This weekend, the Ningde era was once again on the hot search, this time not because of the big fall, but an alarm notice.
This week, the stock price of CATL fell sharply, falling by 17% in one week, and the market value evaporated by nearly 240 billion yuan. Along with the decline in the company's stock price, a series of online rumors have also swept in, which has alarmed investors.
Just now, the Ningde era finally struck! At noon on February 13, CATL issued a solemn statement saying that recently, a series of malicious rumors about THE NINGDE era being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and negotiating with Tesla have appeared on the online platform, which has triggered market misunderstandings and distortions and affected the reputation of enterprises. Rumors are unfounded and bad in nature. In order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, on February 12, 2022, our company has officially reported the case to the public security organs, and will pursue legal responsibility for rumor-mongers in accordance with the law. Subsequently, the relevant person in charge of the Ningde era replied to the Chinese reporter of the securities company that the case has been accepted by the public security organs.
According to the Shanghai Securities News, the relevant person in charge of Tesla said that the news of the collapse of the Ningde era and Tesla is indeed not true.
The NINGDE era reported the case to the public security organs
Recently, with the continuous decline in the stock price of the global lithium battery giant Ningde Era, a series of rumors related to it have also poured in, making it difficult to distinguish between true and false, and it is impossible to prevent it, and it has also made the investors who bought the company's shares panic and be confused.
In response to the internet rumors, "Ning Wang" finally took action, and the company said that it had officially reported the case to the public security organs and would pursue legal responsibility for the rumor-mongers according to law.
At noon on February 13, CATL issued a solemn statement saying that recently, a series of malicious rumors about THE NINGDE era being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and negotiating with Tesla have appeared on the online platform, which has triggered market misunderstandings and distortions and affected the reputation of enterprises. Rumors are unfounded and bad in nature. In order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, on February 12, 2022, our company has officially reported the case to the public security organs, and will pursue legal responsibility for rumor-mongers in accordance with the law.
In response to this matter, the Chinese reporter of the securities company interviewed the Ningde era for the first time, and the relevant person of the company told the reporter that the specific content is subject to the above statement. In addition, the above-mentioned person also told reporters that the report of malicious rumors belongs to the territorial report and has been accepted by the public security organs.
Brokerage China reporter noted that yesterday afternoon, a financial big V posted on foreign social media, "BYD received 204,000 battery orders from Tesla every year." What about Ningde? Subsequently, in a domestic stock exchange community, many investors reprinted and quoted the above rumors, and triggered many discussions.
However, there have been rumors in the market about BYD supplying Tesla blade batteries, but both Tesla and BYD are secretive. So far, neither side has publicly confirmed the news.
In addition, on Tuesday, the market came out that CATL was seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to consult the possibility of its sanctions by the United States. But soon, the company responded: "The matter of the online transmission company consulting the US agency about the possibility of being sanctioned is false information." ”
It fell more than 17% in a week and was also shorted by the chief broker
This week, the stock price of Ningde Times suddenly fell continuously, only 1 day of the 5 trading days was red, and 3 of the remaining 4 days fell by more than 5%. Overall, the Ningde era has fallen by 17.32% in a week, which is very rare since the company's listing, with a total market value of 239.1 billion yuan evaporated in a single week, and the latest market value shrank to 1.14 trillion yuan.
At the same time, a research report that bearish the Ningde era has also received market attention. On February 10, Beijing Capital Securities released an article entitled "How long can the Ningde era fall?" A Quantitative Analytical Perspective" report. The report believes that from the perspective of short-term market sentiment, the future rise and fall of the Ningde era can be analyzed, and the stock price trend of Guizhou Moutai in 2021 can be referred to. Through fitting, it can be judged that the adjustment of the Ningde era may not be over, and there may still be 20% downside in the future, and it is recommended to sell.
Capital Securities said that the Catalonia era is facing a similar market environment in Guizhou Moutai in 2021: the logic of the rise has been challenged; the US Treasury yield has risen sharply; the stock price has soared, and the track is highly crowded, forming a negative feedback of more killing more.
Wei Zhichao, the chief creator of the report and chief economist of Beijing Capital Securities, told the Chinese reporter of the securities company: "Our reports are all objective research and adhere to independence, and this report is objective and neutral. The Ningde era has recently received high market attention and great divergence, so we have studied this."
Wei Zhichao was originally scheduled to hold a conference on February 11 at 8 p.m. with the theme of "How Long Can the Ningde Era Fall?" A Quantitative Analytical Perspective" conference call, but suddenly canceled in the middle. He told reporters, "For some reason, tonight's call was canceled first. ”
However, after the publication of this research report, it also caused great controversy. Some buyer investment researchers explained to the media that directly comparing Guizhou Moutai is a common research method used by macro and strategy teams, and these methods to explain the performance of individual stocks are often unreliable.
On the evening of February 11, Wei Zhichao's research report has been "urgently removed from the shelves" of various research platforms, and the relevant articles on the public account have also been deleted.
Most research institutions are still optimistic about the Ningde era
It should be pointed out that although the stock price has retraced from the high, the performance of the Ningde era is still quite good. At the same time, the vast majority of research institutions have given companies a buy or overweight rating.
On the evening of January 27, the global lithium battery "overlord" Ningde Times disclosed the performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit in 2021 will be 14 billion yuan - 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150.75% - 195.52% year-on-year. Since 2019, the net profit of CATL has reached a new record high for three consecutive years.
This performance far exceeded market expectations. In the previous 180 days, more than 40 research institutions made predictions for the full year performance of CATL in 2021, and the expected average attributable net profit was 11.2 billion yuan.
According to the previously disclosed financial report, the net profit of CATL in the first three quarters of 2021 was 7.751 billion yuan. According to this calculation, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the net profit of CATL was between 6.249 billion yuan and 8.749 billion yuan, setting a new single-quarter profit record, an increase of 91%-168% compared with the third quarter of 2021 (3.267 billion yuan), and an increase of 158% -261% over the fourth quarter of 2020 (2.422 billion yuan).
In the past 30 days, more than 10 research institutions have issued research reports, and the vast majority of institutions have given CATL buy and overweight ratings, and another institution has given a strong recommendation rating.
Nomura Oriental International believes that the main reason for the rapid growth of CATL's performance is the increase in the penetration rate of global electric vehicles/energy storage systems, as well as the company's effective cost control. The global electric vehicle market will maintain strong growth in 2022, while the company will continue to occupy a leading position in the market, maintain the company's overweight rating, and raise the target price to 722 yuan / share (previously 700 yuan / share), corresponding to 60 times the 2023 EPS.
China Merchants Securities said that the company is in the stage of global expansion, the balance sheet is strong, and the company's strict accounting and financial policies (such as depreciation, after-sales service fees, etc.) are still expected to remain stable in the future. Maintain the "Highly Recommended -A" rating and target price of $680-740.
Editor-in-charge: Tactical Constant