Zhongxin Jingwei, February 12 (Xue Yufei) Since 2022, the "chill" of fund issuance has not dissipated, and the poor return has reduced the subscription confidence of "basic people". According to Wind statistics, as of February 9, 2022, no newly established fund has subscribed to more than 100,000 households this year, and even some have only a few hundred subscriptions, and at the same time, many newly established funds such as E Fangda and Hui Tianfu have extended the fundraising period. Compared with the same period in 2021, 49 newly issued funds at that time had more than 100,000 subscriptions, of which 2 exceeded one million.
How long will the fund offering cool down last? When will the mood of the "Ki-min" be restored? What potential sectors should we look for in the future?
100,000 households into the threshold
During the Spring Festival, the green stock market and dismal fund returns have become a hot topic of discussion in some families when visiting relatives and friends. A netizen shared: "During the Spring Festival, I had dinner with relatives, they were all talking about the fund losing money, I said I earned, they were very surprised, I said I bought it for two years." Another netizen also said that the fund he bought two years ago was also "red", but the "medical base" bought in 2021 dragged down everything.
The fund's loss situation has not improved significantly after the holiday, and has triggered some negative sentiment in the industry. On February 10, there were rumors that there was a large insurance fund special account to redeem the fund shares of "public first sister" Gülen, and it was said that the fund managed by Gülen was redeemed for 40 billion yuan. On the same day, Gülen's Central European Fund urgently debunked rumors that the "large redemption" spread on the Internet was false news.
Status of newly established funds in February 2022. Source: Wind
Similar sentiment has dragged down the issuance of new funds. According to Wind data, since the holiday (February 7), 2 funds without subscription data have been removed, and a total of 13 new funds have been issued in the market, with 3 subscriptions exceeding 10,000 households, and none of them exceeding 100,000. The number of subscribers to Fortune Tianxu Equilibrium A/C, managed by fund manager Cao Wenjun, was the largest, reaching 71,861, but the net subscription amount was not high, about RMB288 million; the number of subscribers of E Fangda Growth Power A/C was 20,042, with a net subscription of about RMB411 million; and the number of subscribers of China Merchants Energy Transformation Hybrid A/C was 11,469, with a net subscription of about RMB350 million.
Among the above 13 funds, SPDB AXA and the allocation of 6 months held A/C the smallest number of subscriptions, only 643, the net subscription amount of about 209 million yuan. In addition, the number of subscribers who held A/C in Boshi Returns, China-Canada Leading Selection A/C, Oriental Red Zhaorui Selected for 18 months and Hongde Industrial Upgrading A/C was low, with 2340 households, 2258 households, 3563 households and 2437 households respectively.
According to Wind data statistics, a total of about 149 funds were established in January 2022, and none of the funds subscribed to more than 100,000 households, reaching a total of about 41 more than 10,000 households. With the addition of the above 3, there are 44 funds with more than 10,000 subscriptions this year, of which only 6 have more than 50,000 households. Among all the funds, Cinda Australia YinZhiyuan had the largest number of subscribers with a three-year holding period of A/C, reaching 74,170, with a net subscription amount of about 4.762 billion yuan.
Comparing the current situation with the grand situation of fund subscriptions at the beginning of 2021, it will be found that the subscription cooling is very obvious. According to Wind data statistics, from January 1 to February 9, 2021, the number of newly issued funds subscribed to more than 10,000 abounded, and the number of new issued funds exceeded 100,000, reaching 49. Among them, the subscription number of E Fangda competitive advantage enterprises A/C and Guangfa Xingcheng A/C exceeded one million households, about 2.1939 million and 1.3642 million respectively, with a net subscription of about 14.849 billion yuan and 11.953 billion yuan.
The fund that sold out also lost money
The decline in the number of subscribers to newly issued funds may be related to the decline in the current fund's returns.
According to Wind statistics, as of February 11, 2022, of the 2059 funds established since 2021, only 800 funds have a unit net value greater than or equal to 1 yuan, that is, only about 40% of the funds are in a floating profit state, and the remaining 60% are floating losses. Specifically, among the 2059 funds, there are more than 1,000 with a net unit value between 0.8 yuan and 1 yuan, and 170 funds with a net value of less than 0.8 yuan.
Judging from the current market, even those funds that sell out in 2021 have dismal returns. For example, the number of subscriptions for E Fangda Competitive Advantage Enterprise A/C exceeded 2 million households, but according to the 2021 Quarterly Report, during the reporting period, the net unit value of E Fangda Competitive Advantage Enterprise A was 0.9204 yuan, while as of February 11, 2022, the net unit value fell to 0.8033 yuan, a decline of 19.67% since its inception.
