In the early days of today, the main line of high prosperity track stocks continued to withdraw, military industry, BIPV, salt lake lithium, chips, etc. fell sharply, sodium ion batteries performed strongly, three-child, assisted reproduction concept stocks were active throughout the day, the afternoon anti-viral concept changed, and the mask concept stocks rushed higher across the board. Liquor stocks rebounded near the end of the session, with Kweichow Moutai up more than 3%.
As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.58% to close at 3361 points; the Shenzhen component index fell 0.05% to close at 14086 points; and the ChiNext index rose 1.61% to close at 3284 points. In the upward trend of foreign capital, northbound funds bought a net of 8.053 billion yuan throughout the day, ending the previous three consecutive days of net selling.
Ningde and Moutai strongly guarded the plate
It is worth noting that the foreign capital that sold heavily a few days ago bought 8 billion yuan today. The first choice of foreign capital is naturally the core assets. Core assets such as Guizhou Moutai and China Merchants Bank began to rebound, and the Mao index also ushered in a long-lost rise. Sometimes I can't help but ask: Why does not a small amount of foreign capital always affect the trend of Big A?
In addition, the reason for the turning red of the ChiNext index today, the Ningde era can be said to be indispensable. The Ningde era led a group of sodium ion concept stocks to go against the trend.
As for the reason for the rise, on the news side, according to the WeChat public account of the Ningde era, the Ningde era sodium-ion battery conference will be held at 15:30 on July 29.
In terms of policy, on July 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau also proposed to accelerate large-scale test demonstrations of technologies such as sodium-ion batteries in the guidance on the development of new energy storage.
And what are the advantages of this sodium-ion battery over lithium batteries? It is understood that the first is the large reserves, compared to lithium ore, sodium ions can be said to be much richer, which makes its cost lower. From the geological content point of view, sodium reserves are more than 1,000 times lithium, and the price is even cheaper than lithium iron phosphate after the final scale application.
The reason for the development of sodium-ion batteries in the Ningde era should be to see that in the context of the rising price of lithium resources, the gross profit margin is under pressure, and the sodium-ion battery should be a technical reserve of Ningde.
However, there are also views that combined with the characteristics of sodium-ion batteries, it is expected that there will be application prospects in the field of energy storage and two-wheelers in the early stage, but it is difficult to replace the status of lithium batteries.
The Fed decision hit hard
Regarding the Fed's interest rate decision, I think you should still remember the June one. At that time, the Fed's unexpected hawkish statement caused a huge shock in the market.
Fast forward to July, and the Results of the Fed's July Interest Rate Will Be Announced Soon.
At 02:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 29, the Fed will announce the policy statement of the interest rate decision, and at 02:30, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference. Investors can then look for signals about when the Fed will start scaling back asset purchases.
Regarding the meeting, the Fed is widely expected to have a lengthy discussion about slowing down the size of its monthly bond purchases, but there may not be much detail.
If the Fed fails to send a clear signal on the drawdown in debt purchases, or if Fed Chairman Powell's dovish wording, the dollar could take a hard hit and gold prices are expected to climb sharply.
There is also a view that the Fed has been discussing the scale of debt purchases, discussing how to reduce bond purchases, but considering the recovery stage that the United States is in, they are still in a wait-and-see state. So, they're going to try to hold on, but they're going to show some hawks.
In fact, the key to everything lies in the relationship between inflation and economic recovery. The Fed has always believed that "inflation is only temporary." ”
Notably, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that inflation risks would prove to be more than temporary, which would prompt central banks to take preemptive action. However, in its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF expects the US economy to grow by 7.0% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022, both of which are significantly higher than expected in April.
Only if the economy maintains a good recovery, inflation in the United States will not become hyperinflation.
Outlook for the future market of A-shares
Regarding the future market of A-shares, CITIC Securities pointed out that concerns about extreme industry policies have led to a resonance of negative sentiment among internal and external investors, and A-shares have been in a tight balance of market liquidity in the early stage, which amplifies the impact of short-term sentiment.
However, the possibility of extreme policy landing is low, the possibility of negative feedback of market liquidity is small, while the trend of steady improvement in domestic fundamentals remains unchanged, and macro liquidity is still loose, it is expected that after the panic of domestic and foreign investors is vented, A shares will usher in the best buying point in the second half of the year.
In addition, it is worth noting that the current news surface is a key factor driving the market, so the market is more likely to adjust the shock, increase the risk release efforts, and find a more suitable balance position.
In the future, we can focus on three main lines, one is to adhere to the main line of growth, but we must choose a good company. The second is the gradual layout of the consumer industry that has undergone a long adjustment at a low price. The third is the logic of prosperity diffusion to find sub-industries and stocks with growth attributes and good sustainability in the cycle.