
As the "engine of the European Union", Germany and France began to try their best to extinguish the fire after the tension in Ukraine, but due to the inconsistency of interests, the two countries actually have a little bit of a little bit in their hearts.
Because of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, anti-nuclear and nuclear abandonment have become the mainstream of German public opinion. At that time, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had supported nuclear power, also had to go along with the trend and began to gradually shut down nuclear power plants in the country.
Today, only three nuclear power plants remain in operation in Germany, and they will be completely shut down by the end of this year.
Rhine-Westphalia power station, Germany (Photo: One Map)▼
This has caused a lot of trouble for Germany, which is undergoing a green energy transition, and Merkel is trying to maintain the Nord Stream II line before retiring.
At present, Germany's energy is quite dependent on natural gas delivered by Russia. Despite criticism from the Green Party at home and pressure from the United States at home, the current German Chancellor Schoertz is still reluctant to include Nord Stream II in the sanctions list against Russia.
After having these two Nord Stream gas pipelines
Ukraine, Poland and other countries have a much weaker voice in tolls
Due to the shortage of gas in neighboring countries, Germany can even sell the gas bought from Russia at a higher price to make a small profit. If Russia and Ukraine go to war, Germany will have to pay for natural gas shipped by LNG ships from the United States, Qatar and other countries on the basis of the already very high price.
As a result, not only is the price unaffordable, but Germany also has to build LNG regasification units in the port, which is an additional burden.
Knowing this, it is not difficult to understand why Ukraine asked for support for offensive weapons, but Germany sent 5,000 helmets with its backhand...
The Americans can run after the X, but Germany is too close to Russia to run
So wear the helmet well, get into trouble and carry it yourself, don't pull me into the water
(Ukrainian military exercise, photo: Ministry of Defence)▼
The situation in France is a little more complicated. In mid-last year, france staged a coup d'état in Mali, a country of traditional power in West Africa, in which the military detained Transitional Government President Endor and others and formed a new military junta.
Mali's new government, which has close ties with Russia, has repeatedly claimed to want to invite Russian Wagner mercenaries to enter and expel French forces.
The new Mali government has just come to power, and it must take advantage of the situation
Otherwise, it will be done by the French secret operation
(Malian local armed forces, photo: wiki)▼
It should be known that more than 70% of France's energy is linked to nuclear power, and many nuclear power has been sold to the Germans, and Mali is one of the most important suppliers of uranium mines in France.
In this way, France must, on the premise of maintaining good Franco-Russian relations, demand that Russia not intervene in the situation in Mali and indirectly ensure its own energy security.
West Africa has always been used by France as its own backyard
If you don't want the Russians to stir up trouble, you have to make good relations
(French big flower arm in Mali, photo: MINUSMA)▼
In addition, general elections will be held in France in April this year. According to polls, the current president Macron has a 24% approval rating, far surpassing popular candidates such as Pekreder, Le Pen and Zemur.
According to the current situation, as long as there is no accident, Macron will most likely be re-elected, and there is naturally no need to risk provoking a war between Russia and Ukraine.
At this time, less tossing, stability, a high probability can win (figure: one map network) ▼
Since Germany and France have tacitly agreed that there can be no war between Russia and Ukraine, it is only natural that Scholz and Macron went to the United States and Russia a few days ago to conduct interspersed diplomacy and rushed to extinguish the fire.
The Anglo-Sali whistled, and Ukraine fell
Of course, there are also people who really want Russia and Ukraine to fight, that is, the United States on the other side of the ocean, and britain on the lonely sea.
Recently, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been very embarrassed. In 2020, the British government issued an epidemic prevention order that "no gatherings of more than two people" was issued, and he held a garden party of 30 people at the Prime Minister's official residence. As a result, it was besieged by opposition parties in turn, and several staff members in his team announced their departures.
Didn't expect that? 10 Downing Street can also drink and blow water (Photo: Flickr).▼
In order to maintain the position of prime minister and create his own tough image as much as possible, Boris has been quite tough on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, repeatedly warning Russia to consider itself "Churchill of the 21st century".
Churchill looked at it and wanted to hit someone (pictured: shutterstock).
But somewhat unkindly, despite Boris's high profile, British Deputy Prime Minister Dominique Raab said frankly that if Russia invaded, britain would be "highly unlikely" to send any troops to defend Ukraine.
The British attitude of "you go to die, I will withdraw first" has been pasted on the face.
"You go to die, I'll withdraw first" (Picture: Flickr)▼
As Russia's sworn enemy, the attitude of the United States is not surprising, and there are real economic considerations behind this - if Russia's gas supply to Europe is cut off, the Americans can sell their own shale oil and tight natural gas to Europe, further consolidating their energy-dollar hegemony.
Natural gas prices in the United States are much lower than in Europe
The Americans can't make it, and they don't want the Russians to make it
But despite the U.S. military aid to Ukraine last year worth more than $650 million, the Biden administration remains reluctant to overstiggle Russia.
On Jan. 19, Biden hinted that the United States and its allies might not take tough measures against Russia's "small-scale invasion of Ukraine." It also poured cold water on the Ukrainian government, which had previously advocated the West's tough response to Russia.
The United States has not acted, and NATO certainly will not
Ukraine has finally paid by mistake (pictured: shutterstock).
Since then, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has even demanded that the Western media should not overplay the Russian threat, personally clarifying at a press conference on January 29 that "Russia has not invaded Ukraine."
To be sure, the future game of Ukraine will continue to revolve around this model.
The people above are each pregnant with a ghost fetus
The following people continue to touch the fish (picture: One Map Network)▼
Resources:
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas
2.https://www.kylc.com/stats/global/yearly/g_gdp/2020.html
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream
4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group
The article comes from the Earth Knowledge Bureau, and the author has no dreams