Similarly, as of February 11, Hui Tianfu, which had subscribed to 3.06 million households, had a net unit value of 0.8976 yuan, a decrease of 10.24%; Guangfa Xingcheng A/C, which had subscribed 1.36 million households, had a net unit value of 0.9238 yuan, a decrease of 7.62%; hui Tianfu Digital Future, which had subscribed 1.04 million households, had a unit net value of 0.8403 yuan, a decrease of 15.97%.
Not only public offerings, but also private funds have also suffered blows in this market adjustment. According to the data of the private placement ranking network, as of the end of January this year, the net value of more than 1,200 private fund products fell below 0.8 yuan, of which more than 300 net values fell below 0.7 yuan. According to incomplete statistics, as of January 28 this year, the unit net value of more than 50 private equity products under the well-known private equity manager and Oriental Harbor Danbin fell below the traditional warning line of 0.8 yuan, and the net value of 6 other products fell below the traditional stop loss line of 0.7 yuan.
Although 10 billion private equity Hefu Investment subscribed for the shares of fund products managed by the company with its own funds of 40 million yuan before the Spring Festival, on February 11, the company announced that the unit net value of its Hefu Flexible Hedging No. 9 Phase A Private Securities Investment Fund fell to 0.8774 yuan on February 10, 0.88 yuan below the early warning line, touching the warning.
Can it usher in a market repair?
In order to stabilize market sentiment, the wave of self-purchases swept the fund industry this year. Before the Spring Festival, dozens of funds announced that they would initiate self-purchase have reached dozens, and institutional data shows that from January 26 to 28 alone, 22 public funds announced self-purchase, with a scale of more than 1.4 billion yuan. On February 8, after the holiday, Penghua Fund, Bank of China Fund and Golden Eagle Fund announced their own purchase, with a total subscription amount of 180 million yuan. In addition, many funds such as E Fangda have relaxed subscription restrictions.
Huaxi Securities believes that when the market falls to a certain extent or lasts for a period of time, the public fund to open a wave of self-purchase, is often one of the signals of the market to build the bottom, for example, from February to April 2020, the net subscription scale of public funds is about 1.3 billion yuan, and since April of that year, the A-share market has begun to pick up. "On the one hand, the self-purchase of public funds will inject incremental funds into A-shares; on the other hand, self-purchase also shows the confidence of institutions in the long-term healthy and stable development of the capital market, which will help stabilize market sentiment."
"The current market expectations for the Fed's interest rate hikes have been relatively sufficient, and the overseas policy shift will not restrict the domestic monetary policy orientation, and the market will still be in the 'wide money' window period in the next 1-2 quarters." Popular fund products are gradually relaxed from subscription restrictions, and resident funds are expected to continue to enter the market after the Spring Festival. Huaxi Securities analyzed.
In the face of the current market, there have been a number of public and private companies shouting in various forms. In the face of media reports that the net value of the product units of Oriental Harbor fell below the warning line, Dan Bin responded on Weibo on February 11: "At present, our products have done a good job of corresponding risk control, the net value is relatively stable, I and the trading department have always maintained a cautious response, and there is more panic in the market under the current shock market... Oriental Harbor has experienced a bad period of the stock market such as the 2008 financial crisis, the liquor crisis, the 2015 stock market crash, etc., and the company has developed better after each time! ”
On February 10, Cinda Australia Bank Fund said in a "Letter to Investors" that the recent market correction is a concentrated catharsis of short-term irrational emotions, and it is expected that the A-share market will decline sharply this year. We should cherish the ChiNext board below 2800 points and the Shanghai Composite Index below 3400 points, and the industries with deep declines in the early stage have the inherent momentum of short-term rebound, and it is recommended to hold them patiently. In terms of investment layout, we can pay attention to the following three aspects: one is the oversold industries such as transportation, tourism, aquaculture, and real estate chain; the other is the track of green electricity, new energy, wind power, photovoltaics and other tracks in the field of "carbon neutrality", and the long-term development logic of these sectors has not changed; the third is the counter-cyclical sectors such as environmental protection and construction, and the certainty of performance growth will be more fully reflected this year.
On February 9, Yao Zhipeng, managing director of Harvest Fund, looked forward to the market in 2022, he believes that in the fields of automotive, electronics, advanced manufacturing and other fields, China can rely on the comparative advantage of engineer dividends to eventually catch up with and surpass major developed economies; intelligent hardware represented by smart cars, autonomous and controllable with industrial chain security as the demand, and new consumption represented by Generation Z are accumulating medium-term upward momentum. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.) )
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Editor-in-Charge: Wei Wei